Institute for the Study of War: Zelenskyy demands Russia withdraw to pre-2022 frontline
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations. Zelensky stated during his address at the Munich Security Conference on February 15 that Putin intends to cut Ukraine out of negotiations about the resolution of the war in Ukraine and conduct direct bilateral negotiations with the United States.[1] ISW has previously noted that Putin has recently attempted to present himself as equal to Trump and to present Russia as a global power comparable to the United States and as an heir to the Soviet Union’s “superpower” status.[2] Zelensky stated that Putin wants to embarrass Trump and have Trump attend the Russian Victory Day Parade — which highlights Russia’s role in defeating Nazi Germany during the Second World War — on May 9 as a “prop.”[3] Zelensky’s warning aligns with a report from Russian opposition news outlet Meduza that the Kremlin instructed Russian state media to reduce reporting about Trump and instead portray Putin as a strong and decisive leader, as well as to frame the February 12 Putin-Trump phone call as a victory for Putin.[4] Zelensky also stated that Trump has not discussed the prospect of having other European states participate in negotiations and that Ukraine and the rest of Europe need to present a united front to Putin and Europe needs to participate in decisions about its own future.[5] The Kremlin has routinely attempted to portray the US as the only other relevant actor in Ukraine besides Russia to deny Ukraine’s agency in future negotiations and set conditions to convince the US to ignore Ukraine’s interests, all likely to demand significant concessions in Russia’s favor.[6] Zelensky also reiterated his warning that Russia will field 15 new divisions and use military exercises in Belarus to threaten NATO.[7]
Ukrainian and US officials continue to provide details on upcoming peace negotiations to end the war. Zelensky told Newsmax on February 15 that Russian forces at “minimum” need to withdraw to the pre-full scale invasion frontline and reiterated his commitment to ending the war in 2025.[8] US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine Keith Kellogg stated that the US aims to engage “all parties in a peace process” within 180 days (by roughly August 2025) and noted that other European states would not “be at the table” in peace negotiations but that the US will consider their points of view.[9]
Ukraine’s US and European partners continue to work to jointly develop Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB). Ukraine’s state-owned defense enterprise Ukroboronprom signed a joint venture agreement with French defense company Thales International SAS on February 15 to create advanced technology and provide operational support in the areas of air defense, radar, electronic warfare (EW), tactical communications, and optoelectronic systems.[10] Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov met on February 15 with the heads of European defense companies KNDS France and KNDS Deutschland to discuss maintaining equipment that Ukraine’s partners have transferred to Ukraine and the supply of new weapons, including self-propelled artillery systems.[11] The delegations also discussed the possibility of jointly producing 155mm artillery ammunition, repairing and modernizing Ukrainian air defense systems, and developing drone systems and artificial intelligence (AI). Umerov also met on February 15 with a delegation from Boeing Defense, Space, and Security to discuss joint drone, ammunition, and air weapons production.[12]
Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin’s false narrative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s illegitimacy and Russia’s longstanding goal of destroying the Ukrainian state. Medvedchuk — a close personal ally of Putin whom Putin initially wanted to install in place of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky following Russia’s full-scale invasion — claimed during an interview Kremlin newswire TASS published on February 15 that Zelensky is the illegitimate leader of Ukraine and therefore that Zelensky cannot cancel the 2022 decree banning negotiations with Putin.[13] Medvedchuk claimed that the only government body that can cancel the decree in the absence of a legitimate president is the Ukrainian Constitutional Court but that the court currently does not have the necessary quorum to make decisions.[14] Medvedchuk is attempting to exploit the fact that the terms of three judges on the Ukrainian Constitutional Court ended two weeks ago (in January 2025), leaving the court with only 11 of its 18 judges and unable to hold Grand Chamber meetings, which require a quorum of 12 judges.[15] (Ukrainian officials are in the process of interviewing and ranking candidates to make the final selections.[16]) Zelensky, however, remains the legitimate president of Ukraine as he adhered to Ukrainian law and constitution and did not hold elections under martial law in 2024.[17] Putin and other Kremlin officials have repeatedly used deliberately false readings of Ukraine’s law and constitution to claim that Zelensky is an illegitimate president, and Medvedchuk’s claims about the Constitutional Court are just the latest variation on this theme.[18] The platforming of the Kremlin’s false narrative about Ukraine’s legal inability to negotiate by a major Kremlin-controlled outlet casts serious doubts on Moscow’s willingness to negotiate in good faith about a settlement of the war and sets informational conditions for Russia to violate any agreement reached on the grounds that the Ukrainian government had no legal right to conclude it.
Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostyantynivka — the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast — in Spring and Summer 2025. Russian forces made rapid advances aimed at expanding the Russian salient south and southwest of Pokrovsk in December 2024 and January 2025, but Russian advances have slowed southwest of Pokrovsk since early February 2025.[24] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 14 during the Munich Security Conference that the situation in the Pokrovsk direction has improved in recent days, and the spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the area stated that Russian activity has become less intense near Pokrovsk in recent days.[25] Russian forces have struggled to advance north of Kotlyne and west of Udachne as they appear to have come up against more concerted Ukrainian defenses in these areas.[26] Ukrainian forces have also conducted several counterattacks near Kotlyne and Pishchane (southeast of Kotlyne) aimed at threatening Russian positions in the salient.[27] One Russian milblogger expressed concern on February 15 that slowing Russian advances may allow Ukrainian forces to launch significant counterattacks in the coming weeks and risk giving Ukrainian forces the opportunity to collapse the Russian salient south of Pokrovsk.[28]
Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area. Ukraine’s Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reported on February 11 that Russian forces suffered roughly 7,000 personnel killed in action (KIA) in the Pokrovsk direction in January 2025, and Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on February 2 that Russian forces suffered 15,000 total casualties in this direction in January 2025.[29] Russian forces have suffered significant personnel losses throughout the frontline in the past five and a half months and have likely suffered most of these losses in the Pokrovsk direction.[30] Such losses are likely negatively impacting the combat effectiveness of Russian units in the area.
A Russian milblogger and former Storm-Z instructor claimed on February 15 that Ukrainian drone operations are significantly impeding Russian activity in the Pokrovsk direction.[31] The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drones are striking any Russian forces operating more than three kilometers north and west of Selydove (currently 11 kilometers south and 35 kilometers east of the frontline) and that Ukrainian drones are monitoring and restricting access to all roads in this direction. The milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drones are making it “impossible” for Russian forces to conduct rotations or resupply frontline units and that Russian activity south and southwest of Pokrovsk is currently very challenging. The milblogger suggested that Ukrainian forces have created a strong layered defense comprised of minefields, conventional artillery systems, and strike and reconnaissance drones and are successfully integrating reconnaissance from drones with ground-based fire systems to improve Ukrainian strike capabilities in the area. The milblogger expressed concern that Russia is far from reaching parity with Ukrainian drone operations and noted that excessive Russian formalization efforts have stalled the development of Russia’s drone capabilities.
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to create conditions to frame Putin as the victor over US President Donald Trump in negotiations.
- Ukraine’s US and European partners continue to work to jointly develop Ukraine’s defense industrial base (DIB).
- Kremlin-controlled state media used an interview with Kremlin-affiliated former Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Viktor Medvedchuk to reiterate the Kremlin’s false narrative about Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s illegitimacy and Russia’s longstanding goal of destroying the Ukrainian state.
- Russian advances south and southwest of Pokrovsk have slowed over the last two weeks amid indications that the Russian military command may prioritize offensive operations against Kostyantynivka — the southernmost point of Ukraine’s fortress belt in Donetsk Oblast — in Spring and Summer 2025.
- Russian advances may be slowing south of Pokrovsk due to degradation among frontline Russian units and intensified Ukrainian drone operations in the area.
- The Russian military command may also intend to prioritize assaults on Kostyantynivka in 2025 and are thus reportedly not reinforcing the Russian force grouping south of Pokrovsk.
- Russian cargo vessels have continued to evacuate military assets from the port of Tartus as Russia negotiates its presence in Syria with the interim government.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Velyka Novosilka and in Kursk Oblast.
- Russian occupation authorities continue to create regional analogues to the federal “Time of Heroes” program, which aims to place veterans of the war in Ukraine in government positions as part of Kremlin efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia and militarize society and government.