Russia killed at least 21 civilians, including children, and damaged civilian infrastructure and European diplomatic facilities during the second largest strike of the war thus far and the largest strike since the August 15 Alaska Summit on the night of August 27 to 28. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that overnight on August 27 to 28 Russian forces launched a total of 629 drones and missiles at Ukraine, including 598 Shahed-type and decoy drones from the directions of Kursk, Bryansk, and Oryol cities, Millerovo, Rostov Oblast, Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast, Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai, and occupied Hvardivske, Crimea; two Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from over Lipetsk and Voronezh oblasts; nine Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Voronezh oblasts; and 20 Kh-101 cruise missiles from over Saratov Oblast.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defense forces shot down and suppressed 563 Shahed-type and decoy drones; one Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missile; seven Iskander-M/MN-23 ballistic missiles; and 18 Kh-101 cruise missiles. Drones and missiles impacted in 13 locations throughout Ukraine, and drone and missile debris fell on 26 locations. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russia used jet-powered Geran-3 (the Russian analogue of the Iranian Shahed-238 drone) in strikes on Kyiv City.[2
The August 27 to 28 strikes primarily targeted Kyiv City. Kyiv City Military Administration Head Tymur Tkachenko reported that Russian drones and missiles struck over 20 locations throughout Kyiv City and caused significant damage to residential buildings throughout the city.[3] Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko reported that a direct missile strike on a residential building in Darnytskyi Raion, Kyiv City, killed 12 people, including four children.[4] The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported that as of 20:40 local time on August 28, the death-toll in Kyiv City had risen to 21.[5] Security camera footage shows two Russian missiles consecutively striking Zhylianska Street in Kyiv City, damaging residential buildings, the European Union (EU) diplomatic missile building, and the British Council building.[6] The British Council and the EU delegation to Ukraine both confirmed severe damage to their respective buildings in Kyiv City, and the European Commission and the United Kingdom have both summoned the Russian envoys to Brussels and London.[7] Russian forces hit a US-civilian owned enterprise in Zakarpattia Oblast during its last massive strike series on August 20 to 21, which ISW assessed at the time was likely part of a wider Russian effort to discourage Ukraine’s allies from investing in Ukraine. The August 27 to 28 strikes on British and European diplomatic facilities was likely intended to generate a similar impact and discourage Europe’s continued support for Ukraine at a time when the United States and Europe are working closely to determine appropriate security guarantees for Ukraine in a future peace settlement.[8] US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg condemned Russia’s strikes on civilian and diplomatic infrastructure in Kyiv City as a threat to the peace that US President Donald Trump is currently pursuing.[9] Russia also targeted transportation infrastructure in Vinnytsia Oblast on the night of August 27–28. Ukrainian railway operator Ukrzaliznytsia reported that Russia struck train cars of the Intercity+ high-speed train fleet and a railway junction in Kozyatyn, Vinnystia Oblast, causing a massive power outage that impacted railways throughout Ukraine.[10] A Russian milblogger claimed that Kozyatyn is “the most important railway junction in Ukraine” and called for Russian forces to strike more Ukrainian transportation nodes.[11]
The August 27 to 28 strike series, which was the largest since the August 15 US-Russia summit in Alaska, supports ISW’s assessment that Russia used the lead-up to the Alaska summit to stockpile drones and missiles, launching fewer and smaller strikes to present itself to the US administration as a good-faith negotiator.[12] Russia is likely to escalate strikes against Ukraine in the coming weeks to take advantage of the missile and drone stockpile it accrued in the weeks leading up to Alaska, and appears to be resuming its wider campaign to target Ukraine’s infrastructure before the fall and winter to undermine Ukraine’s will to continue fighting against Russian aggression.[13] Russian strike packages will likely continue to increasingly inflict civilian causalities as Russia scales up the size and type of munitions in its strike packages.
Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign targeting Russia’s oil refineries is contributing to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 28 that elements of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SOF) conducted a drone strike against Kuibyshev Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast.[14] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Kuibyshev Oil Refinery produces gasoline, diesel fuel, fuel oils, and solvents, and has a processing volume of seven million tons per year. The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces, the Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Unmanned Systems Forces (USF), struck the Afipsky Oil Refinery in Neftekachka, Krasnodar Krai, just south of Krasnodar City. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Afipsky Oil Refinery has a production capacity of 6.25 million tons of oil per year and plays a vital role in providing fuel to the Russian military. Ukrainian Center for Combatting Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated on August 28 that the Kuibyshev and Afipsky oil refineries are key to Russia’s war machine.[15]
The Russian government announced on August 27 that it will extend its ban on gasoline exports, which was set to expire on August 31, to September 30 for gasoline producers and to October 31 for non-producers in an attempt to stabilize the domestic fuel market.[16] Russia struggled to keep up with domestic demand for gasoline even before recent Ukrainian strikes and has placed intermittent bans on the export of gasoline since 2022, but recent Ukrainian strikes have exacerbated gasoline shortages and caused a spike in gasoline prices across Russia and occupied Ukraine.[17] These gasoline shortages and price spikes will likely result in increased consumer costs, increased business expenses across industries, and drive inflation expectations, thereby pushing overall inflation upwards by increasing both direct and indirect costs throughout the economy and creating further macroeconomic instability in Russia.[18]
The Russian information space responded to the strikes against the Afipsky and Kuibyshev refineries and reiterated concerns about the poor performance of Russia’s air defense systems near critical and military infrastructure. A Russian milblogger complained that recent Ukrainian strikes against Russian gasoline refineries are collapsing Russia’s oil and gas sector and that Russian citizens are already noticing the effects of Ukrainian strikes in rising gasoline prices as production struggles to keep pace with domestic demand.[19] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger accused “authorized agencies” of failing to protect targets and down Ukrainian drones.[20] Another milblogger lamented that the Russian government has not arrested anyone for failing to protect Russian deep-rear infrastructure from “slow-moving” Ukrainian strike drones.[21] Another milblogger suggested that Russia delegate part of the authority for air defense to those who can use non-standard counter-drone measures and that Russia equip mobile air defense groups and construct air defense at vulnerable facilities.[22] The milblogger recommended that air defense groups arm themselves with small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery, man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS), interceptor drones, and radars to detect and down targets at low altitudes. The milblogger accused the Russian government of lacking initiative and being incompetent and demanded that Russia increase the use of interceptor drones, small radars, and helicopters to prevent such strikes. The milblogger suggested that Russia take inspiration from BARS (Russian combat army reserve) drone units operating in Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts, and called for an increase in the recruitment of volunteers to air defense groups. The Russian information space has blamed Russian leadership for failing to defend Russian military infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes throughout Russia’s full-scale invasion.[23] Ukrainian long-range drone strikes continue to place pressure on this existing point of neuralgia in the Russian information space.
Russian intelligence services are likely tracking US and European military supply lines in Europe by conducting reconnaissance operations over NATO territory. The New York Times (NYT) reported on August 28 that Russia or unspecified Russian proxies are flying surveillance drones over routes that the United States and its allies use to ferry military supplies through eastern Germany, collecting intelligence that Russia could use for its sabotage campaign or to assist Russian troops in Ukraine.[24] NYT reported that US and EU military officials are increasingly concerned about drone flights in Germany and cited a German publication’s report that some of the drones tracking Western military supply routes are Iranian-manufactured drones and are likely originating from ships in the Baltic Sea. NYT reported that US officials confirmed the drone operations, and the officials stated that the origins of the flight are still unknown but that they believe Russian intelligence services are responsible for the flights. NYT reported that Western officials stated that Russian sabotage acts decreased significantly in 2025 after reaching a peak in 2024. The Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS) told NYT that it tracked a significant drop-off in sabotage attacks in the first six months of 2025 with only four identified incidents of Russian sabotage or attempted sabotage in Europe. CSIS stated that the drone flights over supply routes are likely Russian espionage attempts to learn what firms are manufacturing weapons for Ukraine and to understand how the West is shipping weapons into Poland and subsequently Ukraine. CSIS noted that the drone flights are likely related to battlefield intelligence attempts meant to give Russia a better idea of what weapons Ukraine has and where Ukraine will deploy them. ISW previously observed reports that Russian intelligence services appeared to be decreasing the frequency sabotage operations but noted that Russia may be reassessing and possibly innovating their sabotage operations in Europe.[25] Potential drone reconnaissance efforts may constitute a new iteration of Russia’s hybrid operations on the European continent. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on August 28 that the Kremlin is “unaware” of NYT’s reports of Russian reconnaissance flying over US arms supply routes in Germany.[26]
Key Takeaways:
- Russia killed at least 21 civilians, including children, and damaged civilian infrastructure and European diplomatic facilities during the second largest strike of the war thus far and the largest strike since the August 15 Alaska Summit on the night of August 27 to 28.
- Ukraine’s ongoing strike campaign targeting Russia’s oil refineries is contributing to gasoline shortages across Russia that will likely raise inflation and cause further macroeconomic instability in Russia.
- The Russian information space responded to the Ukrainian strikes against the Afipsky and Kuibyshev refineries and reiterated concerns about the poor performance of Russia’s air defense systems near critical and military infrastructure.
- Russian intelligence services are likely tracking US and European military supply lines in Europe by conducting reconnaissance operations over NATO territory.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Lyman and Pokrovsk, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.