December 13, 2025

Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine advances in Kupyansk

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort. Geolocated footage published on December 12 indicates that Ukrainian forces made further advances in central Kupyansk while conducting clearing operations and also advanced southeast of Petropavlivka (east of Kupyansk).[1] Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces completely seized Yuvileynyi Microraion in southwestern Kupyansk and assessed that this lost ground will likely prevent Russian forces from sustaining any remaining positions in southern Kupyansk.[2] Butusov reported that Ukrainian forces are still clearing Kupyansk, and geolocated footage published on December 12 and 13 indicates that Russian infiltration groups remain in northern and western Kupyansk.[3] The chief of staff of a Ukrainian drone battalion reported that Russian forces are still attempting to penetrate into Kupyansk, primarily on foot.[4] Russian milbloggers acknowledged Ukrainian advances into Yuvileynyi Microraion and northwest of Kupyansk and stated that heavy fighting continues near Myrove and Radkivka (both northwest to north of Kupyansk).[5] One milblogger acknowledged Russia’s loss of Radkivka and two defensive positions south and east of Radkivka.[6] Many Russian milbloggers continued to cast doubt on or outright reject many of the Ukrainian reports of advances despite available evidence supporting the Ukrainian reporting.[7]

Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 465 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones, of which roughly 270 were Shaheds, from the directions of Kursk and Oryol cities; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske and Cape Chauda, Crimea.[14] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces also launched four Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from the airspace over Tula and Tambov oblasts; five Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea; five Iskander-K cruise missiles from Kursk Oblast; and 16 Kalibr cruise missiles from the Black and Caspian seas. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 417 drones and 13 cruise missiles; eight missiles and 33 drones hit 18 locations; debris fell on three locations; and six missiles did not reach their targets (presumably due to Ukrainian electronic warfare [EW] operations). The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian strikes primarily targeted Odesa Oblast.

Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck civilian energy, residential, and port infrastructure in Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Cherkasy, Chernihiv, Kirovohrad, Kherson, and Mykolaiv oblasts, injuring at least eight civilians.[15] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Ukrainian Energy Ministry reported that the Russian attacks struck energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts, causing power outages in Sumy, Kharkiv, Odesa, Chernihiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[16] Ukrainian Internal Affairs Minister Ihor Klymenko reported that Russian strikes left over one million subscribers without power across the country.[17] Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported that Russian strikes left Odesa City without electricity, water, and heat.[18] Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported that Russian strikes damaged 20 power substations in Odesa Oblast and caused outages for at least 100,000 subscribers throughout the oblast.[19] The Ukrainian Navy reported on December 13 that Russian drones struck the Turkish vessel Viva that had been transporting sunflower oil in the Black Sea at the time of the strike.[20]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he will hold discussions regarding a peace settlement with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days.[21] Two White House officials told Axios on December 13 that US Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner will meet with Zelensky, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron, and German Chancellor Frederich Merz in Berlin on December 15.[22] A White House official stated that the United States would support a potential Ukrainian territorial referendum and sees Zelensky’s proposal to hold this referendum as progress in the peace negotiations.

Key Takeaways

  1. Ukrainian forces continue to advance within and near Kupyansk, and more details have emerged about the counteroffensive effort.
  2. Ukrainian forces began counteroffensive operations in September 2025 after relatively rapid Russian advances in the Kupyansk direction and infiltrations into Kupyansk itself.
  3. Russian forces launched 495 total missiles and drones against Ukraine overnight on December 12 to 13, heavily targeting energy infrastructure across the country.
  4. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he will hold discussions regarding a peace settlement with US and European delegations in Berlin in the coming days.
  5. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions. Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman direction.
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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

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The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.