Institute for the Study of War: Russia launches massive missile and drone assault on Ukraine infrastructure

Russian forces launched 704 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 5 to 6, heavily targeting railway and energy infrastructure across the country. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 653 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones, of which over 300 were Shaheds, from the directions of Kursk, Oryol, and Bryansk cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched three Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Ryazan and Tambov oblasts; 34 Kh-101/Iskander-K/Kalibr cruise missiles from Rostov Oblast and the Black Sea area; and 14 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Rostov oblasts, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 585 drones, 29 cruise missiles, and one ballistic missile; that an unspecified number of missiles and 60 drones hit 29 locations; and that debris fell on three locations.Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian rail, energy, residential, and port infrastructure in Kyiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Zaporizhia, Odesa, Lviv, Volyn, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[2] Ukraine’s Energy Ministry reported that Russian forces struck electricity generation, distribution, and transmission facilities throughout Ukraine.[3] The Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported that the Russian strikes caused power outages in Odesa, Chernihiv, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Mykolaiv oblasts on the morning of December 6, leading to energy restrictions and rolling blackouts across the country. Ukrainian State Inspectorate for Energy Supervision Deputy Head Anatoliy Zamulko reported that Russian forces struck facilities that redistribute electricity between Ukrainian regions, forcing Ukrainian nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce their electricity generation capacity.[4] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russian drone strikes destroyed the Fastiv Rail Station in Kyiv Oblast.[5] Ukrainian railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia reported that the Russian strikes against the station disrupted suburban routes, forcing Ukrainian authorities to limit railway operations.[6] Ukrzaliznytsia Chairperson Oleksandr Pertsovsky noted that the Russian strikes did not hit cargo trains but rather Fastiv Station and electric commuter trains that connect Kyiv City with its suburbs.[7] Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian forces also struck food and medicine warehouses in Kyiv, Volyn, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[8]

The US and Ukrainian negotiating delegations agreed that any progress toward peace talks to end the war in Ukraine is dependent on Russia’s readiness to demonstrate a good faith commitment to long term peace.[9] The US Department of State and Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov issued a joint statement about the December 4-5 US-Ukrainian talks.[10] The statement noted that the delegations worked to find a “credible path” toward a durable and just peace in Ukraine. Umerov reaffirmed Ukraine’s priority to secure a peace settlement that protects Ukraine’s independence and sovereignty, ensures the safety of Ukrainians, and provides a stable foundation for Ukraine’s prosperous democratic future. The delegations agreed on the framework of security arrangements; discussed the deterrence capabilities necessary for a lasting peace; and reviewed the agenda to support Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, joint US-Ukrainian economic initiatives, and long term recovery projects. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated in an interview with Sky News published on December 6 that there can only be a just peace if there is a ceasefire along the current front lines, after which Russia and Ukraine can conduct negotiations.[11]

Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions within Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad while Russian forces are complicating Ukrainian logistics in the area. Geolocated footage published on December 6 shows three Ukrainian servicemembers raising a flag on Yakuba Kolasa Alley in northern Pokrovsk, indicating that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions within the town.[12] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi also stated in an interview with Sky News published on December 6 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in northern Pokrovsk.[13] Additional geolocated footage published on December 6 shows Russian forces striking a Ukrainian drone launcher in Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk), an area in which Russian sources previously claimed that Russian forces maintained a presence.[14] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger acknowledged that Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions within Myrnohrad.[15] The chief of staff of a Ukrainian drone battalion told The Telegraph in an article published on December 6 that Ukrainian and Russian forces in Pokrovsk are operating in “pockets” close to each other as Ukrainian and Russian positions are interspersed among neighboring buildings.[16] The chief of staff noted that there is no discernible front line in the area, in line with indicators that Russian forces have infiltrated between Ukrainian positions into Myrnohrad and northern Pokrovsk. Russian forces continue to hinder Ukrainian logistics in this direction, however. A Ukrainian drone unit servicemember stated to The Telegraph that unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) are an insufficient replacement for logistics via manned vehicles, as the UGVs carry less cargo than traditional vehicles and often only survive a few missions before Russian forces destroy them. Ukrainian sources have recently noted that Ukrainian forces maintain limited logistics in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket, but Russian forces very likely can disrupt narrow Ukrainian exfiltration routes and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with artillery and drones.[17] ISW continues to assess that available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not completed the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket but are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical and operational level logistics in the area, even as Ukrainian forces maintain limited positions within both towns.[18]

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces launched 704 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 5 to 6, heavily targeting railway and energy infrastructure across the country.
2. The US and Ukrainian negotiating delegations agreed that any progress toward peace talks to end the war in Ukraine is dependent on Russia’s readiness to demonstrate a good faith commitment to long term peace.
3. Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions within Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad while Russian forces are complicating Ukrainian logistics in the area.
4. A February 2025 Russian drone strike on the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) rendered the protective structure of the NPP unable to fulfill its primary safety functions.
5. The Kremlin appears to be increasingly leaning on India to alleviate domestic labor shortages and is setting conditions for India to support drone production for Russia’s war effort.
6. India’s increased partnerships with Russia come against the backdrop of Russia’s growing reliance on North Korea and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to support the war in Ukraine.
7. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Novopavlivka and Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.