Ukraine’s Western partners reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for all participants of the group to sign bilateral security agreements with Ukraine in order to strengthen Ukrainian forces and protect Ukraine’s energy sector.[1] Zelensky emphasized the importance of providing Ukraine with more air defense systems and stated that Ukraine wants to supply Ukrainian forces with a record number of domestically produced and internationally procured drones in 2025. Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov announced that the Ukraine Defense Contact Group approved eight roadmap documents that outline the Ukrainian forces’ objectives through 2027 in key areas for international cooperation, including air defense, artillery, armored vehicles, drones, air force, and maritime security.[2] Umerov stated that the roadmaps aim to ensure that the Ukrainian military is compatible with NATO and serve as the basis for medium- and long-term support for Ukraine. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told Bloomberg ahead of the January 8 Ramstein meeting that Russia has some advantages in the war but is also facing challenges, as evidenced by Russia’s turn to North Korea and Iran for assistance in its war against Ukraine.[3]
Ukraine’s Western partners announced additional military aid packages at Ramstein Air Base on January 9. Austin announced a new US military aid package for Ukraine under the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) valued at approximately $500 million.[4] The package includes AIM-7, RIM-7, and AIM-9M air defense missiles; air-to-ground munitions; F-16 support equipment; and small-arms ammunition.[5] German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will provide Ukraine with an unspecified number of IRIS-T air defense missiles.[6] Polish Deputy Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz announced that Poland is also preparing a new aid package for Ukraine.[7] UK Defense Secretary John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds jointly announced that the drone coalition, including the UK, Latvia, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Sweden, will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones at an unspecified future time after the coalition signed contracts worth 45 million pounds ($55.4 million).[8]
Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are reportedly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine with half measures and are increasingly concerned with Putin’s timeline to end the war. Sources in the Russian presidential administration, State Duma, and wider Russian federal government and regional governments told Russian opposition media outlet Meduza that Russian elites are increasingly “disappointed” and “tired” of waiting for the war to end and are growing increasingly concerned about the long-term impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s economy.[9] Two sources close to the presidential administration noted that the Russian government currently lacks a clear vision for post-war Russia and that an end to the war could be “critical” for the presidential administration if the administration cannot identify a clear narrative and political framework for Russian society after the war. A source in the Russian presidential administration told Meduza that Russian elites, primarily high-ranking security officials, are increasingly frustrated with not having “enough” manpower and materiel to conduct the war and assess that Putin needs to conduct “mobilization” and completely transition Russian society and the Russian economy to a wartime footing.
High-ranking Russian security officials appear to be assessing that Russia needs to intensify its war in Ukraine rather than seek an exit via negotiations. Meduza‘s report suggests that Russian security and military officials may recognize that the Russian military is not accomplishing significant territorial gains proportionate to the manpower and materiel losses they are incurring in Ukraine. The Russian military command has, thus far, tolerated taking exorbitant personnel losses in exchange for tactically but not operationally significant advances, and Putin’s theory of victory is predicated on accepting such losses so long as Russian forces continue to grind forward in Ukraine.[10] Average daily Russian advances slowed by roughly nine square kilometers in December 2024 after three straight months of increasing territorial gains and personnel losses in September, October, and November 2024, however, and the Russian military command may be less willing than Putin to incur such high casualty rates if Russian forces’ rate of advance continues to slow.[11] Russian security and military officials do not appear prepared to abandon the war as a result of these losses, however, but are reportedly instead advocating for Putin to intensify Russia’s war effort by calling for additional partial reserve callups and a formal decision to transition to a wartime footing, likely in hopes of flooding the battlefield with manpower and materiel. ISW continues to assess that Putin is resistant to conducting a partial involuntary reserve callup or further mobilizing the Russian economy, as such decisions would be deeply unpopular among Russians and would further strain Russia’s labor shortages and economy.[12] It remains unclear if this group of Russian security and military officials calling for further manpower and economic mobilization will succeed in convincing Putin to take more dramatic measures to meet the Russian military’s needs in Ukraine, although mounting personnel losses and increasing challenges in meeting voluntary recruitment targets may cause Putin to conduct an involuntary partial reserve callup in the near future.
The Armenian government approved a draft law on January 9, beginning Armenia’s accession process into the EU.[25] Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced on January 9 that the Armenian government does not object to the law’s adoption and noted that the Armenian population must approve the decision on Armenia’s possible future EU membership through a referendum.[26]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukraine’s Western partners reiterated their support for Ukraine and their commitment to the development of Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB) at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on January 9.
- Ukraine’s Western partners announced additional military aid packages at Ramstein Air Base on January 9.
- Russian elites and high-ranking security officials are reportedly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to wage a full-scale war in Ukraine with half measures and are increasingly concerned with Putin’s timeline to end the war.
- High-ranking Russian security officials appear to be assessing that Russia needs to intensify its war in Ukraine rather than seek an exit via negotiations.
- Russian elites’ reported diagnosis of the main problem with Russia’s conduct of the war is inaccurate, as Russia’s failure to restore maneuver to the battlefield — not a shortage of manpower — is the main factor causing Russia’s relatively slow rate of advance.
- Meduza‘s report indicates that Russia’s security elite — like Putin himself — is uninterested in a negotiated and peaceful resolution to the war in the near future.
- A Russian opposition investigative outlet reported that Russian authorities have turned a pretrial detention center (SIZO) in Taganrog, Voronezh Oblast into a torture center for Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and imprisoned Ukrainian civilians.
- The UN condemned the recent surge in Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs.
- The Armenian government approved a draft law on January 9, beginning Armenia’s accession process into the EU.
- Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk and in Kursk Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Sudzha.
- Russian officials continue to indicate that the Kremlin intends to further militarize the Russian government and Russian society in the long term.