Institute for the Study of War: U.S. government shutdown reportedly slowing weapons exports to Ukraine

Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased. ISW observed no evidence to assess that Russian forces made additional advances in the Pokrovsk direction on November 9, consistent with recent Ukrainian reporting that Russian forces have slowed their tempo of ground activity in the Pokrovsk direction to extend logistics and bring up reinforcements to southern Pokrovsk.[1] A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported on November 8 that Russian forces are in most areas of Pokrovsk but cannot encircle the town because Russian forces are only conducting infiltration missions in and through Pokrovsk from southern Pokrovsk.[2] The source stated that Russian forces are bringing mortar crews and additional drone operators into Pokrovsk to intensify the interdiction efforts against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on November 9 that Russian drone operators are primarily utilizing first-person view (FPV) drones and winged drones to interdict Ukrainian GLOCs.[3] The servicemember stated that Ukrainian forces are also interdicting Russian GLOCs into Pokrovsk and that Russian forces are “suffering” but noted that poor weather still affects Ukrainian drone operations, presumably operations both to interdict logistics and to strike Russian infiltration groups. The Ukrainian servicemember stated that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions throughout Pokrovsk and that Russian forces only hold positions in a certain part of Pokrovsk, likely referring to southern Pokrovsk. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting in Pokrovsk is not so intense that Pokrovsk is “engulfed in flames” and noted that machine gun fire is rare.[4] The milbloggers claimed that the main Russian force grouping in the Pokrovsk direction is operating about 10 kilometers from Pokrovsk itself and that both Russian and Ukrainian drones are reconnoitering access roads into the town. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are clearing Dinas Microraion in eastern Pokrovsk, that they have cut Ukrainian logistics to Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), and that fighting continues in northern, northeastern, and southern Pokrovsk.[5] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely increase their tempo of ground activity in Pokrovsk in the coming days as they extend logistics and bring forward personnel into the town.[6]

Russian forces are successfully interdicting Ukrainian logistics into Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as part of efforts to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the town. The source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence warned that Ukrainian forces have almost no logistics into Myrnohrad as Russian forces have either control or fire control over all the Ukrainian GLOCs.[7] The source stated that Ukrainian forces can no longer conduct logistics into Myrnohrad on foot due to the threat of Russian infiltration groups, drone strikes, and mines. The source stated that Russian forces are installing barbed wire and building defenses in some areas of Myrnohrad and that Russian motorcycle groups entered northern Myrnohrad. Footage published on November 8 shows Russian forces striking Myrnohrad with a purported FAB-3000 glide bomb.[8] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian motorcycle groups reached northern Myrnohrad, and the Russian forces also advanced in northeastern and southern Myrnohrad and consolidated on its eastern outskirts.[9] Russian forces have been attempting infiltration missions into and mechanized assaults against Myrnohrad from the east, but have been unsuccessful in penetrating into Myrnohrad to the same extent as Russian forces currently operating in Pokrovsk.[10] The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces assessed on November 7 that Russian forces would likely soon change their direction of attack against Myrnohrad.[11] Russian forces will most likely continue efforts to degrade Ukrainian forces’ ability to defend Myrnohrad through continued infiltration missions and indirect fire against Ukrainian positions and logistics.

The ongoing US government shutdown is reportedly affecting US weapons exports to NATO allies and Ukraine. Axios reported on November 9, citing US Department of State (DoS) estimates, that the US government shutdown has delayed more than $5 billion of US weapons exports to support NATO allies and Ukraine, including AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, Aegis integrated naval combat systems, and HIMARS rocket launchers for allies including Denmark, Croatia, and Poland.[12] Axios reported that the final destination for these weapons is unclear, but noted that NATO allies are purchasing some US weapons to give to Ukraine. A senior DOS official told Axios that the US government shutdown is also slowing down congressional approvals for new weapons sales, as DoS employees involved in the process are furloughed. The senior DOS official stated that the delayed transactions include both weapons sales directly from the US government to NATO allies and licensing for private US defense companies to export weapons. ISW is unable to confirm this report.

