Kremlin officials are reportedly demanding that Ukraine cede to Russia strategically vital unoccupied territory in Donetsk Oblast and freeze the frontline in other areas as part of a ceasefire agreement. The surrender of the rest of Donetsk Oblast as the prerequisite of a ceasefire with no commitment to a final peace settlement ending the war would force Ukraine to abandon its “fortress belt,” the main fortified defensive line in Donetsk Oblast since 2014, with no guarantee that fighting will not resume. Putin’s reported proposal reportedly demands that Ukraine concede this critical defensive position, which Russian forces currently have no means of rapidly enveloping or penetrating, apparently in exchange for nothing. The precise terms of Putin’s position remain unclear as of August 9; however, Trump Administration officials, particularly US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff, have offered four different presentations of Putin’s terms.
- The fortress belt is made up of four large cities and several towns and settlements that run north to south along the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway, with a total pre-war population of over 380,537 people. The belt is 50 kilometers long (roughly 31 miles, about the distance between Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland).
- Ukraine has spent the last 11 years pouring time, money, and effort into reinforcing the fortress belt and establishing significant defense industrial and defensive infrastructure in and around these cities.
- Slovyansk and Kramatorsk form the northern half of the fortress belt and serve as significant logistics hubs for Ukrainian forces defending in Donetsk Oblast. Druzhkivka, Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka serve as the southern half of the fortress belt.
- Ukrainian forces first began building up defensive positions in and around these cities after retaking them from pro-Russian proxy forces who attacked and seized Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostyantynivka in April 2014.
- Russia’s failure to seize Slovyansk in 2022 and ongoing struggles to envelop the fortress belt underscore the success of Ukraine’s long-term efforts to reinforce the fortress belt cities.
- Russian forces are currently still attempting to envelop the fortress belt from the southwest and are engaged in an effort to seize it that would likely take several years to complete.
Ceding Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast would place Russian forces on the borders of Donetsk Oblast, a position that is significantly less defensible than the current line.
- Allowing Russian forces to take up positions along the Donetsk Oblast border would require Ukrainian forces to urgently build up massive defensive fortifications along the Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblast border areas, whose terrain is poorly suited to act as a defensive line.
- Potential Ukrainian defensive lines in this area would run through open fields, and natural obstacles such as the Oskil and Siverskyi Donets rivers are too far east to serve as defensive positions for Ukrainian forces defending the Donetsk Oblast border.
- A potential ceasefire along the Donetsk Oblast border would also require large-scale investment in infrastructure compatible with a large-scale, long-term ceasefire monitoring mission.
- Russian forces also hold limited positions along the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border southwest of Pokrovsk, but ceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast would allow Russian forces to avoid completing their ongoing costly efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces would also avoid having to fight through Ukraine’s westernmost Dobropillya-Bilozerske-Novodonetske-Oleksandrivka defensive line, which also runs north to south, similar to the fortress belt. Conceding the remainder of Donetsk Oblast would thus also provide Russian forces more advantageous positions from which to attack into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.