Ukrainian forces continued their long range strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on January 5 to 6. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 6 that Ukrainian forces struck the 100th Arsenal of the Russian Main Missile and Artillery Directorate (GRAU) near Neya, Kostroma Oblast.[1] Sources within Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian media outlets that the strike caused secondary explosions of ammunition.[2] The sources added that the arsenal supplied ammunition depots in the Russian Central and Moscow military districts. Geolocated footage published on January 6 shows a smoke plume near the arsenal.[3] Kostroma Oblast Governor Sergei Sitnikov claimed on January 6 that falling drone fragments started a fire at an unspecified military base in Neysky Raion, and announced the opening of an evacuation point for residents of southern Neya.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported on January 6 that Ukrainian forces also struck the Gerkon Plus oil depot near Streletskie Khutora, Usmansky Okrug, Lipetsk Oblast, starting a fire.[5] Sources within the SBU told Ukrainian media outlets that the depot supplies oil to Tambov, Voronezh, and Lipetsk oblasts.[6] Geolocated footage published on January 6 shows a fire at the depot.[7] Lipetsk Oblast Governor Igor Artamonov claimed on January 6 that falling drone fragments started a fire at an unspecified industrial facility in Usmansky Okrug.[8]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with leaders of states in the Coalition of the Willing in Paris on January 6 to discuss possible security guarantees for post-war Ukraine. The Coalition of the Willing issued a statement reiterating that ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty and lasting security will be an “integral” part of a future peace agreement.[9] The coalition stated that it is ready to commit to politically and legally binding guarantees that will activate upon the start of a ceasefire. The guarantees will include a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; the long term military assistance and armament of Ukraine; a multinational force to support deterrence measures in the air, at sea, and on land; binding commitments to support Ukraine in the event of renewed Russian aggression, including the use of military capabilities, intelligence and logistics support, diplomatic initiatives, and the implementation of additional sanctions on Russia; and deepening long-term defense cooperation with Ukraine, including joint training and defense industrial production. Kremlin officials have repeatedly labelled such Western security guarantees for Ukraine, particularly the deployment of foreign troops, as “unacceptable” to Russia.[10]
A German military document reportedly describes how Russia is using covert attacks against German infrastructure to prepare for a potential Russia-North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) war in the future, in line with ISW’s ongoing assessments. Western outlets reported in late December 2025 and early January 2026 that a German military document states that Russia is intensifying its covert attacks on key German infrastructure, likely as possible preparation for a wider conflict.[11] The document reportedly also frames Russian cyber operations and influence campaigns as preparation for a military confrontation. The document further notes that Germany expects Russia to target German energy and defense infrastructure early, given Germany’s role as a NATO hub for moving and sustaining forces and forecasts that Russia will see Germany as a priority target for long range missile strikes, armed drones, and special forces after an open armed attack on NATO’s eastern flank. The document presents an assessment that Russia will develop these capabilities and “strategic options” by 2029 at the latest, even if Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unchanged. ISW continues to assess that Russia would likely be able to pose a significant threat to NATO earlier than many Western estimates, particularly in the event of a future ceasefire in Ukraine that would free up Russian forces and allow Russia to rearm and reconstitute.[12] Russian covert attacks against German infrastructure are likely a line of effort within Russia’s “Phase Zero” campaign — the informational and psychological condition setting phase — to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[13]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces continued their long range strike campaign against Russian military and energy infrastructure overnight on January 5 to 6.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with leaders of states in the Coalition of the Willing in Paris on January 6 to discuss possible security guarantees for post-war Ukraine.
- A German military document reportedly describes how Russia is using covert attacks against German infrastructure to prepare for a potential Russia-NATO war in the future, in line with ISW’s ongoing assessments.
- Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk and Hulyaipole directions.