Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) baselessly claimed on September 30 that Ukraine is preparing to conduct a false flag attack against critical Polish infrastructure in order to implicate Russia and Belarus.[1] The SVR claimed that Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) and Polish intelligence will deploy a sabotage and reconnaissance group comprised of Russian and Belarusian nationals from the pro-Ukrainian Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR) and Kastuś Kalinoŭski Regiment to Poland. The SVR claimed that the troops will pose as Russian and Belarusian Spetsnaz personnel at a press conference after Polish security forces capture them and that the pro-Ukrainian troops will blame Russia and Belarus for the incident. The SVR claimed that Ukraine may simultaneously conduct an “attack” on critical infrastructure in Poland in order to “heighten public outcry.” The SVR claimed that Ukraine is trying to take advantage of the recent drone incursions into NATO airspace to inflame anti-Russian sentiment in Poland, accelerate escalation in the war, and incite European countries to intervene in the war on behalf of Ukraine. The Kremlin may have ordered the SVR to release this statement in order to evade responsibility for a possible future Russian and Belarusian sabotage operation against Poland.
The Kremlin often uses the SVR to spread unfounded allegations of imminent attacks as part of disinformation campaigns designed to weaken support for Ukraine and sow doubt about the nature of Russia’s own provocations against NATO member states.[2] The Kremlin is likely setting information conditions to blame Ukraine for future attacks that Russia itself may conduct against Poland or other NATO states. Russia similarly accused Ukraine on September 26 of conducting the recent drone incursions into Polish and Romanian airspace to instigate a NATO-Russia war, despite the fact that Polish and Romanian officials attributed the incursions to Russia.[3]
Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections. The Kremlin-linked Patriotic bloc claimed on September 30 that Moldovan authorities committed “egregious” election violations and that the bloc will “seek justice through street protests, in the courts, and, if necessary, in the Constitutional Court.”[4] Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians stated on September 29 that they would appeal the election results on the pretext of electoral violations.[5] High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to buttress Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians’ claims of electoral fraud and violations. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed on September 30 that the elections were “fraudulent” and that Moldovan authorities “blatantly manipulated” the votes.[6] Russian Federation Council Chairperson Valentina Matvienko claimed on September 29 that Moldovan President Maia Sandu brought the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which won a parliamentary majority in the elections, to victory “on bayonets” and that the elections were illegitimate.[7] Matvienko claimed that Moldovan citizens will not recognize the election. Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed on September 29 that the election was “unprecedentedly dirty” and that Moldovan authorities used extra-legal mechanisms, blackmail, and threats.[8]
Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB). European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced on September 30 that the EU will commit two billion euros (roughly $2.3 billion) to Ukraine for drone production.[12] Von der Leyen stated that this funding will allow Ukraine to scale up and use its full drone production capacity and also allow the EU to benefit from such technology. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on September 30 that the US is currently discussing the fifth and sixth weapons packages to Ukraine through NATO’s Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-made weapons for Ukraine.[13] Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s goal is to receive one billion dollars’ worth of weapons per month through PURL. NATO launched the PURL initiative in July 2025, and NATO countries, including the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Germany, and Canada, have already contributed more than two billion dollars to Ukraine through the program.[14]
European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics. Norwegian public broadcaster NRK and Norwegian outlet VG reported on September 29 that employees at the Sleipner oil drilling, production, and accommodation platform reported sightings of an unspecified drone near the platform in the North Sea off the western coast of Norway.[15] Norwegian Police official Roger Litlatun stated that Norwegian authorities are investigating the incident. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on September 30 that a group of Ukrainian specialists traveled to Denmark to train Danish troops in counter-drone tactics as part of the “Wings of Defense” joint exercise following similar drone incidents around Europe in recent weeks.[16]
Key Takeaways
- Russia and Belarus may conduct special forces sabotage operations against critical infrastructure in Poland and launch additional drone incursions and blame Ukraine.
- Kremlin-linked Moldovan politicians may call for protests in the coming days and weeks before Moldovan authorities validate the results of the September 28 parliamentary elections.
- Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine, including to support Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
- European officials continue to report unidentified drones operating near European military and economic facilities as Ukraine launched efforts to train its European allies in counter-drone tactics.
- Ukrainian forces advanced near Borova and Lyman. Russian forces advanced near Borova, Lyman, Siversk, and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical effort area.