Key Takeaways

1. Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased.
2. Russian forces are successfully interdicting Ukrainian logistics into Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as part of efforts to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the town.
3. The ongoing US government shutdown is reportedly affecting US weapons exports to NATO allies and Ukraine.
4. European officials continue to report and respond to aerial incursions in European airspace.
5. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Hulyaipole.Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased. ISW observed no evidence to assess that Russian forces made additional advances in the Pokrovsk direction on November 9, consistent with recent Ukrainian reporting that Russian forces have slowed their tempo of ground activity in the Pokrovsk direction to extend logistics and bring up reinforcements to southern Pokrovsk.[1] A source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported on November 8 that Russian forces are in most areas of Pokrovsk but cannot encircle the town because Russian forces are only conducting infiltration missions in and through Pokrovsk from southern Pokrovsk.[2] The source stated that Russian forces are bringing mortar crews and additional drone operators into Pokrovsk to intensify the interdiction efforts against Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs). A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on November 9 that Russian drone operators are primarily utilizing first-person view (FPV) drones and winged drones to interdict Ukrainian GLOCs.[3] The servicemember stated that Ukrainian forces are also interdicting Russian GLOCs into Pokrovsk and that Russian forces are “suffering” but noted that poor weather still affects Ukrainian drone operations, presumably operations both to interdict logistics and to strike Russian infiltration groups. The Ukrainian servicemember stated that Ukrainian forces still maintain positions throughout Pokrovsk and that Russian forces only hold positions in a certain part of Pokrovsk, likely referring to southern Pokrovsk. Some Russian milbloggers claimed that fighting in Pokrovsk is not so intense that Pokrovsk is “engulfed in flames” and noted that machine gun fire is rare.[4] The milbloggers claimed that the main Russian force grouping in the Pokrovsk direction is operating about 10 kilometers from Pokrovsk itself and that both Russian and Ukrainian drones are reconnoitering access roads into the town. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces are clearing Dinas Microraion in eastern Pokrovsk, that they have cut Ukrainian logistics to Rodynske (north of Pokrovsk), and that fighting continues in northern, northeastern, and southern Pokrovsk.[5] ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will likely increase their tempo of ground activity in Pokrovsk in the coming days as they extend logistics and bring forward personnel into the town.[6]Russian forces are successfully interdicting Ukrainian logistics into Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as part of efforts to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the town. The source reportedly affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence warned that Ukrainian forces have almost no logistics into Myrnohrad as Russian forces have either control or fire control over all the Ukrainian GLOCs.[7] The source stated that Ukrainian forces can no longer conduct logistics into Myrnohrad on foot due to the threat of Russian infiltration groups, drone strikes, and mines. The source stated that Russian forces are installing barbed wire and building defenses in some areas of Myrnohrad and that Russian motorcycle groups entered northern Myrnohrad. Footage published on November 8 shows Russian forces striking Myrnohrad with a purported FAB-3000 glide bomb.[8] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian motorcycle groups reached northern Myrnohrad, and the Russian forces also advanced in northeastern and southern Myrnohrad and consolidated on its eastern outskirts.[9] Russian forces have been attempting infiltration missions into and mechanized assaults against Myrnohrad from the east, but have been unsuccessful in penetrating into Myrnohrad to the same extent as Russian forces currently operating in Pokrovsk.[10] The Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces assessed on November 7 that Russian forces would likely soon change their direction of attack against Myrnohrad.[11] Russian forces will most likely continue efforts to degrade Ukrainian forces’ ability to defend Myrnohrad through continued infiltration missions and indirect fire against Ukrainian positions and logistics.The ongoing US government shutdown is reportedly affecting US weapons exports to NATO allies and Ukraine. Axios reported on November 9, citing US Department of State (DoS) estimates, that the US government shutdown has delayed more than $5 billion of US weapons exports to support NATO allies and Ukraine, including AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, Aegis integrated naval combat systems, and HIMARS rocket launchers for allies including Denmark, Croatia, and Poland.[12] Axios reported that the final destination for these weapons is unclear, but noted that NATO allies are purchasing some US weapons to give to Ukraine. A senior DOS official told Axios that the US government shutdown is also slowing down congressional approvals for new weapons sales, as DoS employees involved in the process are furloughed. The senior DOS official stated that the delayed transactions include both weapons sales directly from the US government to NATO allies and licensing for private US defense companies to export weapons. ISW is unable to confirm this report.European officials continue to report and respond to aerial incursions in European airspace.Lithuanian officials reported on November 9 that Lithuanian authorities temporarily closed the Vilnius Airport on the night of November 8 to 9 after observing an unspecified number of balloons flying toward the airport from Belarusian airspace.[13] The Lithuanian Border Service indefinitely closed its border with Belarus on October 26 in response to intensified Belarusian balloon incursions, which have continued since October 26.[14] ISW continues to assess that Belarus is Russia’s de facto cobelligerent in the war in Ukraine; thus, Belarusian incursions into NATO airspace are part of Russia’s broader Phase Zero effort — Russia’s broader informational and psychological conditions-setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[15] UK Chief of the Defense Staff Sir Richard Knighton told the BBC on November 9 that the United Kingdom is sending military personnel and equipment to Belgium following a series of repeated unidentified drone incursions into Belgian airspace near critical infrastructure between October 31 and November 6.[16] The BBC noted that the United Kingdom is likely sending elements of its Royal Air Force (RAF) No. 2 Force Protection Wing to support the Belgian military. ISW reported on November 7 that German troops similarly arrived in Belgium to assist the Belgian military in implementing unspecified drone detection and defense measures.[17] ISW continues to assess that Russia is increasingly engaging in covert and overt attacks against Europe and that ongoing Russian airspace violations and non-conventional activity are likely part of Phase Zero efforts.[18]Key Takeaways
   1. Russian and Ukrainian forces continue interdiction campaigns in the Pokrovsk direction as the rate of Russian advances in and around Pokrovsk remains temporarily decreased.
   2. Russian forces are successfully interdicting Ukrainian logistics into Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk) as part of efforts to collapse Ukrainian defenses in the town.
   3. The ongoing US government shutdown is reportedly affecting US weapons exports to NATO allies and Ukraine.
   4. European officials continue to report and respond to aerial incursions in European airspace.
   5. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Siversk, and Hulyaipole.