The Kremlin is escalating its rhetoric, threatening NATO states in parallel with the kinetic escalation of Russia’s recent drone incursion into Poland. Russian Security Council Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev claimed on September 15 on his Russian- and English-language channels that a “no-fly zone” over Ukraine that would allow NATO aircraft to shoot down Russian drones would “mean only one thing – a war between NATO and Russia.”[1] Medvedev also claimed that Russia will “go after” EU states that provide Ukraine with loans backed by Russian assets in “all possible international and national courts.” Medvedev threatened that “in some cases, [Russia will] bypass court procedure” – a possible threat to use kinetic action against EU states. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov explicitly claimed on September 15 that “NATO is at war with Russia” and that “NATO is de facto involved in” the war in Ukraine by providing support to Ukraine.[2] Peskov, like Medvedev, condemned European efforts to seize frozen Russian assets, saying that “such steps will not go unnoticed.”[3]
Peskov’s and Medvedev’s references to a possible Russia-NATO war aim to prevent NATO and European states from taking action to defend themselves and Ukraine against aggressive and threatening Russian behavior, such as the September 9 to 10 drone incursion into Poland. Peskov’s and Medvedev’s threats come against the background of Russian threats against Serbia and NATO member Norway. Russian Ambassador to Norway Nikolai Korchunov accused Norwegian officials of encroaching on allegedly ”Russian” settlements on sovereign Norwegian land, and the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed that European officials are preparing a ”Serbian Maidan,” referencing the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine.[4] Kremlin officials have routinely invoked narratives mirroring those that Russia has used to try to justify its invasions of Ukraine – including Russian territorial claims in Ukraine and false claims portraying the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution as a “coup” – in order to threaten other neighboring states, including NATO members.[5] Russia has employed similarly escalatory rhetoric in recent weeks against Finland—another NATO member.[6]
Russian and Belarusian forces continued the Zapad-2025 joint military exercises on September 15 and appear to be implementing some tactical lessons from Russia’s experience in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian and Belarusian forces conducted training exercises at the Borisovsky and 227th Combined Arms training grounds in Minsk Oblast and in Kaliningrad Oblast and the Barents Sea.[7] Russian forces also conducted exercises in Russia’s Far East.[8] The Russian MoD confirmed that Russian elements of the Leningrad Military District (LMD) practiced deploying nuclear-capable Iskander-M ballistic missile systems in Kaliningrad Oblast.[9] The Russian MoD claimed that the nuclear-capable Arkhangelsk submarine practiced launching a missile strike against a naval target and that elements of the Russian Northern Fleet practiced striking a mock enemy nuclear submarine in the Barents Sea.[10] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bombers patrolled ”the neutral waters of the Barents Sea” for four hours.[11] The Belarusian MoD reported that representatives from 23 countries, including the United States, Hungary, and Turkey, observed Zapad-2025 exercises in Belarus.[12]
The Russian MoD claimed that Russian and Belarusian forces practiced maneuvering with light motor vehicles, such as all-terrain vehicles (ATVs), as rapid movement on such vehicles reduces the time required to cross open areas, decreases the risk of first-person view (FPV) drone strikes, and allows troops to quickly attack from the flanks. The Russian MoD appears to be implementing lessons it has learned from the war in Ukraine, such as Russian tactics to move near the frontline on ATVs to evade Ukrainian drones and is disseminating such knowledge with Belarus. Such joint exercises also give Russia the opportunity to iterate and institutionalize the lessons it is learning on the battlefield in Ukraine outside of the chaos of the actual combat zone. Russia and Belarus are likely to use Zapad-2025 to improve their joint interoperability under the conditions of modern warfare.
Russia is using the Zapad-2025 exercises to practice potential future kinetic provocations against neighboring NATO states. Russian forces practiced defending against and using nuclear capabilities in the waters of the Barents Sea, which borders NATO member Norway.[13] Russian forces also practiced using nuclear capable missiles in Kaliningrad Oblast, which immediately borders NATO states Lithuania and Poland.[14] Russian officials have previously used Kaliningrad Oblast as a launchpad for GPS jamming and spoofing across Europe, and Russia reportedly constructed a Circularly Disposed Antenna Array (CDAA), a military-grade antenna array designed for radio intelligence or communication, just south of Chernyakhovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast, and 25 kilometers from the Polish border.[15] The EU Commissioner for Defense and Space Andrius Kubilius stated on September 15 that 40 percent of all flights in Europe face some form of jamming – likely from Russia.[16] Zapad-2025 is providing both Russia and Belarus a platform with which to refine kinetic escalation techniques, which in themselves serve as a subtle form of pressure against NATO.