Institute for the Study of War: large Russian drone and missile strike targets energy infrastructure in Kyiv, other cities

Russian forces launched a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 9 to 10, primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from Lipetsk Oblast; 14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 12 Iskander-K cruise missiles from Rostov and Bryansk oblasts and occupied Crimea; four Kh-59/69 cruise missiles; and 465 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones – of which roughly 200 were Shahed-type drones – from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo and Shakhty, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 405 drones; one Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile; four Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles; nine Iskander-K cruise missiles; and one Kh-59/69 cruise missile, and that four missiles were “lost” or suppressed, likely by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 13 missiles and 60 drones struck 19 locations, and downed debris fell on seven locations.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian strikes injured over 20 civilians and killed a child in Zaporizhzhia City.[2] Zelensky stated that the Russian strikes caused power outages in Kyiv City and Oblast and Donetsk, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kharkiv, Sumy, Poltava, Odesa, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts, and that Russian forces also targeted Zaporizhia, Kirovohrad, and Kherson oblasts. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha noted that October 10 is also the third anniversary of the first major Russian strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure in 2022, underscoring Russia’s annual efforts to undermine Ukrainian morale by striking energy infrastructure during the fall and winter.[3] Poltava Oblast Military Administration Head Volodymyr Kohut reported that Russian strikes against energy infrastructure left 16,578 households in Poltava Oblast without electricity.[4] Kyiv City Military Administration Head Timur Tkachenko reported that the Russian strikes left 5,800 apartment buildings and homes without power and water in the city.[5] Russia has increasingly used recent strikes to target smaller regional Ukrainian energy facilities with more limited air defenses, likely in an effort to capitalize on Ukraine’s limited number of Patriot air defense systems.[6] ISW continues to assess that Russia is prioritizing strikes against civilian and energy infrastructure to continue its long-standing campaign to degrade Ukraine’s energy security ahead of winter 2025-2026 and demoralize the Ukrainian populace.[7] Russia’s ongoing and ever-intensifying long-range strike campaign against Ukraine is just one indicator of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s disinterest in peace.

Putin also continued to threaten the West as part of his reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and portraying Russia’s continued adherence to the New START treaty as a meaningful concession in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. Putin threatened on October 10 that Russia would strengthen its air defenses in response to potential US provisions of Tomahawk missiles and claimed that Russia is finalizing the development of a new, presumably nuclear, weapon that he will soon announce.[15]  A Kremlin insider source claimed that Russia may soon resume nuclear testing if Western countries take similar steps.[16] ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine, although the Kremlin has consistently failed to respond when the West violated Russia’s supposed “red lines” in the past.[17]

Putin also claimed that there is still enough time to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) after it expires on February 5, 2026 and that an agreement with the US on arms control would be “acceptable and useful” to Russia.[18] Putin’s statements are a continuation of Kremlin rhetoric that aims to portray Russia’s continued adherence to the New START treaty and potential arms control agreements as an indicator of Russia’s good faith to end the war in Ukraine and a meaningful concession to avoid engaging in genuine negotiations to end the war.[19] Russia’s ongoing strikes against Ukraine, repeated efforts to delay negotiations and then deflect blame for the delay onto Ukraine, and ongoing threats, including nuclear saber rattling, against the West indicate that Putin is disinterested in a peaceful and just ending to the war in Ukraine.

US First Lady Melania Trump announced that she assisted efforts to return seven Ukrainian children that Russia abducted. Trump announced on October 10 that her representatives worked with Russian President Vladimir Putin to return seven Ukrainian children that Russian authorities had abducted, and that Russia also agreed to return Ukrainian children who had turned 18.[20] Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev amplified Trump’s speech on X (formerly Twitter), implicitly admitting to Russia’s deportation of Ukrainian children.[21] Ukraine has been able to verify Russia’s deportation of 19,546 children to date, although the true figure is likely to be much higher because Russia frequently targets vulnerable children without anyone to speak for them.[22] Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab reported that the number of deported children is likely closer to 35,000 as of March 19, 2025.[23] Russian State Duma Deputy Grigory Karasin and Children’s Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova claimed in 2023 that Russia had “accepted” over 700,000 Ukrainian children since February 24, 2022.[24]

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces launched a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine on the night of October 9 to 10, primarily targeting energy infrastructure and civilian targets.
2. The Kremlin continues parallel efforts to curry favor with the United States while deflecting blame onto Ukraine and Europe for stalling negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine.
3. Putin also continued to threaten the West as part of his reflexive control campaign aimed at preventing the United States from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and portraying Russia’s continued adherence to the New START treaty as a meaningful concession in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
4. US First Lady Melania Trump announced that she assisted efforts to return seven Ukrainian children that Russia abducted.
5. Ukraine’s European partners continue to allocate aid to Ukraine and deepen cooperation with the Ukrainian defense industrial base (DIB).
6. Ukrainian forces advanced near Siversk and Novopavlivka. Russian forces advanced in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast; the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka and Dobropillya tactical areas; and near Borova, Lyman, and Velykomykhailivka.