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October 16, 2024

Institute for the Study of War:  Zelenskyy ‘Victory Plan’ forsees war’s end next year 

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine’s five-part Victory Plan aimed at winning the war by the end of 2025 to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, which includes a promise to contribute experienced Ukrainian troops to defending NATO’s eastern flank following the resolution of the war in Ukraine. Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s Victory Plan is intended to end the war “no later than” 2025 and is composed of five points, including: an immediate invitation to join NATO; continued Western support and aid including equipping Ukrainian brigades, supporting Ukraine’s ability to use Western-provided weapons to strike military targets in Russia and increasing intelligence sharing with Ukraine; Western and Ukrainian non-nuclear strategic deterrence against Russia; Western investment in Ukraine’s strategic economic growth; and a promise that Ukrainian forces will “replace” certain Western military contingents currently stationed in Europe after the war’s conclusion. Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces will use their experience in the war to strengthen NATO’s defense and ensure security in Europe and noted that Ukrainian units could replace unspecified contingents of US forces in Europe in the future. Zelensky noted that there are several secret aspects of the plan that he has shared with Ukraine’s Western allies. Zelensky stated that Ukraine’s fate is connected to the fate of its neighbors in the Baltics, Balkans, Caucasus, and Central Asia and warned that Ukraine and the West must support Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity or risk future Russian aggression. Ukrainian and Western officials expressed support for Zelensky’s plan on October 16, and Zelensky noted that he will present the plan to the European Council on October 17.

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky presented Ukraine’s five-part Victory Plan aimed at winning the war by the end of 2025 to the Verkhovna Rada on October 16, which includes a promise to contribute experienced Ukrainian troops to defending NATO’s eastern flank following the resolution of the war in Ukraine.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin’s current theory of victory in Ukraine seeks to protract the war and posits that Russian forces can outlast Western support for Ukraine and collapse Ukrainian resistance by winning a war of attrition. Russia will likely face serious medium- and long-term constraints that will undermine this strategic effort, however.
  • Imprisoned ardent nationalist and former Russian officer Igor Girkin notably questioned the Kremlin’s articulated theory of victory and assessed that 2025 and possibly late 2024 will be “a serious test” for Russia because the Kremlin has yet to address medium- to long-term force-generation and defense-industrial-capacity constraints.
  • Girkin also assessed that Russian Summer–Fall 2024 offensive campaign did not accomplish its goals in the entire theater and is unlikely to do so ahead of the muddy season, although Russian forces are continuing intense offensive operations in several operational directions in Ukraine.
  • US President Joe Biden announced a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth $425 million following a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on October 16.
  • The South Korean Ministry of Defense (MoD) stated on October 16 that it is “closely” monitoring indications that North Korean troops are directly supporting Russia’s war effort in Ukraine amid reports that the Russian military is training North Korean soldiers.
  • Russian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast, near Kreminna, near Siversk, and near Toretsk.

(For full report:  https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-16-2024 )

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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

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International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
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