Institute for the Study of War: Russian envoy to U.S. acknowledges Ukraine concessions but doesn’t offer any

The Kremlin is attempting to leverage the visit of Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev to the United States to spread Kremlin narratives in the US information space. Dmitriev gave interviews to CNN, Fox News, and US journalist Lara Logan on October 24 and 25 during his visit to the United States.[1] Dmitriev’s visit comes against the backdrop of recent US sanctions against Russian oil, the reported US authorization of Ukrainian Storm Shadow missile strikes into Russia, and the ongoing debate about the provision of US Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.[2] The Kremlin’s deployment of Dmitriev to conduct a press tour within the United States indicates that Russia is concerned about the impact of these US policies. Kremlin officials have in recent weeks attempted to downplay the effects of Western sanctions on the Russian economy and the battlefield effects of Ukrainian long-range strikes — narratives that Dmitriev repeated in his interviews on October 24 and 25.[3]

Dmitriev effectively acknowledged that Ukraine has made compromises in its negotiating position while reaffirming that Russia’s maximalist demands from 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged.Dmitriev acknowledged that Ukraine has altered its negotiating position and offered compromises by agreeing to a ceasefire along the current line.[4] Dmitriev said that Russia wants a “final solution” to the war to prevent its resumption — paralleling language that Kremlin officials have used to talk about Russia’s demand that any peace settlement address the alleged “root causes” of the war. Dmitriev also said that the United States needs to take Russia’s “national interest” into account when discussing peace in Ukraine; that NATO expansion poses an “existential threat to Russian security;” and that a settlement must take account of Russia’s need to protect Russian-speakers living in eastern Ukraine.[5] Dmitriev’s statements paraphrase the Kremlin’s so-called “root causes” of the war, which Russian officials have repeatedly defined as NATO’s eastward expansion and Ukraine’s alleged discrimination against Russian speakers.[6] The Kremlin uses this “root causes” narrative to demand the replacement of the current Ukrainian government with a Russian puppet government, Ukraine’s commitment to neutrality, and the revocation of NATO’s Open Door Policy.[7] Dmitriev’s and other Kremlin officials’ statements are references to long-standing Russian demands of NATO and Ukraine dating back to December 2021 and February 2022.[8]

Russian forces are making gains near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (directly east of Pokrovsk) that are significant but likely do not portend the imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area. Geolocated footage published on October 24 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Kozatske and Promin (both east of Pokrovsk) and advanced in eastern and southeastern Myrnohrad.[24] Ukrainian military sources operating near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad told Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda in an article published on October 24 that small Russian groups are infiltrating Myrnohrad from the south and that Russian forces seized Krasnyi Lyman (north of Myrnohrad).[25] A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have not consolidated positions within Myrnohrad and that the large number of Ukrainian drones is complicating Russian attempts to concentrate infantry near Myrnohrad.[26] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced southeast of Myrnohrad.[27] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces, including elements of the 9th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st Combined Arms Army [CAA], formerly 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps [DNR AC], Southern Military District [SMD]) seized Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk).[28] A Russian milblogger claimed that most of Rodynske is a contested “gray zone.”[29]

Russian aircraft may have violated Japanese airspace on October 24. Reuters reported on October 24 that Japan scrambled jets on October 24 to monitor Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers that flew along the edge of Japanese airspace along its western coast over the Sea of Japan.[53] The Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Russia flew two Tu-95 bombers escorted by two Su-35 fighter jets toward Japan’s Sado Island before turning northwards.[54] Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi stated on October 24 that Russia conducts daily military operations around Japan.[55] Japanese Prime Minister Sana Takaichi had pledged to accelerate Japan’s defense buildup just hours before the incident. The Russian MoD acknowledged on October 24 that unspecified “foreign countries” escorted its jets during a “routine” flight patrol over alleged neutral waters.[56]

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin is attempting to leverage the visit of Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev to the United States to spread Kremlin narratives in the US information space.
2. Dmitriev effectively acknowledged that Ukraine has made compromises in its negotiating position while reaffirming that Russia’s maximalist demands from 2021 and 2022 remain unchanged.
3. Dmitriev attempted to appeal to what he perceives to be Trump administration interests in order to distract from Dmitriev’s statements, which demonstrate Russia’s continued unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations to end the war.
4. Russian State Duma deputies continue to publicly state that Russia has not changed its maximalist demands — contradicting Dmitriev’s attempts to obfuscate his reiteration of unchanged Russia’s demands in his interviews with US media outlets.
5. Dmitriev heavily promoted US-Russian economic cooperation while subtly alluding to Russia’s status as a nuclear power.
6. The British and French-led Coalition of the Willing met on October 24 in the UK to discuss further support for Ukraine and to put pressure on Russia.
7. Russian forces are making gains near Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (directly east of Pokrovsk) that are significant but likely do not portend the imminent collapse of Ukrainian defenses in the area.
8. Russian forces are employing infiltration tactics in other areas of the front line for informational effects.
9. Russian forces continue attempts to leverage poor weather conditions to conduct larger mechanized assaults but continue to suffer high vehicle losses disproportionate to their gains.
10. Russian aircraft may have violated Japanese airspace on October 24.
11. Ukraine’s European allies continue to provide military aid to Ukraine.
12. Ukrainian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka. Russian forces advanced near Lyman, Siversk, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.