Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump’s new deadline for Russia to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow’s interest in continuing the war. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on his English-language X (formerly Twitter) account that Trump cannot dictate the timing of peace negotiations and that negotiations will end when Russia has achieved all of its war objectives — likely referring to Russia’s original war aims, including regime change in Ukraine, changes to NATO’s open-door policy, and the reduction of Ukraine’s military such that it cannot defend itself.[1] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly claimed that Russia will continue its war against Ukraine in order to protect Russia’s interests, despite Trump’s July 28 announcement of the new 10- or 12-day deadline.[2] Peskov claimed that there is currently a slowdown in the process to normalize Russian-American relations, that the Kremlin remains interested in normalization, and that progress will require “impulses” from both sides.[3] Peskov claimed that the current state of Russian-American relations is hindering the process of negotiating an extension of the New START Treaty.[4] The Kremlin previously dangled the prospect of incentives that were unrelated to the war in Ukraine, such as bilateral arms control talks and economic projects, in order to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine.[5] Peskov’s statements about the deterioration of Russian-American relations and New START are likely part of efforts to compel Trump to renounce his deadline for the sake of normalizing bilateral relations and pursuing increased cooperation. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is uninterested in negotiations to end the war and is instead trying to protract the war in Ukraine in order to make additional gains on the battlefield.[6]
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against civilian targets near the frontline and in the Ukrainian rear on July 28 and 29 that resulted in high casualties. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Rostov Oblast and occupied Crimea and 37 Shahed-type and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[7] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses downed 32 drones over northern and eastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that five drones and two missiles struck in three locations and that drone debris fell in two locations. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration Head Serhiy Lysak reported on July 29 that Russian forces conducted a missile strike against Kamyanske (west of Dnipro City), striking the city hospital, including a maternity ward.[8] Lysak reported that the strike killed four people, including a pregnant woman, and injured eight. Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration Head Ivan Fedorov and the Ukrainian State Penitentiary Service reported that Russian forces conducted an airstrike on July 28 against the Bilenkivksa Correctional Facility in Bilenke, Zaporizhia Oblast, with four guided glide bombs.[9] The Ukrainian State Criminal Executive Service reported that the strike killed 16 prisoners and injured nearly 100 people.[10] The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (UN OHCHR) reported that the July 28 strike against the correctional facility may amount to a serious violation of international humanitarian law.[11] The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported on July 29 that Russian forces conducted a multiple-launch rocket system (MLRS) strike against Novoplatonivka, Kharkiv Oblast (just north of Borova), and struck a group of civilians awaiting humanitarian assistance.[12] The State Emergency Service reported that the strike killed five civilians and injured three.
Ukrainian forces appear to be intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian military industrial facilities and transport networks. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko reported on July 29 that Ukrainian forces struck a railway station and a Russian resource base in Salsk, Rostov Oblast.[13] Kovalenko stated that Russian forces use Salsk as a logistics hub to transfer resources, fuel, ammunition, and other cargo to frontline units in Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts and occupied Crimea. A Ukrainian reserve officer reported on July 29 that Ukrainian forces highly likely struck a train carrying fuel at the Salsk railway station.[14] Russian sources posted footage reportedly of fires at the Salsk railway station, and Russian officials claimed that Russian forces repelled drone strikes against Rostov Oblast overnight.[15]
Ukraine-based open-source intelligence organization Frontelligence Insight reported that July 29 was the third day in which Ukrainian drones struck Russian railway and industrial hubs and that Ukrainian drones have inflicted a “tangible” logistical setback on a railway line linking the military industrial hubs in Volgograd, Volgograd Oblast, and Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast.[16] Frontelligence Insight reported that Ukrainian forces have recently targeted electrical substations, fuel tanks, and station buildings in Orlovsky, Rostov Oblast, and Zhutovo, Volgograd Oblast, both of which are located along a railway that connects Russian defense industrial facilities with occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.[17] Ukrainian forces have previously targeted Russian defense industrial, weapons storage, and oil production facilities that support and fund Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and Ukrainian forces currently appear to be targeting the transportation lines between these hubs.[18]
Key Takeaways:
- Kremlin officials decisively rejected US President Donald Trump’s new deadline for Russia to negotiate an end to its war against Ukraine and reiterated Moscow’s interest in continuing the war.
- Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against civilian targets near the frontline and in the Ukrainian rear on July 28 and 29 that resulted in high casualties.
- Ukrainian forces appear to be intensifying a long-range strike campaign against Russian military industrial facilities and transport networks.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlivka, and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.