By Robert O. Freedman
The fall of the Assad regime in Syria was in many ways a godsend for Israel. Not only has Iranian and Hezbollah influence in Syria been largely removed, but the new transitional government in Syria, led by the Sunni Moslem Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) organization, considers the Shia Moslem government of Iran, which had been the major backer of Assad (along with Russia), its primary enemy. This coincides with the view of Israel, which also considers Iran to be its main enemy. Perhaps even more important, the HTS leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, has offered peace with Israel and has gone so far as to state, in a meeting with US Congressman Marlin Stutzman, that under the proper conditions Syria would be ready to join the Abraham Accords and normalize relations with Israel. To reinforce his new image of moderation, the one-time Al-Qaeda jihadist even invited a group of Syrian Jewish exiles back to Syria and urged them to reestablish the Syrian Jewish community, and he has arrested leaders of Palestinian terrorist organizations like Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General command, groups which are enemies of Israel.
Meanwhile, the new Syrian regime has begun to be reintegrated into the Arab World. It has been invited to the upcoming Arab Summit in Baghdad on May 17th, and Saudi Arabia and Qatar have agreed to pay Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank, thus enabling it to receive funding for reconstruction. Under these circumstances, with al-Sharaa offering peace to Israel, and the Arab world, with which Israel wants more agreements, now embracing his regime, one has to ask why the Israeli Government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not only spurned al-Sharaa’s peace offer, but has attacked Syrian military installations all over the country, seized the demilitarized zone set up between Syria and Israel after the Yom Kippur War of 1973, and actively aided, through bombing and other assistance, the Druze minority of Syria, which has been in conflict with the al-Sharaa government. Israel’s goal in Syria, as expressed by its leadership, is to keep Syria weak and divided so that it cannot pose a threat .
Why has the Israeli Government adopted this strategy toward Syria? There are several reasons. First, the trauma of the October 7, 2023 attack has generated the feeling that Israel needs buffer zones on its borders with Gaza, Lebanon and Syria to prevent future attacks like October 7th. Second, Netanyahu, and other observers both in Israel and the US, doubt that al-Sharaa has genuinely discarded his Jihadi past and one right-wing Israeli commentator, Amos Harel, has called the HTS regime “Jihadis in suits”. Netanyahu appears to feel that once al-Sharaa has unified the country and consolidated power over its many minorities (Druze, Kurds, Alawites, Turkomans etc.), it will prepare for war with Israel.
There are several problems with the Israeli Government’s analysis. First, while the HTS coalition does include foreign Jihadis, the main Jihadi groups have other targets than Israel. In addition, the Syrian Jihadis, whom al-Sharaa has to bring under tighter control, seem more concerned with revenge against the allies of the Assad regime inside Syria (Alawites and Druze) than in confronting Israel. Second, al-Sharaa faces a huge problem of reconstruction, with some analysts arguing that it will take $500 billion to rebuild Syria after its devastation during the Syrian civil war, a problem made worse by continued US sanctions. Third, given the recent internal clashes between government forces and the Alawites and Druze, as well as the continued existence of a powerful Syrian Kurdish militia, it will take a long time for al-Sharaa to centralize and integrate the country. Finally, the more Israel attacks Syria, the more likely al-Sharaa is to turn to his ally Turkey for aid, thus risking a war between Israel and Turkey
Under these circumstances, a wiser policy for Israel would be to stop bombing Syrian military bases and to begin negotiations with the al-Sharaa regime for the restoration of the demilitarized zone—which itself has served for many years as a useful buffer for Israel. Israel could also offer much needed humanitarian aid to Syria and even, if relations improve, help in the reconstruction of the country. This is an opportunity to turn a one-time enemy into a friend that Israel should not miss.
Dr. Robert O. Freedman teaches political science at Johns Hopkins University. His most recent book is “Israel Under Netanyahu.”
May 7, 2025