US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Rustem Umerov and Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff Major General Andriy Hnatov met with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and former Senior Advisor to the US President Jared Kushner in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5 to continue discussing a possible peace settlement.[1] A source with knowledge of the negotiations told Axios that Witkoff and Kushner briefed the Ukrainian delegation on the December 2 Witkoff-Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting.[2] Umerov previously led the Ukrainian delegation in talks with US negotiators in Hallandale Beach, Florida on November 30.[3] Russian Presidential Aide Yuriy Ushakov stated on December 5 that Russia is waiting on a response to the December 2 talks.[4] ISW will continue to monitor for more information about the ongoing peace negotiations process.
Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December 5 as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket. Geolocated footage published on December 4 indicates that Russian forces recently advanced north and southeast of Myrnohrad (east of Pokrovsk.[5] Additional geolocated footage published on December 4 indicates that Russian forces also infiltrated into positions in northwestern Pokrovsk.[6] These geolocations are not yet dispositive that Russian forces have achieved a complete land encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket, however. Commander of the Ukrainian 7th Rapid Reaction Corps of the Air Assault Forces, Commander Brigadier General Yevhen Lasiychuk, reported on December 5 that Russian forces have not encircled the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket and that Ukrainian forces hold northern Pokrovsk and maintain positions in central Pokrovsk.[7] Lasiychuk noted that Russian forces are avoiding urban warfare and are instead attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from its flanks. ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will very likely complete the seizure of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad after a 21-month campaign, though the timing and operational implications of these seizures remain unclear at this time.[8] Although ISW has not observed visual evidence or official Ukrainian reports to assess that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad, the situation is likely extremely difficult, and Russian forces very likely can disrupt narrow Ukrainian exfiltration routes and ground lines of communication (GLOCs) with artillery and drones.
Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI). A Ukrainian artillery battalion commander operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported on December 5 that Russian forces are using drones in an attempt to interdict Ukrainian GLOCS within a 50-kilometer range of Pokrovsk but that Ukrainian forces are attempting to mitigate.[9] Lasiychuk noted that Ukrainian forces are able to supply and conduct rotations into the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket and are working to widen the GLOC north of the pocket.[10] Russia’s evolving campaign design relies on achieving partial effects battlefield air interdiction (BAI) against Ukrainian logistics at an operational depth (about 25 to 100 kilometers) over several months to degrade Ukrainian defensive abilities such that Russian forces can advance more easily against a degraded Ukrainian forces.[11] Russian forces have dedicated elite drone units, such as the Rubikon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies, to striking Ukrainian logistics and drone operators at operational depths.[12] A successful Russian BAI campaign within a 50-kilometer range of Pokrovsk would also impact Ukrainian logistics into the Kramatorsk, Kostyantynivka, and Novopavlivka directions and would likely enable more rapid Russian advances, especially if Russian forces managed to replicate campaign successes in other areas of the frontline.
Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil and defense industrial base (DIB) infrastructure. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 5 that Ukrainian forces struck an unspecified facility and caused a fire at the Temyruk seaport in Krasnodar Krai, which houses liquified natural gas (LNG) infrastructure, ships, and other cargo.[13] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that the battle damage assessment (BDA) is ongoing. A Krasnodar Krai government source reported on December 5 that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged port infrastructure in Temyruk and caused a fire covering an area of 1,350 square kilometers.[14] The Ukraine General Staff also reported that Ukrainian strikes damaged an installation and caused a fire at the Syzran Oil Refinery in Samara Oblast, which has an annual processing capacity of seven to 8.9 million tons of oil.[15] Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi reported that Ukrainian forces also struck the Balashovskaya electrical substation in Volgograd Oblast.[16]
The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed on December 4 that Ukrainian forces struck the Nevinnomyssk Azot Chemical Plant in Nevinnomyssk, Stavropol Krai on the night of December 3 to 4.[17] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Nevinnomyssk Azot Chemical Plant is a critical part of the Russian DIB with a production capacity of over one million tons of ammonia and up to 1.4 million tons of ammonium nitrate per year — making the plant a key supplier of basic components for explosives and ammunition products for the Russian military. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on December 5 that a recent Ukrainian strike against Saratov Oil Refinery, Saratov Oblast, likely referring to a strike overnight on November 27 to 28, damaged the refinery’s ELOU-AVT-6 primary oil purification unit.[18] The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Ukrainian strikes forced the Saratov Oil Refinery to suspend crude oil processing as of December 2025 and that the refinery is operating at under 50 percent of its capacity.
Key Takeaways
- US and Ukrainian officials continued peace talks to end the war in Ukraine in Miami, Florida on December 4 and 5.
- Available open-source information indicates that Russian forces have not encircled Ukrainian forces in Myrnohrad as of December 5 as Russian forces continue efforts to complete the encirclement of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket.
- Russian forces are attempting to completely deny Ukrainian tactical- and operational-level logistics to the Pokrovsk direction using drones to achieve effects of battlefield air interdiction (BAI).
- Ukrainian forces continue to strike Russian oil and defense industrial base (DIB) infrastructure.
- Five unidentified drones flew over a major French nuclear submarine base on the evening of December 4 amid increasing reports of drones flying over European military infrastructure.
- Russian forces committed a war crime in the Siversk direction.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka. Russian forces recently advanced near Borova and Pokrovsk.