The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues to spell out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on US President Donald Trump’s preferred timeline. The Russian MFA rejected on August 22 Western media accusations that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is undermining the peace process with his recent statements, including by rejecting Western security guarantees for Ukraine.[1] The Russian MFA explicitly stated that Lavrov’s statements represent the Kremlin’s position, which the MFA stated is “distinguished by consistency” and has not changed following the August 15 Alaska Summit. The Russian MFA reiterated Lavrov’s statements from August 20 and 21, which stated that any serious discussions about Western security guarantees for Ukraine that do not “take into account” Russia’s own “legitimate concerns” are a “road to nowhere.” The Russian MFA also reiterated Lavrov’s August 21 statement that Russia favors collective security guarantees that are “truly reliable” and cited the Russian demands presented to Ukraine during the 2022 Istanbul Ukraine-Russia negotiations as containing such guarantees. Those demands would have permanently prohibited Ukraine from joining NATO, imposed severe limitations on the Ukrainian military, and banned Ukraine from receiving Western military assistance without imposing any restrictions on the size or capability of Russian forces.[2] The Russian MFA stated that Lavrov’s August 20 and 21 statements are consistent with Putin’s August 15 demand that any peace agreement address the “root causes” of the war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has repeatedly defined as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian-speakers.[3] The Russian MFA emphasized that Lavrov’s “statements confirm the theses” about the war in Ukraine that Putin has “repeatedly voiced.” The Russian MFA stated that Putin sets Russian foreign policy and Lavrov, as the foreign minister, implements Russian foreign policy according to Putin’s directive, and that Lavrov is therefore not undermining Russian foreign policy objectives.[4]
The Russian MFA’s statement that Lavrov is not undermining the peace process because Lavrov is executing Putin’s foreign policy directives is an accurate assertion that Putin himself is the impediment to the peace process. ISW continues to assess that Putin remains uninterested in pursuing serious peace negotiations and maintains his long-standing war aims that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation.[5]
Putin continues efforts to obtain concessions from the United States in the US-Russian bilateral relationship without meaningfully engaging in the peace process in Ukraine. Putin stated on August 22 that Trump’s assuming the presidency in 2025 was a “light at the end of the tunnel” in US-Russian bilateral relations and that his meeting with Trump in Alaska was “very good and meaningful.” Putin stated that he hopes this meeting is part of “first steps” for the “full-scale restoration” of US-Russian bilateral relations and that the onus is now on the United States to restore relations because the United States is bound by certain international agreements.[6] Putin has long sought to restore bilateral US-Russian negotiations to divert attention from the war in Ukraine, obtain concessions from the United States, and continue his war in Ukraine without further sanctions or other penalties.[7] Putin continues to emphasize the prospects for improving bilateral US-Russia relations even as the Trump administration insists that Putin meet Zelensky to conclude a peace before restoring relations. Putin evidently still hopes that Trump will engage economically with Russia even if he offers no meaningful concessions to make peace. Putin’s concern is likely growing under the threat of further US sanctions on Russia and its allies that could hinder Russia’s war effort.
Trump expressed frustration with the current state of peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Trump stated on August 22 that he is not satisfied with “anything” related to the war in Ukraine and that “we’re going to find out” the Russian and Ukrainian positions about peace negotiations “over the next two weeks.”[8] Trump stated that he will decide whether or not to impose “massive sanctions, massive tariffs, both” or to “do nothing” during this two-week period, but that for now he will wait and ”see what happens next.” Trump added that he told Putin that he is “not happy” about the August 21 Russian strike on the “Flex” US electronics manufacturing company in Mukachevo, Zakarpattia Oblast, which caused a massive fire and injured at least 19 employees.
Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in tandem are impacting Russia’s fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues. Russian business outlet Kommersant reported on August 21 that Russia is on the brink of a gasoline crisis as wholesale gasoline prices have surged since early August 2025 as wholesale gasoline production is down nearly 10 percent since January 2025.[9] Kommersantreported that Russia produced an average of 123,600 tons of gasoline per day in January 2025 but now produces an average of 102,200 tons per day – a 17.3 percent decrease. The Moscow Times reported on August 18 that the national index for AI-92 gasoline (roughly equivalent to regular unleaded gasoline) has increased to 71,500 rubles (roughly $890) per ton and AI-95 gasoline (roughly equivalent to premium unleaded gasoline) rose to 80,430 rubles (roughly $1,000) per ton, 1.3 percent and 2.2 percent increases respectively, within a single day.[10] The Moscow Times reported that AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline prices have risen by nearly 38 percent and 49 percent respectively since the start of 2025. The Kremlin extended a temporary ban on August 14 on gasoline exports through September 2025 for producers and through October 2025 for non-producers in an effort to blunt the price surge.[11]
Kommersant noted that Russian experts are blaming unscheduled oil refinery shutdowns, likely alluding to the impacts of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes, lengthy oil refinery repairs, and insufficient gasoline reserves in Spring 2025.[12] A source in the oil industry told Kommersant that oil refinery repairs take months to complete, that refineries with imported equipment can require particularly lengthy renovation periods, and that authorities have postponed several oil refineries’ scheduled maintenance due to sanctions limiting the supply of necessary equipment to Russia. Another source in the fuel industry informed Kommersant that authorities expect to conduct maintenance on up to 10 large oil refineries in the Fall of 2025, which will exacerbate gasoline shortages. Kommersant noted that a number of regions in Russia and occupied Ukraine are struggling with fuel shortages. Crimean occupation head Sergey Aksyonov told Kommersant that occupied Crimea primarily has a shortage of AI-95 gasoline, due to reduced production rates and logistical disruptions, as most of the gasoline is transported via roadways that are vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes. Zaporizhia Oblast occupation head Yevgeny Balitsky noted that occupied Zaporizhia Oblast is experiencing a shortage of AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline due to the threat of Ukrainian strikes against fuel trains. The Kremlin relies on oil revenue to fund its war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s inability to effectively navigate critical energy sector issues challenges Russia’s ongoing narrative that Russia is capable of withstanding Western economic pressures and financing its war effort for the long-term.[13]
The Kremlin is likely escalating its hybrid campaign involving GPS and communications jamming against NATO states bordering Russia. Bloomberg reported on August 23 that European states along Russia’s western border and the Baltic Sea, including the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, and Sweden, have raised concerns to international transport organizations over sharp increases in GPS and signal jamming and spoofing in recent months as well as an increase in Russian electronic warfare (EW) installations in border areas.[14] Bloomberg obtained a letter that Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland sent to the International Telecommunications Union on June 23 about the worsening radio-navigation interference due to increased Russian jamming. Bloomberg reported that an Estonian regulator stated that 85 percent of flights in the country experience signal disruption and there has been a rapid increase in the “spoofing” of faulty coordinates. Bloomberg reported that Lithuania accused Russia of orchestrating a spike in GPS jamming in late July 2025, causing a 22-fold increase in incidents of GPS jamming in the country since about July 2024. Bloomberg reported that the Baltic states, Finland, Sweden, and Poland also expressed concern about Russian EW in a letter to the International Civil Aviation Organization in early July 2025, and the organization expressed “grave concerns” about flight safety because of EW jamming. A Lithuanian communications official told Bloomberg that the disruptions from Russian EW jamming are expanding further into these states and that interference is also affecting sea, shipping, and ground communication towers. Pro-Ukrainian investigative outlet Tochnyi reported on August 15 that satellite imagery indicates that Russia is constructing a Circularly Disposed Antenna Array (CDAA), a military-grade antenna array designed for radio intelligence or communication, just south of Chernyakhovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast and 25 kilometers from the Polish border.[15] Tochnyi assessed that a CDAA at this location may allow Russia to monitor NATO communications in Eastern Europe and the Baltic Sea, communicate with submarines operating in the Baltic Sea or northern Atlantic Ocean, and support passive intelligence gathering. ISW previously observed reports that Russian EW interference significantly impacted flights in the Baltics, Poland, and Finland, particularly in early 2024 including when Russia likely jammed the satellite signal of a Royal Air Force (RAF) jet transporting then-UK Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, his staff, and select journalists back to the United Kingdom from Poland in March 2024.[16] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory, and is likely using EW innovations developed in the war in Ukraine against NATO states at this time.[17]
A former Russian servicemember confirmed ISW’s assessment that echelons of the Russian military command on the battlefield are actively ordering subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs). Independent Belarusian outlet Vot Tak published an interview with a former servicemember of the Russian Somali Battalion (9th Motorized Rifle Brigade, 51st Combined Arms Army, formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps, Southern Military District) who described his experience executing five Ukrainian POWs in occupied Karlivka, Donetsk Oblast in May 2024.[18] The soldier reported that his assault platoon commander, callsign “Vedma” (“Witch”), issued an order over radio to execute the POWs, and the soldier described the process of removing the armor of the Ukrainian POWs, finding a concealed area to conduct the execution, and executing the POWs from behind. ISW has observed a sharp increase in credible reports and footage of Russian forces executing Ukrainian POWs throughout 2024 and 2025 and continues to assess that Russian military commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling subordinates to execute Ukrainian POWs in violation of international law.[19]
Key Takeaways:
- The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) continues to spell out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rejection of a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on US President Donald Trump’s preferred timeline.
- The Russian MFA’s statement that Lavrov is not undermining the peace process because Lavrov is executing Putin’s foreign policy directives is an accurate assertion that Putin himself is the impediment to the peace process.
- Putin continues efforts to obtain concessions from the United States in the US-Russian bilateral relationship without meaningfully engaging in the peace process in Ukraine.
- Trump expressed frustration with the current state of peace negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
- Ukrainian long-range strikes campaign targeting Russian oil refineries, Western sanctions, and struggling refinery modernization efforts in tandem are impacting Russia’s fuel reserves and could threaten oil revenues.
- The Kremlin is likely escalating its hybrid campaign involving GPS and communications jamming against NATO states bordering Russia.
- A former Russian servicemember confirmed ISW’s assessment that echelons of the Russian military command on the battlefield are actively ordering subordinates to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
- Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.