US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations concluded a second day of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on January 24. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky characterized the talks as constructive and reported on January 24 that the delegations discussed parameters for ending Russia’s war in Ukraine, the necessity of US involvement in ending the war, and security guarantees necessary to end the war.[1] Zelensky stated that Ukraine is ready to hold another round of trilateral meetings if all sides are willing, potentially during the week of January 25 to 31. A source in the Ukrainian delegation told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne that the trilateral talks on January 24 were three hours long and that senior White House officials characterized the meeting as “productive.”[2]
Kremlin officials continue to respond to ongoing negotiations by reiterating Russia’s commitment to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s original maximalist war aims in Ukraine while attempting to rhetorically shift the blame for the Kremlin’s own reticence onto Ukraine. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated on January 23 that it is important to implement the “Anchorage formula” as negotiations continue.[3] Kremlin officials often attempt to exploit the lack of clarity about the outcome of the August 2025 US-Russian Alaska Summit to claim that the summit achieved a joint US-Russian understanding and agreement to end the war in Ukraine, and present the agreement in ways that benefit Russia — including by obfuscating Russia’s own efforts to impede the peace process.[4] The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) told Kremlin-affiliated outlet Izvestiya on January 24 that Russia insists that Ukraine must end its alleged prosecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (UOC MP), the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church’s (ROC) subordinate element in Ukraine, as a condition for peace in Ukraine.[5] Kremlin officials frequently demand that any military or diplomatic end to the war addresses the war’s “root causes.”[6] “The Kremlin has frequently used the concept of “root causes” as shorthand to call back to its original maximalist war justifications and demands, and has cloaked the issue of the UOC MP in this root causes language.[7] The Kremlin has long controlled the ROC’s spiritual doctrine and has used the UOC MP as an extension of the Kremlin and a tool of Russia’s hybrid warfare that seeks to enforce Russian ideologies in Ukrainian society and persecute religious minorities in occupied Ukraine.[8] Russian MFA Spokesperson Maria Zakharova also seized on an alleged Ukrainian strike in occupied Kherson Oblast to claim that Ukraine took steps to escalate the war and is unwilling to negotiate, setting conditions for Russia’s own rejection of a peace deal that does not meet all of its demands.[9] The Kremlin has used the allegation of Ukrainian strikes to justify and deflect blame away from Russia for stalled peace negotiations, including with the claimed strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29, and in occupied Khorly, Kherson Oblast on January 1. These dates have each conveniently aligned with peace talks — including a Putin call with US President Donald Trump.[10] Kremlin officials have continuously and explicitly rejected a peace on any terms other than those Russia dictates.[11] The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its unwillingness to engage in good faith negotiations to end its war in Ukraine and to portray Ukraine rather than Russia as the impediment in the peace process — particularly by invoking the ambiguity around the August 2025 Anchorage summit and claimed Ukrainian strikes against Russia and occupied Ukraine.[12]
Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike overnight on January 23 to 24 primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine, particularly Kyiv City. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on January 24 that Russian forces launched six Iskander-M ballistic missiles/S-300 air defense missiles; two Zirkon hypersonic cruise missiles; 12 Kh-22/32 cruise missiles; one Kh-59/69 cruise missile; and 375 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, Italmas-type, and other drones, of which roughly 250 were Shaheds.[13] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed nine Kh-22/32s, five Iskander-M/S-300s, one Kh-59/69, and 357 drones, that two missiles and 18 drones struck 12 locations, and that there is no information on the location of four missiles. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister and Development Minister Oleksiy Kuleba reported that Russian strikes killed one civilian and wounded dozens in Kyiv City and left over 800,000 subscribers in Kyiv City and over 400,000 subscribers in Chernihiv City without power.[14] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces launched 25 Shaheds and at least one Iskander-M against Kharkiv City overnight, injuring at least 31 civilians and damaging at least 44 buildings, including a civilian infrastructure facility.[15] Ukraine’s Energy Ministry reported that Russian strikes also caused power outages in Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv oblasts and that hourly power outages are in effect for most of Ukraine.[16]
Russia’s intensified long-range strike campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout Fall 2025 and Winter 2025-2026 has significantly degraded Ukraine’s energy grid, disproportionately effecting Ukrainian civilians. Maksym Timchenko, the head of Ukraine’s largest private energy company DTEK, told Reuters on January 23 that Russian strikes against DTEK energy infrastructure have degraded DTEK’s total power generation capacity by 60 to 70 percent and caused damages estimated at $64 to 70 billion to repair.[17] Timchenko stated that the temperature in Ukraine has fluctuated between negative 15 and 20 degrees Celsius (five to negative four degrees Fahrenheit) for the past two weeks. Timchenko stated that Russian strikes cause rolling blackouts that leave Ukrainian civilians with only three to four hours of power per day.Russia likely intends to degrade Ukraine’s power generation capacity and ability to provide Ukrainians with heat in the dead of winter, including by attempting to split Ukraine’s energy grid in half and create energy islands that are cut off from Ukraine’s electricity generation, deliveries, and transmission systems.[18] Russia began increasing the intensity of its strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure throughout Fall 2025 into Winter 2025-2026 with the goal of causing large scale disruptions to the Ukrainian power system, in what ISW continues to assess is a Russian effort to degrade Ukraine’s energy security and industrial capacity and demoralize the Ukrainian populace.[19]
