The Kremlin continues to offer no evidence to support its claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence on the night of December 28 to 29 and even rejected the notion that it should provide evidence. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 30 that he does not think there “should be any evidence” of a massive Ukrainian drone strike targeting Putin’s residence, likely referring to his residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast.[1] Peskov responded to a follow-up question about whether the drone strike left any debris that could be evidence, stating that he “cannot say” and that this question is a matter for the Russian military.
The Kremlin appears to be trying to correct some of the discrepancies in its previous claims about the alleged December 28-29 strikes. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) initially claimed on the morning of December 29 that Russian forces downed 41 drones over Novgorod Oblast on the night of December 28 to 29, fewer than half the number that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed targeted Putin’s residence in the oblast on the same night.[2] Several Russian and Western sources noted the discrepancy between Lavrov’s claim and the MoD’s claim at the time.[3] The Russian MoD issued an updated situational report (SITREP) on the evening of December 29, claiming that Russian forces downed 91 total drones that were targeting Putin’s residence, including 41 drones over Novgorod Oblast itself and 41 drones over Bryansk Oblast and one over Smolensk Oblast that the MoD claimed had been flying toward Novgorod Oblast.[4] Valdai is roughly 210 kilometers from the Smolensk Oblast border and roughly 435 kilometers from the Bryansk Oblast border. Bryansk and Smolensk oblasts each contain legitimate military and defense industrial targets that Ukraine plausibly could have targeted on the night of December 28 to 29, and Ukraine has struck objects in Bryansk and Smolensk oblasts before.[5] Any instance of Ukrainian drones flying in Bryansk and Smolensk oblast airspace thus does not dispositively mean the drones were heading towards Novgorod Oblast. Moreover, ISW observed no reports or evidence that Russian forces downed Ukrainian drones over Bryansk or Smolensk oblasts on the night of December 28 to 29 in any event.
ISW has still not observed any of the footage or reporting that typically follows Ukrainian deep strikes to corroborate the Kremlin’s claims of Ukrainian strikes threatening Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast.[6] Russian and Western sources continue to report counter-indicators to a Ukrainian deep strike targeting Novgorod Oblast. Russian opposition and insider sources reported that residents of Valdai and the surrounding areas did not hear or observe sounds of drones operating or air defenses activating, both of which the residents reported they usually hear, even during previous Ukrainian strikes far from Valdai itself.[7] Le Monde reported on December 30 that a source close to French President Emmanuel Macron stated that there is “no solid evidence” to corroborate Russian claims about the strike against Putin’s personal residence, even after French authorities cross-checked information with its partners.[8]
Kremlin officials are using the alleged Ukrainian strike against Novgorod Oblast to justify Russia’s continued insistence that both Ukraine and the West capitulate to Russia’s original demands from 2021 and 2022. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that the Kremlin will “harden” its negotiating position following the alleged Ukrainian strike but would not disclose this new stance publicly.[9] Peskov stated that Russia is not withdrawing from the negotiation process but will continue dialogue primarily with the United States.[10] Several Russian State Duma deputies echoed Peskov’s statements, with one deputy calling for Russia to present a US-Russian peace plan to Ukraine as a fait accompli and another adding that Russia can “only” negotiate Ukraine’s capitulation now.[11] Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov used a December 30 interview with Russian state media outlet Russia Today (RT) to reiterate Russia’s original war demands that Russian President Vladimir Putin laid out when launching the full-scale invasion in 2022, namely demands for Ukraine’s neutrality, demilitarization (reductions in the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), and denazification (the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government).[12] Lavrov repeated demands that Ukraine and the West recognize Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea as part of the Russian Federation. Lavrov stated that Russia is “convinced” that the ultimatums that Russia submitted to the United States and Europe in December 2021 can serve as a “starting point” for peace talks. Many of the original Russian demands that Lavrov repeated go against the last publicly available version of the US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan.[13] ISW assessed on December 29 that the Kremlin may intend to use the alleged Ukrainian strike against Putin’s residence to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.[14] Kremlin statements about Russia’s 2021 ultimatums, which would have amounted to the destruction of the NATO alliance and required an overhaul of Europe’s security architecture, continue to signal that Russia’s goals in the war are not confined to Ukraine and that a peace deal that does not address Russian demands of NATO and the West outside of Ukraine will not satisfy Russia.[15]
Russian forces continue to increase the range of their drones to strike deeper into Ukraine, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent requirements for traditional air defense systems. The Russian Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies published geolocated footage on December 29 showing Russian forces conducting a drone strike against a Ukrainian Mi-24 helicopter at a forward base northeast of Bilyky, Poltava Oblast (150 kilometers from the Russia–Ukraine border) and an An-26 transport aircraft at the Mykolaiv International Airport (60 kilometers from the Russian-occupied Kinburn Spit).[16] An OSINT analyst reported that satellite imagery has shown the An-26 parked at the airport since 2022, indicating that it is a retired airframe.[17] Ukrainian electronic and radio warfare expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov assessed that Russian forces conducted the strikes with Molniya drones guided through Starlink, rather than through mobile networks, and stated that Russian forces either used sabotage and reconnaissance groups to launch the drones from a closer position or mothership drones to extend the drones’ range.[18] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces installed LTE modems on the Molniya drones to extend their range.[19] The recent long-range drone strikes exploit Ukraine’s scarcity of air defense systems, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent need for point-defense air defense systems to down drones, as electronic warfare (EW) systems are likely insufficient to defend Ukraine’s critical infrastructure from such a geographically pervasive threat.
Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin continues to offer no evidence to support its claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence on the night of December 28 to 29 and even rejected the notion that it should provide evidence.
- Kremlin officials are using the alleged Ukrainian strike against Novgorod Oblast to justify Russia’s continued insistence that both Ukraine and the West capitulate to Russia’s original demands from 2021 and 2022.
- Russian forces continue to increase the range of their drones to strike deeper into Ukraine, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent requirements for traditional air defense systems.
- The Kremlin is moving forward with efforts to mobilize active reservists compulsorily, likely to eventually deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine as Russia continues to suffer a disproportionately high casualty rate compared to its territorial gains.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin officially enacted into law on December 29 the 2026 conscription decree which will transition Russia’s conscription cycle away from biannual spring and fall conscription cycles to a single year-round conscription cycle.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.