Institute for the Study of War: Russia prepares artillery and drones for spring offensive

Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparation of the battlefield for the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces shelled Bilenke (roughly 14 kilometers from the frontline and immediately northeast of Kramatorsk, the northern tip of the Fortress Belt — a series of fortified cities that have constituted the backbone of Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk Oblast since 2014) on February 26 and 27 — the first time that Russian forces have hit Kramatorsk or its suburbs with tube artillery.[1] The artillery strikes against Bilenke likely mark the beginning of Russian artillery preparation ahead of the expected Spring-Summer 2026 Russian offensive. Russian forces will likely begin the ground assault phase of this offensive in the near-term following the artillery preparation phase. Russian forces have also been conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against the southern tip of the Fortress Belt. BAI is the use of air power to strike targets in the frontline’s operational rear (roughly 20 to 100 kilometers from the line of contact) to impact tactical battlefield operations, and Russia has largely been waging its BAI campaign with drone strikes.[2] Geolocated footage published on February 26 shows Russian drone strikes against a civilian cyclist on the H-20 Kostyantynivka-Slovyansk highway northwest of Kostyantynivka and against Ukrainian forces in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, both at the south of the Fortress Belt.[3] The H-20 highway is the main ground line of communication (GLOC) connecting the cities of the Fortress Belt. Russian forces have been using monthslong BAI campaigns as part of a broader campaign design aimed at degrading Ukrainian defensive capabilities and frontline positions ahead of Russian ground offensives.[4] A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Slovyansk direction reported on February 26 that the Russian military command is deploying reinforcements to the Slovyansk direction, another indicator that Russia plans to prioritize offensive operations against the Fortress Belt in the near-term.[5] A Russian ground offensive to seize the Fortress Belt will likely be a multi-year operational effort that would cost the Russian military command significant time, manpower, and resources.[6] Russian forces have so far been unable or unwilling to concentrate the resources required for a decisive offensive operation, particularly against the Fortress Belt.[7]

Russia is reportedly expanding recruitment efforts in higher educational institutions to staff the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF). The BBC Russian Service reported on February 27 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has expanded its recruitment efforts to at least 95 educational institutions across Russia and pressured students to sign contracts with the MoD during face-to-face meetings at 90 of these institutions.[8] The BBC Russian Service noted that the 95 educational institutions do not include institutions where the Russian MoD is conducting “indirect recruitment,” such as opening unmanned systems centers at Russian universities. The BBC Russian Service noted that Russian universities are publicizing successful recruitment efforts, likely to entice more students to sign contracts with the MoD. Germany-based Russian opposition outlet Echo reported February 26 that the Russian MoD is recruiting students from at least 57 universities and 13 colleges and technical colleges in 24 federal subjects, including occupied Crimea and has expanded its recruitment campaign to include all students, not just those underperforming academically. Echo noted that the Russian MoD is promising to students that they will only serve in USF units (a preferable military occupation that faces lower risk to life and limb than infantry) but that at least some of the contracts contain language that would allow the MoD to send the recruits to any Russian military unit, not just a USF unit.[9] Echo reported that the Russian MoD is utilizing a ”carrot and stick” tactic by offering benefits including large salaries, a guaranteed single year of service, education grants, and student debt forgiveness, and also by coercing and threatening students into signing contracts. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on February 26 that the Nikolai Lunin Novosibirsk College of Transport Technologies organized a three-day screening of propaganda films about Russians who allegedly “betrayed” Russia because the students had refused to volunteer for military service.[10] The Russian MoD began recruitment efforts targeting underperforming Russian students in December 2025 and began expanding this effort in January 2026.[11] The Russian MoD may staff the conventional Russian military with student recruits. Russian forces are increasingly struggling to hit recruitment targets, with Russia’s casualty rate outpacing the recruitment rate in January 2026, for the first time since the start of the full-scale invasion.[12]

Russian forces likely used white phosphorus in Kostyantynivka and may have indiscriminately affected civilian areas in violation of international law. Geolocated footage published on February 27 shows a Russian strike with what appears to be white phosphorus munitions against southwestern Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast.[28] A Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka direction reported that Russian forces used white phosphorus in the strike and immediately after struck the area with a FAB-1500 guided glide bomb.[29] While ISW cannot assess whether the impacted area contained civilians, civilians still remain in Kostyantynivka. The Ukrainian brigade reported that roughly 2,000 civilians remain in Kostyantynivka. Protocol III of the Convention on Conventional Weapons prohibits the use of incendiary weapons, such as white phosphorus, against civilian targets or in areas with concentrations of civilians.[30] Russian forces notably have used white phosphorous and incendiary munitions allegedly in violation of international law in Ukraine before.[31]

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces have likely begun artillery and drone preparation of the battlefield for the anticipated Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive against Ukraine’s Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast.
2. Russia is reportedly expanding recruitment efforts in higher educational institutions to staff the Russian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF).
3. The Kremlin is continuing to crack down on pro-war information space figures that it cannot fully co-opt or subordinate to state control as part of wider efforts to consolidate the information space under the Kremlin’s control.
4. Russian drone approached the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Swedish port of Malmo on February 25.
5. Russian forces likely used white phosphorus in Kostyantynivka and may have indiscriminately affected civilian areas in violation of international law.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole.