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May 14, 2024

Institute for the Study of War: Russian offensive slows in northern Kharkiv

Institute for the Study of War

The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Russian offensive activity in this area is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the creation of a “buffer zone” in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv Oblast. Several Ukrainian military officials reported on May 14 that they believe the situation in Kharkiv Oblast is slowly stabilizing — Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on May 14 that the situation in Kharkiv Oblast began stabilizing on the night of May 13 into May 14 as additional Ukrainian units deployed to the area and began defending against Russian advances. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nazar Voloshyn noted that Ukrainian forces have begun to “clear” Vovchansk by targeting visible Russian assault groups in the settlement. Several Russian and Ukrainian sources also reported that Russian forces are using new tactics in this direction — using smaller assault groups of no more than five people to penetrate Ukrainian positions before merging with other small assault groups to unite into a larger strike group. Drone footage purportedly from Vovchansk shows Russian foot mobile infantry operating within the settlement in small squad-sized assault groups, consistent with Ukrainian reports.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s candidate for Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined his and Putin’s intended priorities for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during a speech to the Russian Federation Council on May 14. Belousov stated that Putin has set two tasks for a Belousov-led Russian MoD – ensuring the full integration of the Russian military’s economy into the general Russian economy and making the Russian MoD as open to innovation as possible. Belousov stated that the Russian MoD’s “most pressing issue” is equipping and supplying the Russian military with modern equipment, ammunition, missiles, communications equipment, drones, and electronic warfare (EW) systems. Belousov stated that his other top priorities are the implementation of the 2025 state defense order, the Russian MoD’s annual request for new weapons and equipment from the Russian defense industry, and recruitment efforts, but noted that there is no need to discuss “emergency measures” such as a partial or general mobilization of Russian citizens. Belousov noted that the Russian MoD must optimize its spending and gain greater control over the Russian defense industry. Belousov’s identified priorities are largely consistent with ISW’s assessment that Belousov’s appointment indicates that Putin is taking significant steps towards mobilizing the Russian economy and defense industry to support a protracted war effort in Ukraine and possibly prepare for a future confrontation with NATO.

Russian authorities detained Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Russian MoD Main Personnel Directorate Head Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov on May 13 on charges of accepting large-scale bribes. The Russian Investigative Committee and Russian media reported on May 14 that the Russian 235th Garrison Military Court detained Kuznetsov on suspicion of accepting a large bribe in the period 2021-2023 while serving as the head of the Russian General Staff’s 8th Directorate, which is in charge of the protection of state secrets. The Russian Investigative Committee reported that authorities raided Kuznetsov’s home and discovered over 100 million rubles (about $1 million) worth of cash, including foreign currency, and luxury items. Moscow’s Basmanny Raion Court also detained Russian businessman Lev Martirosyan as part of Kuznetsov’s case. Russian outlet Kommersant reported that Martirosyan bribed Kuznetsov with a total of 30.5 million rubles ($333,935) to help Martirosyan’s hotel companies win government contracts. Kommersant reported that the same Investigative Committee department is investigating Kuznetsov’s and detained Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov’s cases and that the Investigative Committee is forming a special team to investigate similar cases involving high-ranking military personnel. Russian authorities detained Ivanov on April 24 on charges of accepting bribes. Ongoing speculation about further changes within the Russian military and political leadership prompted Russian sources to speculate about the possible return of disgraced Wagner-affiliated Army General Sergei Surovikin to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s favor, but Russian sources concluded that insider reports that Surovikin is in Moscow are inaccurate.

Key Takeaways:

  • The pace of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast appears to have slowed over the past 24 hours, and the pattern of Russian offensive activity in this area is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are prioritizing the creation of a “buffer zone” in the international border area over a deeper penetration of Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s candidate for Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined his and Putin’s intended priorities for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during a speech to the Russian Federation Council on May 14.
  • Russian authorities detained Russian Deputy Defense Minister and Russian MoD Main Personnel Directorate Head Lieutenant General Yuri Kuznetsov on May 13 on charges of accepting large-scale bribes.
  • Putin appointed former Tula Oblast Governor Alexei Dyumin and former Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev as his presidential assistants on May 14, further re-balancing his ministerial cabinet for his fifth term.
  • The Georgian parliament passed Georgia’s Russian-style “foreign agents” bill in its third and final reading on May 14, amid continued protests against the bill in Tbilisi.
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the US is interested in a bilateral security agreement with Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv on May 14.
  • Likely Ukrainian actors conducted a strike against a Russian railway line in Volgograd Oblast on May 14.
  • Russian forces recently marginally advanced near Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Svatove, Chasiv Yar, Avdiivka, Donetsk City, and Krynky.
  • The Russian MoD is reportedly coercing Russian citizens and migrants into Russian military service through false job opportunities, likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
  • Ukrainian officials continue efforts to return forcibly deported Ukrainian children to Ukrainian-controlled territory from Russia.

For full report:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-14-2024 

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