Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups reportedly recently advanced into southern Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to pursue their operational objective of enveloping the town. Geolocated footage published on July 21 reportedly shows Russian forces engaging Ukrainian forces driving along the E50 Pokrovsk-Pavlohrad highway in southern Pokrovsk.[1] A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence stated on July 21 that Russian sabotage groups of unspecified size advanced into Pokrovsk through Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk) “a couple days ago” and that Ukrainian forces are still searching for and destroying these Russian groups.[2] Ukrainian outlet Ukrainska Pravda reported on July 22 that Ukrainian military personnel operating in Pokrovsk confirmed that Russian sabotage elements entered the town on July 17 and that Ukrainian forces are conducting clearing operations.[3] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on July 18 that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group trying to penetrate Pokrovsk.[4] Geolocated evidence indicates that Russian forces are advancing close to Pokrovsk from the southwest. Geolocated footage published on July 21 indicates that Russian forces also recently marginally advanced east of Zvirove (southwest of Pokrovsk) after recently intensifying assaults south of Pokrovsk.[5] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced further northeast of Zvirove.[6] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Zvirove is a contested “gray zone.”[7]
Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet on July 23 in Istanbul for the third round of bilateral negotiations, but Kremlin officials are already dismissing and undermining the upcoming talks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on July 21 that Russian and Ukrainian representatives will meet in Istanbul for the next round of peace negotiations on July 23.[11] Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov will again lead the Ukrainian delegation, which will also include representatives from Ukrainian intelligence, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the Office of the President.[12] Zelensky noted that the Ukrainian delegation will focus on returning prisoners of war (POW) and deported Ukrainian children and announced that Russian and Ukrainian representatives have already begun discussing additional POW exchanges.[13] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated that “there is no reason to count on any breakthroughs” in the upcoming talks and that emphasized that Russia intends to ensure its interests and fulfill the tasks that the Kremlin has set from the start of the war – likely referring to Russia’s original war aims, such as regime change in Ukraine, changes to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s (NATO) open-door policy, and the reduction of Ukraine’s military such that it cannot defend itself.[14] Peskov stated that the Ukrainian and Russian delegations will need to discuss the draft memoranda that they exchanged during the second round of talks on June 2. Russia’s delay in exchanging its memorandum until the June 2 meeting and Peskov’s July 22 statements continue to indicate that Russia is deliberately trying to delay the negotiation process in order to protract the war and make additional gains on the battlefield.[15]
Russia’s reported long-term rearmament plans further indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on July 22 that Russia plans to spend $1.1 trillion on rearmament by 2036 (or roughly $110 billion per year over the next ten years).[16] Budanov stated that Russia is further mobilizing its society and economy in preparation for a future large-scale war. Budanov noted that Russia’s restoration of the Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD/LMD) and ongoing efforts to form new divisions based on existing units and formations are indicative of Russia’s long-term plans. ISW has long assessed that Russia’s restoration of the MMD and LMD and ongoing efforts to restructure and expand the Russian Armed Forces are in preparation for a future large-scale conventional war against NATO.[17] Russian President Vladimir Putin recently claimed that Russia’s 2025 military budget is 13.5 trillion rubles (roughly $172 billion) and that Russia plans to steadily decrease defense spending beginning in 2026.[18] It is unclear exactly how much Russia spends on military and defense industrial procurement, however, given ongoing Kremlin efforts to obscure its national budget from domestic and foreign audiences. It remains unclear exactly how Russia will spend and allocate this reported rearmament fund, and the Kremlin may view Russia’s rearmament as a separate budget line from Russia’s yearly military budget for Ukraine.Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups reportedly recently advanced into southern Pokrovsk as Russian forces continue to pursue their operational objective of enveloping the town.
- Ukrainian and Russian delegations will meet on July 23 in Istanbul for the third round of bilateral negotiations, but Kremlin officials are already dismissing and undermining the upcoming talks.
- Russia’s reported long-term rearmament plans further indicate that the Kremlin is preparing for a potential future conflict with NATO.
- Russian authorities recently detained Bryansk Oblast Vice Governor Nikolai Simonenko and former Belgorod Oblast Vice Governor Rustem Zainullin, likely as part of the Kremlin’s continued efforts to scapegoat local officials for larger Russian border security failures following Ukraine’s August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion.
- Russian authorities targeted a Telegram channel that revealed Russia’s role in the late December 2024 downing of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane as part of a wider campaign to censor Telegram channels that are critical of the Kremlin.
- Russian forces recently executed a civilian in the Lyman direction.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy and Zaporizhia oblasts and near Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.