Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide monetary and military assistance to Ukraine, including air defense systems. The Estonian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced on June 11 that Estonia will provide an undisclosed number of Mistral man-portable short-range air defense systems and missiles to Ukraine as part of a new military assistance package. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced during the Ukrainian Recovery Conference in Berlin on June 11 that the European Union (EU) will transfer roughly 1.5 billion euros ($1.6 billion) worth of profits from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine in July, of which Ukraine will allocate 90 percent to defense spending and 10 percent to reconstruction. Von der Leyen stated that the EU will also transfer an additional 1.9 billion euros ($2 billion) to Ukraine from the EU’s Ukraine Facility mechanism, which is a separate fund that provides for the EU to transfer up to 50 billion euros ($53.7 billion) to Ukraine between 2024 and 2027. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz reiterated during the Ukrainian Recovery Conference that Germany will deliver a Patriot air defense system to Ukraine in the coming weeks and announced that Germany will also deliver an IRIS-T air defense system, an unspecified number of Gepard self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, and an unspecified number and type of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine in the coming weeks and months. The German MoD initially announced the transfer of this third Patriot system in April 2024. The New York Times, citing senior US administration and military officials, reported on June 11 that US President Joe Biden recently approved the transfer of another Patriot system to Ukraine following a series of high-level meetings and internal debates regarding the best ways to meet Ukraine’s need for additional air defenses. Unnamed US officials stated that the new system could be deployed to the frontline within several days depending on any maintenance or modifications that the system may need, as the system is currently stationed in Poland.
Danish authorities arrested a Danish-Russian dual citizen accused of having connections to Russian intelligence services, which is likely part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to re-intensify its hybrid campaign against Western countries. The Danish Broadcasting Corporation (DR) reported on June 11 that Danish authorities arrested an unidentified woman with dual Danish-Russian citizenship related to a recent investigation into the woman’s connections to Russian foreign intelligence. DR reported on June 3, citing leaked documents from Western intelligence services, that the women’s legal aid clinic for Russian speakers received at least 338,000 Danish kroner (about $49,000) from the Russian Fund for the Support and Protection of the Rights of Compatriots Living Abroad (Pravfond), which DR describes as closely linked to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The Guardian, which saw the same leaked documents, reported that Pravfond’s leadership has multiple Russian intelligence agents, including longtime SVR officers Vladimir Pozdorovkin and Anatoly Sorokin. The Guardian reported that Pravfond operates throughout Europe and that Pozdorovkin specifically oversees Pravfond’s operations in Nordic and Baltic countries while Sorokin oversees operations in the Middle East, Moldova, and Transnistria. DR reported and that the woman is a “central figure” in Denmark’s Russian-speaking community and noted she has traveled to Russia and elsewhere for conferences with Pravfond participation or sponsorship. The Kremlin has recently intensified its hybrid campaigns in Europe, and the Kremlin has been leaning into a narrative about protecting Russians and Russian-speakers outside of Russia — often called “compatriots abroad” — as part of its wider toolkit of hybrid manipulations. The “compatriots abroad” narrative sets informational conditions for the Kremlin to justify hybrid operations or even direct interference against countries it claims do not adequately protect so-called Russian “compatriots” should these countries take actions unfavorable to the Kremlin. DR noted that several European intelligence sources stated that the Kremlin aims to use counseling and assistance centers — of which Pravfond funds at least 34 in 21 countries — to justify direct interference in other countries.
Key Takeaways:
- Ukraine’s Western allies continue to provide monetary and military assistance to Ukraine, including air defense systems.
- The Kremlin continues efforts to codify legal instruments and repressive measures intended to broadly censor foreigners and foreign organizations in Russia.
- A prominent Kremlin-awarded Russian milblogger channel announced that it opened a second “media school” in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, likely to support Kremlin efforts to expand its influence in the international information space, particularly in Central Asia.
- Danish authorities arrested a Danish-Russian dual citizen accused of having connections to Russian intelligence services, which is likely part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to re-intensify its hybrid campaign against Western countries.
- Kremlin newswire TASS reported on June 11 that the former Head of the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) Military Academy, Grigory Molchanov, was appointed Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
- Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk and northwest of Avdiivka.
- Russia may have suffered a damaged or destroyed military naval vessel in the Barents Sea.
- Belarusian officials continue to implicate themselves in the illegal deportation of Ukrainian children to Belarus and their re-education in Belarusian programs.
For full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-11-2024.