Russia’s continued devastating strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure emphasizes Ukraine’s urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions for a holistic and well-rounded air defense umbrella. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on January 23 that US President Donald Trump agreed to provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of PAC-3 interceptors for Patriot air defense systems to combat Russia’s continued long-range strike campaign.[20] Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat recently noted that Ukraine’s shootdown rate of Russia’s long-range strike packages is high, but that the drones and missiles that breach Ukraine’s air defenses cause extensive damage.[21] Russian forces often launch no or few missiles for multiple days in a row before launching strike packages with a significant quantity of missiles, likely stockpiling missiles between strike series in order to maximize damage with larger strike packages.[22] Russia has also been equipping Shahed drones with cluster warheads and mines that detonate after being downed, innovating strike tactics, and adapting Shahed technology to enable the drones to change targets in real time–all of which have the effect of maximizing the damage Shahed drones can inflict on Ukrainian targets.[23] Russia’s increasingly large strike packages highlight the critical importance of Western assistance in bolstering Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, particularly with US-made Patriot air defense systems that can effectively counter Russian ballistic missile threats.[24] Ukraine also requires partner support to maintain a diverse air defense umbrella comprised of not only high-end Patriot systems, but also interceptor drones, well-equipped mobile fire groups, and fighter jets.
Russian milbloggers continue to highlight the inconsistency between the Russian military command’s claims of advances and the reality on the battlefield particularly in the Kupyansk direction. A Russian milblogger published an image on January 23 reportedly showing encircled Russian servicemembers in central Kupyansk, reporting that Ukrainian forces have encircled the servicemembers for the past three months and that Russian forces cannot reinforce or resupply the position.[29] The milblogger stated that the Russian servicemembers have managed to hold their position by retrieving ammunition and weapons from dead Ukrainian soldiers. Another Russian milblogger responded to this report by criticizing the gap between the Russian military command’s exaggerated claims of Russian control of Kupyansk and the reality for Russian forces in the town.[30] The milblogger further criticized the Russian General Staff for demanding exaggerated claims of advances from subordinate echelons that sometimes result in an eight-to-10-kilometer gap between claimed Russian advances and the real frontline, including in the Pokrovsk and Slovyansk directions and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[31] Another milblogger criticized the Russian military command on January 17 for the discrepancy between the claimed battlefield victories and the actual situation for Russian forces on the ground.[32] The milblogger criticized the Russian military command for wasting personnel on flag-raising missions in areas that Russian forces do not control to support these claimed advances, but noted that these Russian personnel frequently die on such missions. A third Kremlin-affiliated milblogger warned on January 17 that the situation with inflated gains in the Kostyantynivka direction could become as bad as the Kupyansk direction, publishing a map showing the discrepancy between the inflated claims and the “actual” extent of Russian advances in the area (actual as claimed by the milblogger, which is likely also somewhat inflated).[33] Russian milbloggers have increasingly been rejecting the alternate battlefield reality that Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior Russian military commanders are trying to create, but the Russian military command appears to remain committed to this alternative reality.[34]
Key Takeaways
- US, Ukrainian, and Russian delegations concluded a second day of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates (UAE) on January 24.
- Kremlin officials continue to respond to ongoing negotiations by reiterating Russia’s commitment to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s original maximalist war aims in Ukraine while attempting to rhetorically shift the blame for the Kremlin’s own reticence onto Ukraine.
- Russia launched another combined missile and drone strike overnight on January 23 to 24 primarily targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout Ukraine, particularly Kyiv City.
- Russia’s intensified long-range strike campaign targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure throughout Fall 2025 and Winter 2025-2026 has significantly degraded Ukraine’s energy grid, disproportionately effecting Ukrainian civilians.
- Russia’s continued devastating strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure emphasizes Ukraine’s urgent need for additional air defense systems and munitions for a holistic and well-rounded air defense umbrella.
- Independent reporting continues to indicate that Russian forces and authorities continue systematically abusing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Russian detention in violation of international law.
- Thousands of Ukrainians remain in Russian detention and are subject to this abuse.
- Russian milbloggers continue to highlight the inconsistency between the Russian military command’s claims of advances and the reality on the battlefield particularly in the Kupyansk direction.
- Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov appointed former Deputy Digital Transformation Minister Valeria Ionan as a Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on international projects.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Slovyansk.