Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia’s deep rear.[1] Russian and local Crimean sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a complex drone and missile strike against occupied Sevastopol on November 27, reportedly using Neptune anti-ship missiles, modified S-200 air defense missiles, unspecified ballistic missiles, Western-provided Storm Shadow missiles, and 40 strike drones.[2] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces intercepted 25 Ukrainian drones over occupied Crimea and the Black Sea.[3] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces targeted the Nakhimov Higher Naval School in occupied Sevastopol and the nearby Belbek Airfield, and an image published on November 27 shows a smoke plume reportedly near the naval school.[4] Russian sources denied reports that the strike damaged the school, however.[5] Ukrainian official military sources have not commented on this strike at the time of this report’s publication. ISW continues to assess that the provision of long-range strike weapons to Ukrainian forces will allow Ukrainian forces to augment their existing long-range strike capabilities and scale up the effects Ukraine can generate through long-range strikes against Russian rear areas.[6]
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on November 27 and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia’s efforts to establish a “new world order.”[7] Putin and Tokayev signed 19 other documents deepening Russian-Kazakh political, economic, energy, and transit cooperation.[8] The Kremlin likely intends to deepen economic and transit relations with Kazakhstan, in part, to continue to leverage Kazakhstan as key intermediary to facilitate sanctions evasion schemes.[9] Putin also published an article in Kazakh state-backed newspaper Kazakhstanskaya Pravda on November 27 emphasizing the strength of the Russian-Kazakh relationship largely in the same style as Putin’s previous articles published in the state-backed newspapers of other states during bilateral visits.[10] Putin and Tokayev also agreed to expand Russian educational institutions and Russian language institutions in Kazakhstan, likely as part of an ongoing effort to expand Russian soft power influence in countries previously colonized by the Russian Empire and Soviet Union.[11] Putin notably did not mention the war in Ukraine in his article, during his meeting with Tokayev, or in the package of the signed documents, likely omitting any mention of the war in order to posture Russia as an economically stable and viable partner ahead of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit in Astana on November 28.
The Russian military command may have imposed controversial restrictions on the use of personal vehicles by Russian volunteers delivering military and humanitarian aid to Russian troops on the frontlines, likely as part of an ongoing force centralization effort. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that overnight on November 26 and 27 many Russian milbloggers received audio messages in which the Russian military command threatened all servicemembers to stop using personal vehicles that are not registered for military operations in the combat zone.[12] The audio message reportedly revealed that Russian commanders will punish servicemembers caught using personal vehicles by sending the servicemembers to fight as part of an assault group alongside any frontline commanders who authorized the use of private vehicles. The milblogger claimed that there are claims that the new Southern Military District (SMD) commander, likely referring to reportedly recently appointed Lieutenant General Alexander Sanchik, issued the order but did not confirm or deny these claims.[13] The milblogger noted that the order will effectively allow the Russian military command to stop and confiscate any private vehicles belonging to volunteers delivering humanitarian aid and to commit the drivers and their commanders to frontline assaults as a punishment for violating the order. The milblogger noted that the timing and the harshness of this order may suggest that the order is fake, possibly in an effort to allow the Russian military command to later reverse its order and appear responsive to public outcry. Other Russian milbloggers complained that the order will severely impact the community of Russian volunteers that evacuate troops and deliver military and humanitarian supplies to the frontline and warned that the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) efforts to centralize humanitarian aid deliveries to Russian servicemembers will result in supply and provision shortages among frontline units.[14] The Russian military command had been trying to restrict the use of personal vehicles personal and certain personal electronic devices in the combat zone and set stricter guidelines for the grooming standards of men on the frontlines since January 2023 in a likely attempt to centralize control over Russian forces.[15]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia’s deep rear.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met in Astana on November 27 and signed a joint statement deepening the Russian-Kazakh strategic partnership within the framework of Russia’s efforts to establish a “new world order.”
- The Russian military command may have imposed controversial restrictions on the use of personal vehicles by Russian volunteers delivering military and humanitarian aid to Russian troops on the frontlines, likely as part of an ongoing force centralization effort.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced within Toretsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions, and within the main Ukrainian salient Kursk Oblast.
- The Kremlin continues to promote the “Time of Heroes” program that aims to militarize the Russian government at the local, regional, and federal levels as a way to prevent the return of “Afghan syndrome” in Russia.