US and Ukrainian officials held another round of peace negotiations in Miami, Florida, on January 17.[1] Ukrainian Presidential Office Head Kyrylo Budanov, Ukrainian Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov, and Ukrainian Servant of the People Party Head Davyd Arakhamia arrived to the United States to discuss details of a peace agreement with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner, and US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll on January 17.[2] The outcome of these negotiations is unclear as of this writing, and ISW will continue to monitor reports of US-Ukrainian peace negotiations in the coming days.
European countries appear to be cracking down against oil tankers associated with the shadow fleets of Russia and its allies. Bloomberg reported on January 16 that an unregistered oil tanker claiming to be the Arcusat turned back from a heading between Denmark and Sweden toward German waters to sail north toward Russia’s Arctic coast.[3] Bloomberg reported that prominent shipping organizations did not find a ship linked to the tanker’s claimed registration identity and that the Arcusat originated from a Chinese shipyard and disappeared from records in April 2025. Bloomberg reported that data shows that the Arcusat has sailed under different flags, including the flags of Tanzania and Cameroon. The German Federal Police recently denied the Tavian, another name for the Arcusat, entry into German territorial waters – the first time a European country has turned away a shadow fleet tanker from its territorial waters. The German Federal Police stated that it has recently denied several Russian ships passage through German territorial waters.[4] The Italian Guardia di Finanza and Customs Agency of Brindisi seized on January 17 a Tuvalu-flagged ship illegally carrying 33,000 tons of Russian ferrous material after it sailed from Russian territorial waters in the Black Sea.[5] Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi reported that monitoring service data indicates that the detained ship is likely the Turkish-owned bulk carrier Hizer Reis.[6] Commercially available maritime tracking data indicates that the ship stopped at a port in Novorossiysk from November 13 and 16, and monitoring services indicated that the vessel sailed frequently between Turkish and Russian ports.[7] European countries appear to be increasingly cracking down on vessels affiliated with Russia and its allies, whose shadow fleets are often intermingled. Dozens of shadow fleet tankers off the coast of Venezuela have reportedly switched to using Russian flags in recent months, and many shadow fleet vessels with Russian associations are sanctioned for carrying cargo in support of the Iranian regime.[8]
NATO jets scrambled in response to another Russian military aircraft flight close to NATO airspace. NATO Air Command reported that Italian Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets based in Estonia intercepted a Russian Be-200 multirole amphibious aircraft approaching the Baltic Sea during the day on January 16.[9] The January 16 interception is part of a broader pattern of Russian flights close to and violations of NATO airspace, likely intended to gauge NATO responses to Russian aggression.[10] ISW continues to assess that Russia is intensifying its “Phase Zero” campaign to destabilize Europe, undermine NATO’s cohesion, and set the political, informational, and psychological conditions for a potential future Russian war against NATO.[11]
Key Takeaways
- US and Ukrainian officials held another round of peace negotiations in Miami, Florida on January 17.
- European countries appear to be cracking down against oil tankers associated with the shadow fleets of Russia and its allies.
- NATO jets scrambled in response to another Russian military aircraft flight close to NATO airspace.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk and Pokrovsk.