The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation in response to US President Donald Trump’s October 17 proposal for peace in Ukraine. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev responded on October 18 on his English and Russian language social media accounts to Trump’s October 17 call for both Russia and Ukraine to each “claim victory” in Ukraine.[1] Medvedev claimed that this call is not applicable to Russia and that Russia needs a victory “with the conditions everyone knows.”[2] Medvedev is likely referring to the Kremlin’s consistent pre-war demands to install a pro-Russian puppet government in Ukraine, Ukrainian neutrality and NATO abandoning its open-door policy, and limiting the size of Ukraine’s military as such that Ukraine could not defend itself against future Russian aggression.[3]
Kremlin officials and mouthpieces broadly reacted to the October 17 meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky by cautiously reiterating Kremlin informational lines that aim to divide Ukraine from Western support and justify continuing its war in Ukraine.[4] Russian officials expressed cautious optimism about Trump’s reported decision against provisioning Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles at this time, but Medvedev hedged that US weapon deliveries will continue to Ukraine, however.[5] Russian Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR) Head and Duma Deputy Leonid Slutsky claimed on October 18 that Trump’s reported decision against providing Tomahawks to Ukraine was due to his October 16 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, in which Putin offered to meet with Trump in Hungary, claiming Trump’s reported decision as a victory for Putin.[6] Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO and key Kremlin negotiator Kirill Dmitriev reiterated his October 16 and 17 US-Russian bilateral economic proposals following the Trump-Zelensky meeting, continuing efforts to incentivize economic cooperation in exchange for Trump giving up the peace effort and allowing Putin to continue his war in Ukraine without US pressure.[7]
Ukraine’s October 2025 strikes against an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea, appear to have significantly degraded the terminal, and it is unclear when or if Russia will be able to repair it. Planet satellite imagery captured on October 17 and published on October 18 shows significant damage to multiple fuel tanks at the Feodosia oil terminal following Ukrainian strikes against the terminal on October 6, 7, and 13.[8] Ukraine-based open source intelligence (OSINT) organization Frontelligence Insight assessed that the October 2025 Ukrainian strikes destroyed or severely damaged at least 11 main oil storage tanks and at least six smaller day or additive tanks.[9] Frontelligence Insight assessed that 19 total main tanks and six smaller day or additive tanks at the Feodosia oil terminal are damaged as of October 17. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 15 that the Ukrainian strikes damaged at least 16 oil tanks.[10] Frontelligence Insight noted that Russia will likely struggle to repair the Feodosia oil terminal and that Ukraine could strike any repaired facilities.[11] Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) investigative journalist Mark Krutov published Planet satellite imagery from 2022 and October 2024 showing the damage that Ukrainian strikes have inflicted on oil infrastructure in occupied Feodosia since 2022, suggesting that Russia has not yet repaired facilities damaged in prior Ukrainian strikes.[12] Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure in occupied Feodosia diminish the terminal’s capacity to supply the Russian military with fuel and lubricant. Ukraine’s sustained strike campaign on Russian oil refineries is imposing worsening gasoline shortages on occupied Crimea.[13]
Russian state media reported that the majority of Russian drivers expect further increases in gasoline prices as Ukraine continues its long-range strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure. Russian state business outlet Gazeta dot ru reported on October 18 that a poll from online finance platform WEBBANKIR found that 74 percent of Russian drivers have “noticed” gasoline price increases since August 2025 and that 90 percent expect further increases.[14] The poll found that 56 percent of Russian drivers consider the price increases significant, and that 18.9 percent have encountered empty gas stations. The poll found that roughly 40 percent of Russian drivers have changed their driving habits due to the price increases, and that 38 percent have begun buying cheaper fuel. Gazeta dot ru noted that gasoline prices have risen 10 percent since January 2025 — the sharpest increase in 15 years.[15] Russian Union of Auto Services Head Yuriy Valko claimed on October 16 that Russian gas stations are increasingly selling low-quality gasoline, and Chinese automaker Geely Motors blamed a series of recent vehicle breakdowns on the usage of Russian gasoline, which Geely Motors claimed has more byproducts than the gasoline its engines are designed to use.[16] ISW continues to assess that Ukraine’s strike campaign against Russian energy infrastructure is impacting Russia’s domestic gasoline market, exacerbating shortages, and causing price spikes that will likely push inflation upwards and create further macroeconomic instability in Russia.[17] It is noteworthy that Russian state media is openly admitting that gasoline shortages are impacting the majority of drivers, as it suggests that the shortages are becoming increasingly acute.
Ukraine and Russia agreed to a localized ceasefire in western Zaporizhia Oblast to repair the remaining power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid Russian preparations to transfer the ZNPP to the Russian power grid. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced on October 18 that Ukrainian and Russian forces agreed to a local ceasefire to repair damaged powerlines to the ZNPP after a four-week outage, the longest the ZNPP has ever endured.[18] The details of the ceasefire, including its locality and duration, are unclear. The Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported on October 18 that Ukrainian engineers are restoring power lines to the ZNPP.[19] The ZNPP occupation administration claimed on October 18 that it began repairs on the Dniprovska power line, the last functioning power line for the ZNPP.[20] Russia has long been setting conditions to transfer the ZNPP from the Ukrainian power grid to the Russian power grid to bolster Russia’s claim over the ZNPP, and Russia likely used the month delay in restoring the Ukrainian power line to the ZNPP to undertake measures in support of connecting the ZNPP to the Russian power grid.[21] A Russian social media commentator claimed on October 18 that Russian authorities continue to delay preparations to transfer the ZNPP to the Russian power grid and that Russian shelling cuts off power to the ZNPP, which depends on the Dniprovska power line running through Ukrainian-controlled territory.[22] The commentator claimed that Russian authorities are currently working to connect the ZNPP to Russia’s newly constructed 201-kilometer power line that will complete the full integration of the occupied ZNPP to Russia’s power grid, but noted that this will reportedly take several weeks. ISW continues to assess that Russia’s eventual integration of the ZNPP into the Russian power grid will pose significant risks to nuclear security at the plant and allow Russia to seize Ukrainian energy generation assets for its own benefit.[23]
Key Takeaways
- The Kremlin reiterated its commitment to Russia’s war demands that amount to Ukraine’s full capitulation in response to US President Donald Trump’s October 17 proposal for peace in Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s October 2025 strikes against an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea, appear to have significantly degraded the terminal, and it is unclear when or if Russia will be able to repair it.
- Russian state media reported that the majority of Russian drivers expect further increases in gasoline prices as Ukraine continues its long-range strike campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure.
- Ukraine and Russia agreed to a localized ceasefire in western Zaporizhia Oblast to repair the remaining power line to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) amid Russian preparations to transfer the ZNPP to the Russian power grid.
- Russian forces advanced near Velykyi Burluk, Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.