Institute for the Study of War: Ukraine forces advance in Dnipropetrovsk

Ukrainian forces advanced 10 to 12 kilometers deep in two separate drives in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers since late January 2026. Ukrainian 1st Separate Assault Regiment Commander Captain Dmytro Filatov, whose regiment is operating in the Hulyaipole direction, stated on March 10 that the regiment pushed 12 kilometers deep into Russian positions between Nove Zaporizhzhia and Dobropillya (both north of Hulyaipole and south of Oleksandrivka).[1] The commander of a Ukrainian airborne assault battalion stated on March 10 that the battalion had advanced 10 to 11 kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction.[2] Ukrainian Southern Defense Forces Spokesperson Colonel Vladyslav Voloshyn stated on March 10 that Ukrainian forces have regained the initiative in some areas near the Zaporizhia-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[3] Voloshyn reported that Russian forces have not been advancing in the Hulyaipole direction for the past three months (since mid-December 2025) and have now shifted their focus to attacking toward Zalizynychne (west of Hulyaipole), Myrne, and Charivne (both southwest of Hulyaipole), likely due to successful Ukrainian counterattacks north and northeast of Hulyaipole.

Major General Oleksandr Komarenko, the head of the Main Operations Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff, stated on March 10 that Ukrainian forces have liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka direction.[4] ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces have liberated roughly 279 square kilometers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions since January 1, but ISW’s conservative mapping methodology underestimates Ukrainian advances. Komarenko also stated that Ukrainian forces have liberated almost all of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast but have not seized three small settlements nor cleared two other settlements — likely referring to five settlements that are both in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and the Oleksandrivka direction.[5] Ukraine’s Airborne Assault Troops previously reported that Ukrainian forces had liberated nine settlements in the Oleksandrivka direction as of March 2.[6]

ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces recently liberated Novohryhorivka, Kalynivske, and Stepove (all southeast of Oleksandrivka). Geolocated footage published on March 10 shows a Ukrainian armored vehicle operating within central Novohryhorivka, indicating that Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the area and likely also liberated Kalynivske and Stepove (both just north of Novohryhorivka).[7] A Ukrainian source stated that Ukrainian forces liberated Kalynivske and Stepove.[8] ISW is also changing its previous assessment that geolocated footage published on March 7 showing Ukrainian forces striking a Russian position in southern Ternove (southeast of Oleksandrivka) occurred after a Russian infiltration mission into the settlement.[9] ISW now assesses that the March 7 footage likely occurred before — not after — Ukrainian forces liberated Ternove as of March 6, indicating that Russian forces do not maintain position within the settlement.[10] A Ukrainian regiment operating in the Oleksandrivka direction reported on March 10 that Ukrainian forces have liberated Ternove.[11]

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Key Takeaways

1. Ukrainian forces advanced 10 to 12 kilometers deep in two separate drives in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that have reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers since late January 2026.
2. Ukrainian forces conducted mutually supporting drives in the Hulyaipole and Oleksandrivka directions in late 2025 and early 2026, respectively, to push Russian forces from Dnipropetrovsk Oblast and to undermine Russian preparations for a spring offensive.
3. Ukrainian forces were likely able to rapidly advance in the Oleksandrivka direction after infiltrating dispersed Russian positions in poor weather conditions and suppressing Russian drone-based defenses.
4. SpaceX’s blocking of Russia’s Starlink satellite connection in Ukraine in early February 2026 likely also enabled Ukrainian advances in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
5. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to exaggerate Russian battlefield advances despite Ukrainian forces’ recent liberation of significant territory in southern Ukraine.
6. Ukrainian counterattacks in southern Ukraine are likely interfering with the anticipated Russian spring-summer 2026 offensives in Donetsk Oblast and southern Ukraine despite Putin’s claims of Russian battlefield successes.
7. Russia also continues to suffer massive losses on the battlefield that will continue to hinder Russia’s ability to achieve its sweeping goals for the spring-summer 2026 campaign.
8. Ukrainian forces are intensifying their theater-wide, mid-range strike campaign against Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower, which will likely also interfere with the Russian spring-summer 2026 offensive.
9. Kremlin officials provided varying accounts of US President Donald Trump’s statements about a ceasefire in Ukraine during his March 9 call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
10. Putin continued to call on the United States to halt its ongoing military operation in the Middle East while refusing to end Russia’s own war in Ukraine.
11. The Russian government is reportedly considering a bill that would grant the Russian president powers for extraterritorial military operations to protect Russian citizens abroad.
12. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Oleksandrivka. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.
13. Ukrainian forces struck a defense plant in Russia. Russian forces launched 137 drones against Dnipro and Kharkiv cities.