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July 20, 2024

Institute for the Study of War: Trump claims he’ll achieve a fair and lasting peace in Ukraine

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on July 19 and discussed an end-state to the war in Ukraine. Zelensky stated that he agreed to talk with Trump about steps that will produce a fair and truly lasting peace at a future personal meeting. Trump stated that both Russia and Ukraine will be able to come together and negotiate a deal that ends the war. The Kremlin continues to indicate that it is only interested in a negotiated settlement that results in Ukrainian capitulation and paves the way for Russia to destroy Ukrainian statehood, however. Zelensky has recently stressed that Ukraine must significantly weaken Russia’s battlefield position in order to develop a stronger negotiating position for future peace negotiations, and Ukrainian leadership continues to call for the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and long-term security guarantees for Ukraine as part of any lasting peace. Western security assistance that provides Ukrainian forces with the necessary equipment and weapons at the scale, timing, and regularity required for counteroffensive operations that liberate significant swaths of occupied Ukraine remains the only likely path for degrading Russia’s battlefield position and reducing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current commitment to destroying Ukrainian statehood and identity.

Ukrainian drones struck a Russian airfield in Rostov Oblast on the night of July 19 to 20. Russian sources claimed on July 20 that Ukrainian forces launched 30 drones against the Millerovo airfield in Rostov Oblast and that the strike caused damage to infrastructure and a fuel tank. Geolocated footage shows a fire at the Millerovo airfield. Rostov Oblast Governor Vasily Golubev claimed that Russian forces intercepted and destroyed 26 drones over Rostov Oblast on the night of July 19 to 20. The Russian 31st Fighter Aviation Regiment (1st Composite Aviation Division) is reportedly based at the Millerovo airfield and has SU-30SM aircraft deployed to the airfield.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke with former US President and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on July 19 and discussed an end-state to the war in Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian drones struck a Russian airfield in Rostov Oblast on the night of July 19 to 20.
  • Russian Minister of Defense Andrei Belousov and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continue to use meetings with Kremlin-affiliated milbloggers to attempt to rehabilitate the MoD’s image among pro-war Russian ultranationalists and portray Belousov as an effective manager of the MoD.
  • Russian authorities are likely trying to strengthen coercive measures aimed at impressing migrants facing deportation into military service.
  • Spanish authorities arrested three individuals accused of conducting cyberattacks as part of a prominent pro-Russian hacking group that consistently targets Ukraine and NATO states supporting Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk, Svatove, and Donetsk City.
  • Kremlin-affiliated business-focused outlet Kommersant reported on July 19 that low quality machine parts grounded five Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) Il-76MD-90A transport aircraft.

For full report:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-20-2024 

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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

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International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
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