Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed extending Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 30-hour unilateral truce on Russian military operations in Ukraine to a complete and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Putin ordered Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov to officially halt all Russian military actions in Ukraine on April 19, effective from 1800 Moscow time on April 19 until 0000 Moscow time on April 21.[1] Putin stated that Russia will “assume that the Ukrainian side will follow [Russia’s] example” while ordering Russian forces to “be ready to repel possible violations of the truce” by Ukrainian forces. Zelensky responded to Putin’s order later on April 19 and proposed that Russia and Ukraine extend Putin’s 30-hour truce to a “complete and unconditional” 30-day ceasefire if Russian forces actually cease all military operations.[2] Zelensky stated that Ukraine will “mirror” Russia’s response and accused Russia of imposing the 30-hour truce for “headlines” rather than demonstrating genuine confidence-building measures. Zelensky reported that, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russian forces continue assault operations and shelling in several unspecified areas of the frontline. This truce is unlikely to hold given that Russian forces appear to have continued limited offensive operations and indiscriminate shelling across the frontline in the first few hours of the truce and given Russia’s continued rejection of a full ceasefire. The United States and Ukraine jointly proposed implementing an immediate 30-day full ceasefire to Russia on March 13, but Putin and other Russian officials have repeatedly rejected the proposal since then.[3]
Putin stated that the temporary truce will demonstrate whether Ukraine is willing to comply with agreements and participate in peace negotiations “aimed at eliminating the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis.”[4] Russian officials regularly invoke the “root causes” phrase to allude to Russia’s unyielding demands for NATO to abandon its open-door policy and for regime change in Ukraine.[5] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces will observe the Easter truce provided that Ukrainian forces reciprocate.[6] It is unlikely that Russian officials and military commanders effectively communicated plans to implement the temporary truce to frontline units or Ukrainian officials prior to Putin’s announcement. Russia’s prior well-evidenced behavior regarding the temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against energy infrastructure indicates that Russian officials likely intend to continue making unsubstantiated allegations of Ukrainian truce violations.[7] Russia, in this sense, is likely leveraging its unilateral implementation of a temporary truce in Ukraine to introduce informational conditions that will act as a pretext to support Russia’s continued efforts to undermine and discredit Ukraine. Russia may exploit unsubstantiated claims of Ukrainian truce violations to undermine support for the proposed peace framework that the United States presented in Paris, France, on April 17. Russia is also likely attempting to curry favor with the United States and portray itself as an agreeable negotiating partner in direct response to US President Donald Trump’s recent remarks that the United States will reconsider its role in brokering peace in Ukraine, depending on how the peace process develops in the coming days.[8]
US officials are reportedly growing frustrated with the Kremlin’s rejections of US proposals to end the war in Ukraine. The New York Times (NYT), citing European officials who were familiar with the US discussions in Paris on April 17, reported on April 18 that the US stance on a ceasefire remains largely the same but that Russian officials have “dragged their feet” and insisted on additional conditions for US President Donald Trump’s proposed unconditional general ceasefire, including the “denazification” of Ukraine.[9] Russian President Vladimir Putin named “denazification” as one of his main goals in launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Russian officials have previously defined “denazification” as the “liquidation of those who instill” Russophobia in other people.[10] Putin and other Kremlin officials have since reiterated this demand for “denazification” to call for regime change in Ukraine and the installation of a pro-Russian proxy government.[11] Axios reported on April 18 that two European diplomats stated that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told UK, German, and French diplomats that President Trump is “losing his patience” and may withdraw from the peace process if a peace deal is not concluded “soon.”[12] Trump stated on April 18 that he hopes to conclude a peace deal in Ukraine “quickly” and that if either Ukraine or Russia “makes it very difficult,” then “we’re just going to take a pass.”[13] CNN reported on April 18 that a source familiar with the Trump administration stated that the Trump administration is attempting to plan another meeting between US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and Russian authorities to discuss the proposed framework.[14]
Ukraine and Russia conducted the largest prisoner of war (POW) exchange on April 19 since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on April 19 that Ukrainian authorities returned 277 Ukrainian POWs, comprised of members of the Ukrainian forces, National Guard, State Transport Service, and Border Guard, from Russian captivity.[15] Zelensky thanked the United Arab Emirates for mediating the POW exchange with Russia and noted that Ukrainian authorities have returned a total of 4,552 Ukrainian civilians and soldiers from Russian captivity since the start of the war in February 2022. The Russian MoD claimed on April 19 that Russia and Ukraine conducted a 246-to -246 POW exchange and that Russia transferred an additional 31 wounded Ukrainian POWs to Ukraine in exchange for 15 wounded Russian POWs.[16]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposed extending Russian President Vladimir Putin’s 30-hour unilateral truce on Russian military operations in Ukraine to a complete and unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
- US officials are reportedly growing frustrated with the Kremlin’s rejections of US proposals to end the war in Ukraine.
- Ukraine and Russia conducted the largest prisoner of war (POW) exchange on April 19 since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk.