US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff uncritically amplified a number of Russian demands, claims, and justifications regarding the war in Ukraine during an interview on March 21. Witkoff told American media personality Tucker Carlson in an interview published on March 21 that Russia “100 percent” does not want to invade Europe and that Russia “does not need to absorb Ukraine.”[1] Witkoff stated that Russia “reclaimed” five regions in Ukraine — Crimea and Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts — and that Russia “has gotten what [it] wants” and will not want more. The Kremlin has repeatedly and falsely claimed that Crimea and these four oblasts are Russian territory contrary to international law, and Witkoff’s statement about Russia “reclaiming” these areas (which Russia has illegally occupied and annexed) amplifies the Kremlin’s justifications for its expansionist territorial demands and multiple invasions of Ukraine.
Vladislav Surkov, a former close adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently reiterated a number of longstanding Kremlin claims and ambitions that directly contradict Witkoff’s assertions in an interview with French media aimed at Western audiences. Surkov previously served as a long-time close advisor to Putin and organized protests in Crimea against the Ukrainian government in 2014.[2] Surkov also oversaw the Kremlin’s 2014-2015 project to promote the creation of “Novorossiya” (an amorphous, invented region in Ukraine that Kremlin officials have claimed includes all of southern and eastern Ukraine and is an “integral” part of Russia) in eastern Ukraine.[3] Putin relieved Surkov of his duties as Presidential Aide in February 2020.[4] Surkov stated in an interview with French outlet L’Express on March 19 that a Russian victory in Ukraine would be the “military or military and diplomatic crushing of Ukraine” and the “division of this artificial quasi-state into its natural fragments.”[5] Surkov stated that Russia will achieve this strategic objective — which Surkov stated has not changed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 — even if there are “maneuvers, slowdowns, and pauses along the way.” Surkov stated that the return of Ukraine to Russia’s desired and self-defined sphere of influence has been a Russian objective since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Surkov claimed that “Ukraine is an artificial political entity” consisting of “at least” three regions — the “Russian” southern and eastern Ukraine, the “Russian-non-Russian” central area, and the “anti-Russian” west. Surkov claimed that Russia’s war in Ukraine “will separate the Russians and the anti-Russians” and will “confine” the “anti-Russians” to their “historical territory” such that they “stop spreading across Russian soil.” Surkov claimed that “perhaps” Ukraine will exist as a “real state” in the future but as a much smaller entity. Surkov implied that Europe will be involved in the future partitioning of Ukraine, claiming that “a balanced division of Ukraine will have to include a share for Brussels.” Surkov responded to a question about how he sees Russian borders, stating that the ideology of the Russian World (Russkiy Mir) “has no borders” and exists “everywhere there is Russian influence,” including cultural, military, economic, ideological, or humanitarian influence. Surkov claimed that Russia’s influence varies across regions in the world, but “is never zero.” Surkov claimed that Russia “will spread out in all directions.” The Kremlin has repeatedly used the idea of the Russian World to justify Russian military interventions into former Soviet states and to claim that areas of the former Soviet Union and Russian Empire are historical Russian territories.[6] Surkov’s statements about Russia’s claims over southern and eastern Ukraine and the future expansion of Russkiy Mir are in direct contrast to Witkoff’s statement that Russia has no territorial ambitions beyond Crimea and Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts.
Witkoff uncritically repeated several inaccurate Russian claims regarding the status of the Ukrainian territories that Russia illegally occupies. Witkoff claimed during the March 21 interview that Russian-occupied Crimea, Donbas, and Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts are “Russian-speaking” and that “there have been referendums [in these regions] where the overwhelming majority of people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule.”[15] Russia has long used similar claims to justify its unprovoked aggression against Ukraine, having used the claim that Russia needs to “protect Russian-speakers” in eastern Ukraine to justify the launch of its full-scale invasion in 2022.[16] Russia has routinely undermined its own myth of “protecting Russian speakers” in Ukraine, however, destroying predominantly Russian-speaking cities in eastern Ukraine, killing Russian-speaking Ukrainians, and deporting Russian-speaking Ukrainian children to Russia in violation of international law.[17] The Russian invasions of Ukraine have never been about protecting Russian speakers.[18]
Key Takeaways:
- US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff uncritically amplified a number of Russian demands, claims, and justifications regarding the war in Ukraine during an interview on March 21.
- Vladislav Surkov, a former close adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, recently reiterated a number of longstanding Kremlin claims and ambitions that directly contradict Witkoff’s assertions in an interview with French media aimed at Western audiences.
- Surkov’s statements are consistent with those made by Putin and senior Russian officials, who have recently and repeatedly stated that Russia intends to bring Ukraine under Russian control and establish suzerainty over neighboring countries in order to weaken the West and strengthen Russia’s global influence.
- Witkoff uncritically repeated several inaccurate Russian claims regarding the status of the Ukrainian territories that Russia illegally occupies.
- Witkoff’s statements undermine US President Donald Trump’s stated desired end state for the war in Ukraine that achieves an enduring peace and is in the best interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Pokrovsk and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to innovate new ways to leverage conscripts to increase the pool of servicemembers eligible for military service in the future.