Large-scale military operation of Russian Federation against Ukraine is going
on. Situation remains complicated and has trends to further worsening.
Enemy continues advancing in order to surround and capture Kyiv, Kharkiv,
Kherson, Chernihiv, Mariupol and gain control over Black and Azov Seas’ shores of
Ukraine.
Considering failure in reaching their goals, Russian AF continue air and missile
strikes on inhabited areas of Ukrainian cities, in particular Kharkiv, Bila Tserkva,
Chernihiv, and Melitopol. Occupants maintain besiegement of Sumy, Lebedyn and
Okhtyrka. Aggressor continues regrouping of troops in order to proceed towards
Kyiv direction.
Despite the O.Lukashenko’s statement concerning absence of intensions to
joint Russian war against Ukraine on the Kremlin’s side, units of Belarusian Army
are concentrating near Ukrainian border.
In order to create the formal pretext for joining the war, Kremlin can organize
armed provocation on Belarusian territory under disguise of “Ukrainian saboteurs”.
Operational environment
There is a decrease in tempo of Russian forces offense due to the problems
with logistics supply (ammunition and fuel).
Moreover, we observe indications of enemy’s adjustment to the resistance of
Ukrainian defense forces and attempts to regain initiative. Russian Armed Forces
relocated their troops and draw up reserves for renewal of subunits combat
capabilities. There are additional reserves created on the territory of Russia from the
composition of naval infantry units and 14th AC of Northern Fleet.
Russian command started the deployment of Air Defense and Electronic
Warfare systems. We expect deployment of A2/AD zone around Kyiv.
On Polesian direction enemy is trying to strengthen their own positions down
the line Korosten – Prypiat to prevent Ukrainian Armed Forces from break through
and cut off Russian troops from Ukrainian-Belarus border.
On Crimean direction enemy is managing the issue of all-round support for its
own forces. For these purpose, occupational authorities are dealing with
reestablishment of railway network with Crimea (with railway station Salkovo, near
Chongar border crossing checkpoint) and also repair and reconstruction works on the
Melitopol airfield. Administrative control on the newly occupied territories is
established by units of Russian National Guard (“Rosgvardia”).
Enemy continues active implication of air and missile high precision weapon to
strike military objects, primarily airfields, Air Defense positions and civil
infrastructure objects in order to demoralize population. For instance, on the 1
st of
March, 5 Tu-22M3 have done air strikes from the airspace of Azov Sea on the radio
technical unit of Ukrainian Armed Forces near Uman and on the airfields near Uman,
Voznesensk and Kanatove.
At the same day, there was a missile strike with “Tochka-U” tactical missile
system on the private houses sector in Melitopol. However, Russian MoD spreads
information about targeting only military infrastructure, not civilian one.
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We expect increasing number of Strategic bombers flights near Ukrainian
border in terms of bringing Russian strategic deterrence forces to special mode of
combat duty. It will be used as additional threatening factor, primarily of Western
countries.
At the same time enemy suffers from heavy losses in personnel and military
equipment. For the purpose of hiding the death rate from Russian society, military
command uses medical infrastructure on the territory of Belarus (delivery of
wounded and injured). There are huge amount of seriously wounded servicemen in
local Belarusian hospitals. This situation significantly decreases the motivation of
Belarusian soldiers to partake in Russian armed aggression against Ukraine.
The breakdown of the “special military operation” terms Forces Kremlin to
mobilize human resource. Taking into consideration that Russian male population
tries to avoid the obtaining of draft notices and the visiting of military commissariats,
law-enforcement services provide special compulsion measures to make people join
security agencies.
Despite of the Armed Forces personnel losses, Putin has given and order to
Russian MoD S.Shoigu to take control over Ukrainian cities Kyiv and Kharkiv at any
cost.
At the same time Putin met S.Shoigu’s request concerning the increasing of the
troop’s number in “special military operation”.
Mobilization of additional personnel for military service is planned to begin in
the nearest terms. Within this framework:
mobilization plan – up to 500 thousand human resource in 30-40 daily term;
change of terms for spring recruitment from the 1st of April to the end of
February;
mass delivery of draft notices in military commissariats to men of recruitment
age and retiring from active duty;
At the same time Putin’s regime takes measures of pressure on the potential
“special military operation” participants. In particular, conscripts are forced to be
transferred to contract service without their consent. Russian authority also plans to
block personal bank accounts of people who are subject to mobilization. In case of
their mobilization, accounts are promised to be opened and cash benefits paid.
The Russian law-enforcement agencies (the Federal Security Service, the
Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Russian National Guard) received the order to
detain and move recruits to mobilization points.
The Russian authorities established regime of high terrorist activity throughout
the country to ensure rapid human resource mobilization. Counter-terrorist measures
are conducted in order to prevent the departure and evasion of people liable for
military service.
Kremlin suggests to confer a combat veteran status for servicemen and to
reserve over 5 milliards of roubles ($53 million) for these purposes in order to
increase motivation of the Russian population participation in the armed aggression
against Ukraine.
Humanitarian sphere
The of occupation troops of Russia continues to violate norms of international
humanitarian law, destroy a critical infrastructure and civil objects on territory of
Ukraine. During last day Armed forces of Russian Federation performed rocket and
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artillery strikes on administrative building and housings in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kalynsvka,
Brovary, Bila Tserkva, Vasylkiv, Mariupol, Kropyvnytskyi, Siverodonetsk, Kherson
and others.
In particular, as a result of shelling Kharkiv more than 30 civil persons died
and over 60 are injured, damaged building of Kharkiv region’s administration,
building of “The Kharkiv plant of a lifting-transport equipment LTD “, number of
apartments in different districts of the city; in Kherson – four persons are injured, two
nine-stored houses are damaged; in Dachne settlement (Odesa region) – one person
diet and two are injured, nine private houses are damaged.
From the beginning of the large-scale armed aggression of Russian Federation
about 20 Ukrainian children perished from the hands of aggressor.
Special sphere
Russian Federation continues to use subversion and reconnaissance groups
(SRGs) as well as its agents in order to destabilize the situation and creates necessary
conditions for further offensive actions in all directions. The enemy has sufficiently
increased the degree of aggression against local population, intensified the shelling of
civilian facilities and residential buildings by missiles. Russian servicemen shoot on
civilian vehicles, peaceful people and loot. Russian agents continue to target aviation
and artillery strikes in Ukrainian cities via installing special beacons. The enemy
continues to conduct intensive psychological measures of impact in Ukrainian and
Russian information space – both for disinformation/demoralization of Ukrainian
citizens and for legitimization of war together with decrease of protest intentions
within the Russian Federation.