Institute for the Study of War: Russian forces attempt to encircle Ukraine forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad

Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. Russian forces’ recent attempts to infiltrate Ukrainian lines north of Pokrovsk indicate that Russian forces are prioritizing efforts to complete the encirclement, aiming to physically sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) north of Pokrovsk that supply forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk). This assessment modifies ISW’s previous observation that Russian forces were apparently focusing on seizing the town of Pokrovsk rather than on completing the encirclement.[1] Geolocated footage published on November 16 indicates that Russian forces recently conducted a roughly fireteam-sized infiltration mission north of Pokrovsk.[2] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces conducted the infiltration mission northward from Pokrovsk itself.[3] ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces killed or wounded the Russian forces involved. It is unclear, therefore, if Russian forces retain positions in this area. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on November 16 that Russian forces have reverted to conducting infiltrations into Pokrovsk in small infantry groups of two to three servicemembers instead of mechanized assaults, likely in reaction to the failure of such assaults.[4] A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the neighboring Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area told CNN on November 16 that the size of Russian infiltration groups has recently dropped from five to seven servicemembers to a maximum of three servicemembers.[5] A Ukrainian drone operator in the Pokrovsk direction told CNN that Russian forces’ infiltration tactics are predicated on the assumption that lone survivors of three-member infiltration groups can gain footholds, emphasizing the costly nature of such tactics. The failure of mechanized assaults to rapidly bring large numbers of Russian forces into the town and the costly nature of infiltration-based troop accumulation may constrain Russian forces’ ability to reinforce troops within Pokrovsk, delaying Russian forces’ seizure of the town.

Foggy conditions impede both sides’ operations, and both sides have developed approaches to mitigate their effects. A Russian milblogger acknowledged that foggy weather conditions disadvantage Russian as well as Ukrainian forces.[6] The milblogger noted that Ukrainian forces are able to exit Pokrovsk under the cover of fog and that foggy conditions are impeding Russian drone operations – likely facilitating continued Ukrainian logistics to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. A Ukrainian mechanized brigade operating in the neighboring Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area reported that Ukrainian forces employed unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to detect a Russian mechanized assault toward Rusyn Yar (south of Druzhkivka) that exploited foggy conditions.[7] The brigade reported that the UGVs then transmitted coordinates for first-person view (FPV) drone strikes that repelled the mechanized assault, indicating that Ukrainian forces are developing countermeasures to Russian forces’ exploitation of foggy conditions to launch assaults.[8] Foggy conditions are seasonal and will lift at some point, and it is unclear which side will benefit more from clearer weather.

The logistical situation for Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad remains difficult. The Ukrainian combat medic operating in the Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad area told CNN that Russian drone fire control of Ukrainian GLOCs leading to Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad prevents Ukrainian vehicles from moving closer than 10 to 15 kilometers from Pokrovsk, hindering casualty evacuation efforts.[9] The medic noted that Russian forces focused fire on Red Cross-marked UGVs that Ukrainian forces use for casualty evacuation in violation of international law.

The situation in the Hulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain intensified offensive operations. Russian forces are attempting to isolate Hulyaipole from the northeast, likely to support Russian efforts to seize the town from the east. Russian forces continued to advance toward Hulyaipole and the T-0401 Pokrovske-Hulyaipole highway, which is one of Ukraine’s main GLOCs supplying Hulyaipole. Geolocated footage published on November 15 and 16 indicates that Russian forces recently seized Rivnopillya (northeast of Hulyaipole) and advanced east of Zatyshshya (east of Hulyaipole) along the O-080618 Hulyaipole-Malynivka highway.[10] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) credited elements of the Russian 114th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division, 5th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Eastern Military District [EMD]) with seizing Rivnopillya.[11] Recent Russian advances bring Russian forces within a roughly eight-kilometer range northeast of Hulyaipole and within about four kilometers east of Hulyaipole. Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn acknowledged on November 15 that recent Russian advances threaten to cut off Hulyaipole from GLOCs, including the T-0401 highway.[12] Voloshyn noted that Russian forces are attempting to infiltrate northwest of Hulyaipole toward Varvarivka, which runs directly along the T-0401 highway. A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on November 15 that Russian infiltration operations in the Hulyaipole direction can now penetrate into Ukrainian defenses up to five kilometers past the frontline.[13] Elements of the Russian 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade (35th CAA, EMD) appear to be operating near Zelenyi Hai (east of Hulyaipole), confirming that the Russian military command redeployed elements of the 38th Motorized Rifle Brigade from positions south of Hulyaipole to reinforce efforts east of Hulyaipole.[14]

Ukrainian forces report that they are successfully pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk.These reports are generally consistent with ISW’s assessments. Ukraine’s Joint Forces Task Force reported on November 16 that Ukrainian forces control Kupyansk and that Ukrainian forces have cut off Russian forces in northern Kupyansk from logistics.[15] Ukraine’s Joint Forces Task Force noted that Russian forces are attempting to claim successful advances through fabricated flag raisings that Russian soldiers on the ground conduct with flags received in drone drops and supply packages. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on November 16 that Ukrainian forces counterattacked near Osynovo (south of Kupyansk) and Zapadne (north of Kupyansk).[16] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces counterattacked from western Kupyansk and that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are infiltrating the town.[17] Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov claimed on August 30 that Russian forces seized roughly 50 percent of Kupyansk, and on October 26 that Russian forces encircled 18 Ukrainian battalions in Kupyansk.[18] ISW assessed that both claims were exaggerations of Russian gains in Kupyansk. The Joint Forces Task Force report suggests that Ukrainian forces are in the process of successfully rolling back a Russian effort to seize a settlement at this scale for the first time in recent years.

Key Takeaways

1. Russian forces are attempting to complete their encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
2. The situation in the Hulyaipole direction remains very serious as Russian forces continue to advance and maintain intensified offensive operations.
3. Ukrainian forces report that they are successfully pushing back Russian efforts to seize Kupyansk. These reports are generally consistent with ISW’s assessments.
4. The Kremlin used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate Russia’s objective of absorbing all of Ukraine into Russia – possibly under the control of Medvedchuk himself. Medvedchuk’s statements are consistent with ISW’s assessments that Russia aims to absorb all of Ukraine and with US President Donald Trump’s statements that Putin “wants all of it.”
5. Russian forces continue to encourage war crimes against Ukrainian servicemembers and civilians on the battlefield.
6. Russian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole and in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area.