Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks across the theater in the last week, which is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive. Syrskyi stated on March 23 that Russian forces intensified offensive actions across the theater between March 17 to 20, attacking 619 times over the four-day period.[1] ISW assessed on March 21 that Russian forces likely began their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt after a significant increase in mechanized and motorized assaults in various sectors of the front since March 17, a period of intensified strikes, and the movement of heavy equipment and troops on the frontline.[2] Syrskyi stated that the Russian military command is trying to bring up new forces and is counting on deteriorating spring weather conditions, like fog, to reduce the effectiveness of Ukrainian drone and artillery strikes for future assaults.[3] Syrskyi stated that the Russian military command deployed tens of thousands of servicemembers into highly attritional infantry-led assaults that resulted in more than 6,090 killed and wounded during the four-day period, for a daily average of about 1,520 casualties. Syrskyi stated that Russian forces lost a total of 8,710 troops during the last week (between roughly March 17 and 23). Such a high casualty rate is unsustainable given Russia’s current recruitment rates and would likely degrade Russia’s ability to wage such large assaults in the mid- to long-term. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt in 2026 but will likely make some tactical gains at a significant cost.[4] Russian officials are already setting expectations in the domestic information space for slow advances and high casualties, however, with one Russian State Duma deputy stating on March 23 that all wars have casualties but that Russian forces will try to minimize casualties by advancing at a “leisurely pace” toward Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[5]
The ongoing war in the Middle East is likely exacerbating Russia’s ability to resolve its liquidity problems related to its unsustainable wartime spending. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on March 23 that Russian state agencies and regulatory data show that the Russian Central Bank’s gold reserves fell to 74.3 million troy ounces in February 2026, the lowest since March 2022.[10] Kremlin newswire TASS noted that gold reserves had also fallen by 500,000 troy ounces between January 1 and March 1.[11] The Russian Central Bank resorted to selling its gold reserves for the first time in November 2025 due to unsustainably high spending coupled with Russia’s steady depletion of its sovereign wealth fund’s liquid reserves in order to fund the war.[12] Meduza noted that the war in the Middle East is causing global gold prices to fall, which, if sustained, could undercut Russia’s attempts to use gold reserves as an alternate funding method.[13]
Russia is turning to private military companies (PMCs) to defend Russian critical infrastructure against Ukrainian drone strikes. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law on March 23 authorizing some PMCs and affiliated security organizations to obtain combat-grade small arms and ammunition from Rosgvardia to defend critical infrastructure against Ukrainian drone strikes.[14] The law applies to PMCs belonging to Russian fuel and energy companies, strategic enterprises, state corporations, and organizations that protect critical facilities. The law states that Rosgvardia will issue weapons to prevent various types of drone strikes during the period of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. The PMC must submit a request to Rosgvardia, which will seek approval from the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) directorate overseeing that region.[15] Vasily Piskarev, head of the State Duma Committee on Security and Anti-Corruption, stated that PMCs already provide security for over 80 percent of Russia’s fuel and energy infrastructure but previously relied on weapons that are insufficient for repelling unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), unmanned surface vehicles (USVs), unmanned underwater vehicles (UUVs), and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs). The March 23 law is likely in part meant to address years-long complaints from the Russian milblogger community about insufficient protections for Russian critical infrastructure against Ukrainian drone strikes.[16] The Kremlin similarly passed a law in Fall 2025 requiring active reservists to participate in special training to protect critical and other infrastructure in Russia, which ISW assesses is a part of Kremlin preparation for limited, involuntary reserve callups in the future.[17]
US and Ukrainian delegations held another round of bilateral meetings in Miami, Florida, on March 22. US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff stated on March 22 that the “constructive” US-Ukrainian talks focused on humanitarian efforts and the establishment of a durable and dependable security framework for Ukraine.[18] Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov noted that the meetings focused on security guarantees and the exchange and return of Ukrainian citizens from Russia.[19]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks across the theater in the last week, which is — consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces have launched their Spring-Summer 2026 offensive.
- The Kremlin continues to attempt to disguise and dismiss the economic impacts of its costly war in Ukraine while trying to take advantage of the current high energy prices.
- The ongoing war in the Middle East is likely exacerbating Russia’s ability to resolve its liquidity problems related to its unsustainable wartime spending.
- Russia is better equipping turning to private military companies (PMCs) to defend Russian critical infrastructure against Ukrainian drone strikes.
- US and Ukrainian delegations held another round of bilateral meetings in Miami, Florida, on March 22.
- Russia continues to take steps to expand its permanent military basing in Belarus, particularly to increase Russia’s long-range drone strikes against Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Slovyansk direction.
- Ukrainian forces struck military assets and oil infrastructure in Russia. Russian forces launched 251 drones against Ukraine.