Institute for the Study of War:  Russian resumes attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure

Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 2 to 3, following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on February 3 that Russian forces launched 450 drones and 71 missiles at Ukraine overnight.[1] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four Zirkon/Onyx anti-ship cruise missiles from occupied Crimea, 32 Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-300 surface-to-air missiles from Bryansk Oblast and occupied Crimea, seven Kh-22/32 cruise missiles from the Bryansk Oblast airspace, and 28 Kh-101/Iskander-K cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea and Kursk Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched 450 Shahed-, Gerbera-, and Italmas-type, and other drones — of which about 300 were Shahed drones — from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; and Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukraine downed 412 drones, the four Zirkon/Onyx missiles, 11 Iskander-M/S-300 missiles, three Kh-22/32 missiles, and 20 Kh-101/Iskander-K missiles. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 27 missiles and 31 drones hit 27 locations and that drone debris fell at 17 locations. Ukrainian officials reported that the drones and missiles struck energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Odesa oblasts.[2] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck combined heat and power plants (CHPP) and substations in Kyiv City and caused complete heat outages in the city’s Darnytskyi and Dniprovskyi raions that affected 1,170 high-rise buildings.[3] Russian forces reportedly struck energy infrastructure in Kharkiv Oblast, including CHPP-5 and two substations in Kharkiv City, prompting Ukrainian officials to declare a local state of emergency and leaving over 200,000 consumers without power.[4] Russian forces also reportedly struck thermal power plants in Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Odesa oblasts.[5] Ukrainian officials reported that the Russian strikes against energy infrastructure left 50 settlements in Vinnytsia Oblast and over 50,000 energy consumers in Odesa Oblast without power.[6]

Russia’s overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles, consistent with the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russian forces used a strike package that was 1.5 times larger than the strike packages Russian forces launched before the trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Abu Dhabi on January 23-24.[7] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat assessed on February 3 that it appears that Russian forces adopted strike packages containing larger numbers of ballistic missiles because these missiles are more difficult for Ukraine to intercept.[8] Ihnat reported that the Kh-22/32, Zirkon, Onyx, and Iskander-M missiles all have a ballistic or semi-ballistic flight path. Ihnat stated that only 10 of the 38 missiles that Ukrainian forces downed were ballistic missiles and that the remainder were cruise missiles. Russian forces often launch no or few missiles for multiple days in a row before launching strike packages with a significantly higher quantity of missiles, likely stockpiling missiles between strike series to maximize damage. Russian forces have also modified their drones and missiles to inflict more damage, including by equipping Shahed drones with mines and cluster munitions, and such measures have disproportionately affected civilian and energy infrastructure.[9] Russia’s increasingly large strike packages highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly with US-made Patriot air defense systems that can effectively counter Russian ballistic missiles.[10] Ukraine also requires partner support to maintain a diverse air defense umbrella that also incorporates interceptor drones, well-equipped mobile fire groups, fighter jets, and other kinetic and electronic warfare (EW) countermeasures.

The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations. Ukraine’s largest energy company, DTEK, reported that the overnight Russian strike was the most devastating Russian strike thus far in 2026.[11] Zelensky stated that the energy strikes moratorium was supposed to start after the January 23-24 trilateral talks and last until the next round of talks, which were originally scheduled for February 1 but have since been rescheduled to February 4 and 5.[12] Zelensky stated that the United States proposed the moratorium to de-escalate the war and that the US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations planned to decide on further de-escalation measures in the second round of talks. The Kremlin has previously offered short-term ceasefires to falsely portray the Kremlin as acting in good faith and feign Russia’s interest in peaceful war resolution while repeatedly rejecting Ukrainian and US calls for a longer or permanent moratorium on long-range strikes or a ceasefire.[13] The Kremlin will likely attempt to portray its adherence to this short-term energy strikes moratorium as a significant concession to gain leverage in the upcoming peace talks, even though the Kremlin used these few days to stockpile missiles for a larger strike package.

The short-term moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession, however, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium. Zelensky noted that Russian forces struck Ukrainian railroads and other infrastructure during the few days of the energy strikes moratorium — simply switching from targeting energy infrastructure to targeting logistics.[14] Ukraine also suffered a cascading blackout on January 31 despite the energy strikes moratorium in place at that time.[15] Russian forces did not conduct any strikes against energy infrastructure on January 31 that directly caused the outage, but the Ukrainian grid was so degraded from months of Russian strikes that it could not handle a technical malfunction and suffered a widespread failure. The Kremlin agreed to the short-term strikes moratorium only after inflicting severe damage to the Ukrainian energy grid.

\The Kremlin continues efforts to distract attention from and secure concessions in the upcoming February 4-5 peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which will coincide with the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov commented on the expiration of New START on February 5, claiming that Russia’s nuclear triad is highly modernized and that Russia has created and deployed “significant resources” to guarantee its security.[31] Ryabkov claimed that no one can doubt that Russia can guarantee its security “from all sides” and implied that Russia does not need an arms race to create new weapons to ensure its security. Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to adhere to the terms of New START for another year upon its expiration, but only if the United States does the same.[32] The Kremlin has been using carrots and sticks related to New START to entice and scare the United States into conceding to Russia’s demands about Ukraine in exchange for renewed nuclear arms talks. The Kremlin is likely trying to use rhetoric about New START to influence the upcoming US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Abu Dhabi on February 4 and 5 — the final days of New START before it expires.

The Kremlin has similarly been trying to use the prospect of US-Russian economic deals to persuade the United States to give in to Russia’s demands about Ukraine.[33] The Russian MFA claimed on February 2 that US-Russian contacts about a settlement in Ukraine are important but are not the only topics that “deserve attention.”[34] The MFA claimed that Russia and the United States, as fellow “great powers,” should focus on creating mutually beneficial projects in areas where their interests align, such as hydrocarbons and critical and rare earth minerals.

tKey Takeaways

1. Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 2 to 3, following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes.  
2. Russia’s overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles, consistent with the Kremlin’s ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure.  
3. The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations.
4. The short-term moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession, however, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium.
5. The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject the Western security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to prevent another Russian invasion.  
6. The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war demands for a peace settlement in Ukraine, particularly those that aim to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), ahead of the next round of the US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi.  
7. The Kremlin continues to weaponize religion to demand restrictions on Ukraine’s sovereignty despite Russia’s own systematic religious repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine.
8. The Kremlin continues efforts to distract attention from and secure concessions in the upcoming February 4-5 peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which will coincide with the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5.
9. The Kremlin continues to attempt to disguise and dismiss the economic impacts of its costly war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and poor economic policy decisions.
10. India is reportedly planning to curb its imports of Russian oil, which would likely further strain the Russian budget and deficit and hinder Russia’s ability to fund its war effort without more economic consequences. 
11. Russian forces are starting to use Gerbera drones as “motherships” to carry strike or reconnaissance drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear.
12. An unidentified drone recently crashed near a Polish military facility.
13. Russian forces recently advanced near Slovyansk, Pokrovsk, and Hulyaipole.