Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a “final” end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood. Putin met with Orban in Moscow and reportedly discussed Ukraine and the possibility of a negotiated ceasefire agreement. Putin explicitly rejected Russian participation in any meaningful negotiations on a ceasefire agreement on July 4 in a departure from his usual feigned interest in negotiations, and Putin notably outright rejected any negotiated ceasefire in a press conference with Orban on July 5. Putin stated that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine should not result in a temporary ceasefire since this would allow Ukraine to regroup and rearm and that Russia instead favors a “complete” and “final” end to the conflict. Putin is currently unwilling to accept anything short of the destruction of Ukrainian statehood and identity, however, as his remarks and demands have consistently illustrated.
Putin is demanding both the surrender of a significant portion of Ukraine’s territory and people to Russian occupation and Ukrainian military capitulation in advance of any negotiations on an end-state to the war. Putin called for the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from “Donbas and Novorossiya” as a prerequisite for ending the war during his press conference with Orban — a reference to Putin’s June 14 demand for Ukraine to recognize the Russian occupation of occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts and for Ukraine to surrender all territory that Russia does not currently hold in the four oblasts. The imagined borders of “Novorossiya” are disputed among Russian ultranationalists, however, and Putin and the Kremlin have routinely indicated that they hold aims of territorial conquest beyond the administrative boundaries of the four oblasts that Russia has illegally annexed. Putin also invoked concerns on July 4 about Ukrainian military reconstitution and expansion during a potential ceasefire to call for Ukraine’s “irreversible” “demilitarization” as a prerequisite to negotiations. Putin has long called for Ukraine’s “demilitarization” — a demand that Ukraine abandon its ability to resist Russian aggression so that Putin can freely impose his will upon Ukraine. Putin would almost certainly use Ukraine’s capitulation to achieve his other goal of deposing Ukraine’s democratically elected government and replacing it with a pro-Russian government and a political system to his liking.
Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the soundest course of action for degrading Putin’s confidence in and commitment to his desired end state for his war of aggression against Ukraine. Putin’s rejection of any ceasefire indicates that he is increasingly confident in his assessment that Russia can pursue victory by continuing creeping advances in Ukraine, outlasting Western support for Ukraine, and winning a war of attrition against Ukrainian forces. Putin’s demands, achieved through either Ukraine’s capitulation or the protracted war he assesses Russian forces can successfully wage, are not consistent with the survival of an independent Ukrainian state or the Ukrainian people, nor are they compatible with NATO’s vital security interests. Putin’s confidence in Russia’s ability to encourage capitulation or win a protracted war of attrition is based on the assessment that Ukraine will not be able to conduct operationally significant counteroffensive operations. The West must hasten to provide Ukraine the support it needs to conduct counteroffensive operations to invalidate Putin’s calculus and avoid protracting the war more than necessary to secure a peace acceptable to Ukraine and its partners.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian President Vladimir Putin used a meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on July 5 to oppose a negotiated ceasefire altogether and expressed his commitment to pursuing a “final” end to the war that would achieve his goal of destroying Ukrainian statehood.
- Putin is demanding both the surrender of a significant portion of Ukraine’s territory and people to Russian occupation and Ukrainian military capitulation in advance of any negotiations on an end-state to the war.
- Ukrainian counteroffensive operations that liberate operationally significant territory remain the soundest course of action for degrading Putin’s confidence in and commitment to his desired end state for his war of aggression against Ukraine.
- Putin’s rejection of any ceasefire agreement contradicts the Kremlin’s previous effort to place the onus for negotiations on the West and Ukraine.
- Putin attempted to portray Orban as an EU representative who can speak on the EU’s behalf – a claim that EU officials explicitly denied.
- Recent Russian domestic polls suggest that Kremlin information operations are influencing domestic Russian support of the war in Ukraine.
- These Russian polls indicate that Russians who criticize the conduct of the war in Ukraine still support the war due to patriotism and disenfranchisement.
- Many of Russia’s “non-opponents” to the war have criticisms that parallel those of Russian ultranationalist milbloggers, yet they lack the ultranationalists’ close attention to the war and desire for political change in support of Russian war aims.
- Ukrainian forces conducted successful drone and missile strikes against targets in Tambov and Rostov oblasts and Krasnodar Krai on July 4 and 5.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Toretsk, and Donetsk City.
- Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials continue to portray themselves as providing adequate medical care and other support for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine amid ongoing criticisms that the Russian military command sends injured soldiers to fight on the frontline.
For full report: https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5-2024