Preliminary unconfirmed reports suggested that Russian forces may have conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8, but Ukrainian officials have not yet confirmed these reports. The Ukrainian Air Force issued a missile alert in all of Ukraine around 23:30 local time due to the threat of a Russian ballistic missile launch from Kapustin Yar (where Russia reportedly stores Oreshnik missiles and the alleged launch site of the first Russian Oreshnik strike against Ukraine in November 2024) and noted explosions in Lviv Oblast.[1] The BBC’s Ukrainian service stated that unofficial monitoring channels reported launch activity at the Kapustin Yar missile launch site in Astrakhan Oblast.[2] Ukrainian outlets and X (formerly Twitter) accounts noted that Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channels suggested that Russian forces may have conducted an Oreshnik strike.[3] A Ukrainian Telegram source posted footage reportedly showing multiple strikes in quick succession, which may be showing Oreshnik’s multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) payload.[4] Russian milbloggers claimed that an Oreshnik struck the gas field and storage facility near Stryi, Lviv Oblast.[5] Lviv City Mayor Andriy Sadovyi stated that there was a series of powerful explosions in the city in the evening, and Lviv Oblast Military Administration Head Maksym Kozytskyi stated that Russian forces struck an unspecified critical infrastructure facility in the region.[6] Sadovyi later reported that it is currently unknown if Russian forces used an Oreshnik against Lviv Oblast.[7] ISW cannot independently verify if the strike against Lviv Oblast was an Oreshnik strike.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had warned on the afternoon of January 8 about a possible “new massive Russian strike” on the night of January 8 to 9.[8] The US Embassy in Kyiv City reported on January 8 that it received information about a potentially significant air strike “over the next several days.”[9] Russian forces have only conducted one other known strike with the Oreshnik, which struck Dnipro City on November 21, 2024, as part of a larger missile strike against the city’s critical infrastructure and industrial enterprises.[10] The Kremlin has leaned on the November 2024 Oreshnik strike and subsequent threats to use the Oreshnik against Ukraine as part of a reflexive control campaign aimed at discouraging Western support for Ukraine and has intensified efforts to threaten the West with Oreshniks since Fall 2025.[11]
The Kremlin again explicitly rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing with Ukraine as part of a peace agreement. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova responded on January 8 to the Coalition of the Willing’s recent efforts to finalize the details about a multinational force deployment to Ukraine in order to guarantee a future ceasefire, which Zakharova labeled as “militaristic declarations” from an “axis of war.”[12] Zakharova stated that Russia will consider Western military deployments to Ukraine as a “foreign intervention” that will pose a “direct threat” to Russia’s security and as “legitimate combat targets” for the Russian military. Zakharova reiterated Kremlin calls for any future peace agreement to address the war’s alleged “root causes” and to include stipulations on Ukrainian neutrality, “demilitarization” (reductions in the Ukrainian military such that Ukraine cannot defend itself), “denazification” (the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a pro-Russian puppet government), and protections for ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers in Ukraine — Russia’s original stated war aims from 2022. Zakharova also called for an agreement to recognize the “territorial realities” that resulted from Russia’s sham and illegal referendums in 2014 and 2022 — referring to Kremlin demands for recognition of illegally annexed Crimea and all of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts as part of the Russian Federation. Zakharova’s January 8 statements are the latest in a string of Kremlin statements rejecting the peace plan that Ukraine, the United States, and Europe are currently discussing, particularly provisions on security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.[13]
The owner of the Russian-flagged Bella-1 oil tanker that the US Coast Guard seized on January 7 is reportedly affiliated with Russian efforts to evade sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector. The United States had previously sanctioned the owner of the Bella-1 for cooperating with the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force (IGRC-QF), but the tanker re-registered as the Marinera under the ownership of Russian company Burevestmarine in late December 2025.[14] Russian businessman Ilya Bugai owns and directs Burevestmarine, which Bugai registered in July 2025.[15] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reported on January 8 that Bugai is also the CEO of Rusneftekhimtorg, which former Odesa City Councilmember Viktor Baransky (a pro-Russian politician whose citizenship Ukraine stripped in 2024) owns.[16] Baransky is linked to the Fides Ship Management LLC and Rustanker LLC, both of which the United States sanctioned in 2021 for violating US sanctions against Venezuelan oil.[17] Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported in December 2024 that some entities of Baransky’s group of companies, the Palmira Group, participated in sanctions evasion schemes to transport Venezuelan and Russian oil and Iranian goods.[18]
Russia appears to be attempting to distance itself from the Bella-1 oil tanker even as it seeks to protect other likely shadow fleet vessels. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) published on January 8 another response to the US seizure of the Bella-1 that rejected US assertions that the Bella-1 had been flying under a false flag and aimed to circumvent sanctions against Venezuela.[19] The Russian MFA condemned the seizure of the Bella-1 and claimed that US and Western sanctions against Venezuelan oil are illegitimate.[20] The Russian MFA claimed that Russia had granted the vessel “temporary permission” to fly a Russian flag as of late December 2025, notably refraining from describing the Bella-1 as a Russian vessel despite its new registration under a Russian company. The MFA briefly acknowledged that the Bella-1 had been en route to an unspecified Russian port at the time of the seizure. The New York Times reported on January 6 and 8, citing the official Russian vessel registry, that five oil tankers operating in Venezuelan waters in recent weeks — all under US sanctions for shipping either Russian or Iranian oil — have switched to Russian flags and declared home ports in Sochi or Taganrog, Russia, in recent days.[21]
]]The United Kingdom provided Ukraine with air defense systems amidst Russia’s escalating long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure. UK Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for the Armed Forces Al Carns reported on January 6 that the United Kingdom delivered 13 Raven air defense systems and two prototype Gravehawk air defense systems to Ukraine and that the first batch of the remaining 15 contracted Gravehawk systems will arrive to Ukraine at an unspecified date in the near future.[33] Russia’s long-range missile and drone strikes seek to exploit Ukraine’s insufficient quantity of air defense systems to protect both the front and rear, and British provisions will help create a denser Ukrainian air defense umbrella.
Key Takeaways
- Preliminary unconfirmed reports suggested that Russian forces may have conducted an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) strike against Lviv Oblast on the night of January 8, but Ukrainian officials have not yet confirmed these reports.
- The Kremlin again explicitly rejected the security guarantees for Ukraine that the United States and Europe are currently finalizing with Ukraine as part of a peace agreement.
- The owner of the Russian-flagged Bella-1 oil tanker that the US Coast Guard seized on January 7 is reportedly affiliated with Russian efforts to evade sanctions against the Venezuelan oil sector.
- Russia appears to be attempting to distance itself from the Bella-1 oil tanker even as it seeks to protect other likely shadow fleet vessels.
- The Russian military command reportedly continues to create new military units and formations but will likely struggle to staff them to their full doctrinal end strength.
- The United Kingdom provided Ukraine with air defense systems amidst Russia’s escalating long-range drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian civilian and critical infrastructure.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast.