Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). Geolocated footage published on October 31 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently marginally advanced in eastern Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk).[1] Additional geolocated footage published on October 30 shows Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Pokrovsk and in eastern Rih (immediately east of Pokrovsk) after what ISW assesses to be an infiltration mission.[2] ISW assesses that these infiltration missions did not change the control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area (FEBA). A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on October 29 that Russian forces are infiltrating Pokrovsk in groups of five to 10 people and that Pokrovsk is mainly a contested “gray zone.”[3] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the 2nd Combined Arms Army (CAA, Central Military District [CMD]) are advancing within Pokrovsk, including near the Pokrovsk railway station in central Pokrovsk, and that elements of the 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly known as the 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) are advancing in Myrnohrad.[4] Russian milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces are advancing further in Pokrovsk and into eastern Myrnohrad and near Rodynske.[5] Another Russian milblogger claimed that elements of the 41st CAA (CMD) advanced west of Pokrovsk toward Hryshyne and advanced to the M-30 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway.[6] The porous nature of the frontline and pervasiveness of drones in this area continues to complicate and obscure the tactical picture in Pokrovsk, and ISW will provide an updated assessment as the situation becomes clearer.
The Pentagon approved the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 31, but the final decision remains with US President Donald Trump. CNN, citing three US and European officials, reported on October 31 that the Pentagon determined that providing Tomahawks to Ukraine would not negatively impact US stockpiles.[7] The officials noted that the decision to actually send Ukraine the missiles rests with Trump. ISW continues to assess that providing US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would parallel Russia’s regular use of long-range cruise and ballistic missiles against Ukraine and reduce this important Russian advantage.[8] Russia regularly uses missiles comparable to the Tomahawk, such as Kh-series and Kalibr cruise, Kinzhal aeroballistic, and Iskander ballistic and cruise missiles that Russia uses in its nightly strikes against Ukraine.[9] Russia has used most of these missile types since 2022 and began using Iskander-K cruise missiles in 2023. The Tomahawk missiles’ long-range and larger payload would enable the Ukrainian military to inflict substantial damage on key Russian military assets located deep within Russian territory, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, and the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast, from which Russia sorties the strategic bombers that fire air-launched cruise missiles at Ukraine.
Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian air defense and energy infrastructure. The Ukrainian Navy reported, and geolocated footage indicates, that Ukrainian forces conducted a Neptune missile strike against the Oryol Thermal Power Plant in Oryol Oblast and the Novobryansk substation in Bryansk Oblast overnight on October 30 to 31.[14] The Ukrainian Navy reported that both facilities supply power to Russian military enterprises in Oryol Oblast. Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) reported on October 31 that USF elements, in cooperation with the Russian Chernaya Iskra insurgency group, disabled a Russian Buk-M3 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system and NEBO-U early warning radar system in Rostov Oblast on the night of September 27 to 28.[15]
Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles since August 2025, in apparent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha told Reuters on October 31 that Russian forces recently began using nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles against Ukraine, the first public acknowledgement that Russian forces have employed these missiles against Ukraine.[16] Sybiha noted that the missile’s range violates the INF Treaty, which bans ground-launched missiles with a range between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. Russian Oreshnik missiles also notably violate the INF Treaty.[17] A military source told Reuters that Russian forces launched a 9M729 missile against an unspecified target in Ukraine at a range of over 1,200 kilometers on October 5. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters that Russian forces launched Novator missiles against Ukraine twice in 2022 and 23 times since August 2025. Russia’s use of the missile comes against the backdrop of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcements of Russian nuclear weapons tests of the Burevestnik missile and Poseidon unmanned underwater vehicle.[18]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces marginally advanced during recent counterattacks north of Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to infiltrate into Pokrovsk and east of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk).
- The Pentagon approved the provision of Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 31, but the final decision remains with US President Donald Trump.
- Russia and Belarus continue to threaten Europe with the future deployment of Oreshnik missiles to Belarus.
- Ukraine continues to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes against Russian air defense and energy infrastructure.
- Russian forces have repeatedly struck Ukraine with nuclear-capable 9M729 Novator ground-launched cruise missiles since August 2025, in apparent violation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty.
- A German court convicted several citizens of conspiring to commit acts of sabotage in Germany on behalf of Russia, and Lithuanian authorities closed the Vilnius Airport due to more aerial incursions from Belarusian airspace.
- Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov recently appointed former First Deputy Trade and Industry Minister Vasily Osmakov as Deputy Minister of Defense.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.