Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia’s wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. CNN reported on July 11 that five US and Western officials stated that US intelligence uncovered a Kremlin plan in early 2024 to assassinate German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger. US intelligence reportedly informed the German government, which was able to foil the plot. CNN reported that the planned assassination against Papperger was one of multiple plans to kill European defense industry executives, but that the plot against Papperger was the “most mature.” European authorities have reported that Russian actors and proxies have conducted sabotage and other hybrid warfare operations aimed at deterring and disrupting Western aid to Ukraine, and NATO and its member states have repeatedly warned about intensifying Russian hybrid operations on NATO member territory.
Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS “malfunctions” in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia. Finnish federal transport and communications agency Traficom told Finnish outlet Iltalehti on July 11 that GPS “malfunctions” have increased in the past week in reference to a specific incident in the Gulf of Finland overnight on July 10-11. A Finnish maritime pilot reported on X(formerly Twitter) that he experienced severe GPS and radar malfunctions overnight while guiding other boats near Kotka and Hamina on Finland’s southern coast. The pilot published footage of his radar malfunctioning and reported that GPS was unavailable for 90 percent of the route between the Orrengrund pilot substation and Hamina harbor. Reports of increased GPS and radar disruptions in the Gulf of Finland cohere with reports of Russian GPS jamming affecting Baltic states and other areas of Europe. Likely Russian jamming from Kaliningrad has previously jammed the GPS of a plane carrying then–UK Defense Minister Grant Shapps and forced Finnish aircraft carrier Finnair to ground multiple flights out of Finland. The GPS interference in the Baltics forced Finnair to cancel flights to Tartu, Estonia until the Tartu airport implemented an approach solution for planes flying into the airport that does not rely on GPS. Russia’s apparent GPS jamming is likely part of Russia’s intensifying hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states likely aimed at undermining support for Ukraine and NATO unity.
Key Takeaways:
- Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia’s wider efforts to destabilize NATO members.
- Finnish authorities reported an increase in GPS “malfunctions” in the past week and that most disruptions to aviation and maritime GPS and radar originate from within Russia.
- Ukraine intends to hold a second meeting of the Global Peace Summit by the end of 2024 and reportedly plans to invite Russia to participate.
- European Union (EU) leadership is reportedly considering restricting Hungary’s power as EU Council president following Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s meeting with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow and his efforts to present himself as a potential mediator between Russia and Ukraine.
- The Russian government continued efforts to root out critical voices and consolidate control over the Russian information space.
- The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) claimed that it prevented a terrorist attack against an Orthodox church in Maykop, Republic of Adygea on July 11.
- Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kharkiv City; and Russian forces recently advanced south of Siversk, northwest of Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City.
- Russian federal subjects (regions) continue to use monetary incentives as part of Russia’s crypto-mobilization recruitment efforts.
For full report: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-11-2024