Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as able to support a protracted war in Ukraine — likely to buttress the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort falsely claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable. Putin stated on December 8 at the Council for Strategic Development and National Projects that Russia is working to overcome demographic issues and increase the birth rate, and highlighted numerous support measures the Kremlin is offering families with children.[1] Putin stated that the birth rate continues to decline, including due to unspecified “external challenges” – likely in part referring to the demographic impacts of the war in Ukraine. Putin stated that the Kremlin will include birth rate indicators in performance evaluations of regional governors. Putin claimed that sociological indicators about people’s readiness to have children have most significantly improved in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts — where Russian occupation authorities have been pushing pro-natalist policies as part of wider efforts to exploit occupied Ukraine as an economic and demographic resource.[2] Putin claimed that Russia’s GDP growth will be about one percent by the end of 2025 and that inflation will be near or below six percent, with the Central Bank forecasting four to five percent inflation in 2026. Putin claimed that Russia can now gradually increase “economic momentum” while maintaining low unemployment and moderate inflation. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin claimed that Russian GDP growth in the past three years is roughly 10 percent despite “unprecedented” sanctions pressure and that the Russian economy can “move forward” despite “attempts to restrain [Russia’s] development.”
The Kremlin’s recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy is doing markedly worse than Putin’s statements seek to suggest, however.[3] Putin intensified his efforts to portray the Russian economy as resilient and able to support protracted hostilities in Ukraine in the lead-up to the December 2 US-Russia meeting in Moscow, and Putin’s December 8 remarks are likely similarly aimed at influencing the ongoing peace negotiations.[4] Putin is likely attempting to convince the United States that increased sanctions pressure will not have its intended effect on the Russian economy and will not push Putin to make compromises to end his war against Ukraine. Putin is also notably not discussing the ongoing war in Ukraine in his speeches on the Russian economy, likely in order to obscure the connections between Russia’s battlefield losses and economic problems.[5] The Kremlin appears to be trying to dovetail its claims about the Russian economy with the false narrative that a Russian victory on the battlefield is inevitable. Both narratives aim to push the West and Ukraine into capitulating to Russia’s demands now out of fear of intensified, protracted Russian military operations in the future. ISW continues to assess that the West and Ukraine can leverage several key Russian battlefield and economic weaknesses to force the Kremlin to negotiate and make real concessions and that a Russian victory is not inevitable.[6]
Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russia’s unwillingness to compromise to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Russian State Duma Defense Committee Deputy Chairperson Alexei Zhuravlev stated on December 8 that Russia does not care who signs the “capitulation” to end the war but that the “main thing” is that the terms in the settlement “satisfy Russia.”[7] Zhuravlev claimed that the issues that led to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine stemmed from deteriorating US-Russia relations such that Russia should sign a peace agreement only with the United States — not Ukraine. Zhuravlev’s statements reiterate how the Kremlin has consistently made demands not only of Ukraine, but of NATO as well, and that the Kremlin continues to refuse a settlement to the war that amounts to anything less than Ukrainian capitulation.[8] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on December 8 that negotiations to end the war must be “done in silence” — repeating recent Kremlin calls for parties to withhold details about the ongoing negotiations from the public, likely to obfuscate Russia’s rejection of proposed peace plans.[9]
Russia is reportedly planning to foment protests in Ukraine, likely to support the longstanding Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets stated on December 8 that Russian special services are planning to destabilize the domestic situation in Ukraine by staging allegedly “peaceful protests” in large cities throughout southern and eastern Ukraine.[10] Lubinets stated that the Russian special services plan to recruit women, especially mothers of Ukrainian military personnel who are prisoners of war (POW)s or missing in action (MIA) for such protests. Lubinets stated that the Kremlin aims to use the protests to pressure Ukraine’s military-political leadership amidst ongoing peace negotiations. The Kremlin, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have long used deliberate misinterpretations of Ukrainian law and the Ukrainian constitution to allege that Zelensky is illegitimate.[11] Ukrainian intelligence notably identified the Russian “Maidan-3” information campaign in 2024 that aimed to spread doubt about Zelensky’s legitimacy.[12] The reported Russian attempt to foment protests in Ukraine is likely similarly aimed at reinforcing the false narrative that the current Ukrainian government does not have the support of the Ukrainian people. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin may use its false claims about Zelensky’s illegitimacy to renege on any future peace agreement it signs with Ukraine at a time of Russia’s choosing.[13]
Key Takeaways
- Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to portray the Russian economy as able to support a protracted war in Ukraine — likely to buttress the ongoing Russian cognitive warfare effort falsely claiming that a Russian victory is inevitable.
- Kremlin officials continue to demonstrate Russia’s unwillingness to compromise to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
- Russia is reportedly planning to foment protests in Ukraine, likely to support the longstanding Kremlin narrative that the Ukrainian government is illegitimate.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk.