US delegations met separately with a Ukrainian-European delegation and a Russian delegation in Miami on December 19 and 20, respectively. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner met with Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Ukrainian Chief of the General Staff Major General Andriy Hnatov on December 19, and Umerov stated that European representatives also joined the talks at the invitation of the United States.[1] Axios correspondent Barak Ravid reported on December 19 that two unspecified sources stated that national security advisors from Germany, France, and the UK joined the US-Ukrainian talks on December 19.[2] Ravid stated that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani joined the December 19 talks. Lead Russian negotiator and Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev arrived in Miami on December 20 to meet with Witkoff and Kushner.[3] Reuters reported that a Russian source stated that there would not be a meeting between Dmitriev and the Ukrainian delegation.[4]
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine must make compromises to end the war after Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to his full war aims on December 19. Rubio noted on December 19 that Ukrainian-Russian negotiations to end the war will require that both sides “give something” and that the United States is trying to figure out “what both sides are prepared to give.”[5] Putin used his December 19 Direct Line televised press conference to outline his demands for a future peace settlement — the same demands with which he launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022.[6] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in contrast, reiterated on December 20 his readiness to hold presidential elections in Ukraine as a step toward ending Russia’s war. Zelensky stated that he is ready to hold elections in Ukraine if conditions are in place for Ukrainian authorities to ensure “proper, decent, and democratic elections.”[7] Zelensky stated that the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is working to prepare and ensure the necessary infrastructure to hold elections abroad, as the number of Ukrainian citizens living abroad has grown.[8] Zelensky noted that the Ukrainian military must be able to participate in the elections and that there must be international observers and a ceasefire, even if a temporary one, to hold elections. Russia’s unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations and compromise from its demands for Ukraine’s full capitulation continues to demonstrate the need for robust security guarantees to ensure that any future agreement produces a sustainable peace and prevent renewed Russian aggression. The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected such security guarantees, however.[9]
Ukrainian forces struck Russian military and oil assets overnight on December 19 to 20. Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) reported that SBU forces struck two Russian Su-27 fighter jets at the Belbek Airbase near occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, overnight.[10] The SBU reported that one of the aircraft was carrying ammunition and taxiing for a combat mission at the time of the strike, which destroyed the aircraft. The SBU published geolocated footage showing Ukrainian drones hitting the Su-27s.[11] Ukrainian forces struck long-range radar systems, air defense systems, and a MiG-31 interceptor aircraft at the Belbek Airbase overnight on December 17 to 18.[12] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian RSP-6M2 radar system overnight on December 19 to 20, which Russian forces used to assist aircraft landing in poor visibility, near occupied Krasnosilske, Crimea.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that several Ukrainian drones also struck a Project 22460 Okhotnik-class patrol boat patrolling near an oil and gas field and a drilling rig in the Filanovsky oil field in the Caspian Sea and that Ukraine is conducting a battle damage assessment.[14] A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) project assessed that Ukrainian forces used FP-2 long range unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and likely struck the Rasul Gamzatov patrol boat.[15] Ukrainian forces have struck oil infrastructure at the Filanovsky oil field three times since December 10.[16]
Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15. The Turkish Ministry of National Defense reported on December 15 that Turkish and NATO forces shot down a drone approaching Turkish airspace from the Black Sea.[17] Turkish authorities did not specify the type or origin of the drone. The Turkish Interior Ministry reported on December 19 that Turkish authorities found a downed Russian Orlan-10 reconnaissance drone near Izmit in northwestern Turkey.[18] Turkish outlets reported on December 20 that a third drone crashed in Balıkesir Province in northwestern Turkey, possibly on an earlier date, and that there were no identifying markings on the drone.[19] A Russian milblogger claimed that the third drone was a Russian Merlin-VR reconnaissance drone.[20] Turkish authorities have not directly attributed the incidents to Russia as of this writing. ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its covert and overt attacks against Europe and that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[21]
Key Takeaways
- US delegations met separately with a Ukrainian-European delegation and a Russian delegation in Miami on December 19 and 20, respectively.
- US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that both Russia and Ukraine must make compromises to end the war after Russian President Vladimir Putin reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to his full war aims on December 19.
- Ukrainian forces struck Russian military and oil assets overnight on December 19 to 20.
- Three drones — at least two of which are reportedly Russian drone models — have entered Turkish airspace or crashed into Turkey since December 15.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.