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July 15, 2025

Institute for the Study of War: Russia dismisses Trump’s ‘ultimatum’ to end war in Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

Kremlin officials dismissed US President Donald Trump’s demand that Russia agree to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine within 50 days while promoting claims that Russia can withstand economic pressure and remains committed to achieving its war aims. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told Kremlin newswire TASS on July 15 that Russia views any attempt to make demands of Russia, “especially ultimatums,” as “unacceptable.”[1] Ryabkov noted that Russia is ready to negotiate and prefers a diplomatic solution to its war in Ukraine, but will continue to pursue its war aims militarily if the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) do not take Russia’s demands seriously. Ryabkov stated that Russia’s position is “unshakable.” Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov echoed Ryabkov’s statements, claiming that Russia is ready to participate in a third round of Ukraine-Russia bilateral negotiations but blamed Ukraine for the lack of progress towards the next round of talks.[2] Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev posted on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account, claiming that “Russia didn’t care” about Trump’s “ultimatum.”[3] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expressed confidence that Russia will be able to cope with US tariffs, as Russia is already “coping” with prior sanctions.[4] A Just Russia Party Leader and Duma Deputy, Sergei Mironov, claimed that potential tariffs will not affect the course or goals of Russia’s war in Ukraine.[5] Russian President Vladimir Putin has yet to officially respond to Trump and is likely attempting to identify which narratives could convince Trump not to follow through with secondary tariffs in early September 2025.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine’s capitulation. Reuters, citing three unspecified sources close to the Kremlin, reported on July 15 that Putin intends to continue the war in Ukraine until the West concedes to his demands, is unfazed by US President Donald Trump’s threats of secondary tariffs, and may expand his territorial demands as Russian forces continue their advances on the battlefield.[6] Reuters’ sources noted that Putin is resolved to continue his war, as he believes Russia can endure any further economic hardship that the West imposes. One source told Reuters that Putin believes that none of Russia’s diplomatic engagements thus far have included detailed discussions on a peace plan for Ukraine, so Putin “will continue until he gets what he wants.” The sources told Reuters that Putin’s demands for a potential settlement are the same as his demands from 2021 and at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022 – demands that the Kremlin has repeatedly cited throughout over three years of war.[7] ISW continues to assess that Putin holds a theory of victory that posits that Russia can achieve its war aims by continuing to make creeping gains on the battlefield indefinitely and outlasting Western support for Ukraine and Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.[8] Western economic pressure, combined with sustained Western military support to Ukraine, is necessary to enable Ukrainian forces to inflict battlefield losses on Russia to force Putin to reassess his calculation and engage substantively in peace negotiations to end the war.[9]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new appointments within the Ukrainian government. On July 14, Zelensky announced that he nominated current Economic Minister Yulia Svyrydenko as prime minister and noted that Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal’s robust experience would be well suited for the role of defense minister.[10] Shmyhal later resigned from his position as prime minister on July 15.[11] Zelensky has yet to formalize these reassignments with an official decree as of this writing.

Key Takeaways:

  • Kremlin officials dismissed US President Donald Trump’s demand that Russia agree to a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine within 50 days while promoting claims that Russia can withstand economic pressure and remains committed to achieving its war aims.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s theory of victory continues to drive his unwillingness to compromise on his pre-war demand for Ukraine’s capitulation.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced new appointments within the Ukrainian government.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, and Toretsk.
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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

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Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

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