Executive Summary
— Russia targeted Ukraine’s energy grid in a large-scale air raid that featured Iranian drones and North Korean missiles.
— Kyiv’s F-16 fighter aircraft defended against the attack.
— North Korean troops reportedly engaged in combat operations in Russia’s Kursk region.
— The chaotic situation in Syria continued to divert the Kremlin’s attention from Ukraine.
1. Russia Targets Ukraine’s Energy Grid with Iranian Drones and North Korean Missiles
On December 13, Russia launched a massive drone and missile salvo against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. The strike, Russia’s twelfth large-scale attack on Ukraine’s energy grid in 2024, involved nearly 200 drones and 100 missiles.
Weapons from Russia’s closest allies helped shape the strike package, which included North Korean KN-23 tactical ballistic missiles and Iranian Shahed-baseline loitering munitions. The strike also featured Russian Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles, Kh-101 cruise missiles released by Tu-95 strategic bomber aircraft, Kalibr naval cruise missiles launched from the Black Sea, and Iskander tactical ballistic missiles.
Ukrainian defenses scored interceptions of the incoming projectiles in Kyiv Oblast and near Ivano-Frankivsk, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Lviv, and Odesa. According to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the nation’s growing F-16 fleet played a critical role in halting the missiles.
As in previous winters, Ukraine’s energy grid bore the brunt of the strike. Thermal power plants operated by DTEK, the largest private investor in the energy industry in Ukraine, were among Russia’s highest-priority targets. The Russian drone and missile strike also caused the Polish Air Force to scramble its quick reaction alert fighters as the incoming munitions reached western Ukraine.
As winter conditions worsen, Russia will likely continue to strike Ukraine where it is most vulnerable. With Russia and Iran’s joint Shahed drone plant in Tatarstan producing at increased capacity and North Korea deepening its involvement in the war, it appears the Kremlin will be able to sustain this high operational tempo of long-range salvos.
2. North Korean Troops Engage in Combat Operations in Kursk
President Zelenskyy publicly acknowledged that a forward-deployed North Korean contingent has been engaged in combat operations in Russia’s Kursk region. An unauthenticated video circulating on social media reportedly shows North Korean troops, believed to be operating under Russian command, fighting in infantry roles in the theater of operations. Ukrainian formations have also released digital intelligence depicting heavy combat in Kursk.
To date, North Korea has supplied Russian formations with heavy artillery, land warfare assets, rockets, and missiles. As previous Hudson assessments have highlighted, North Korea will likely send more equipment and troops to Russia in the coming months. While it remains to be seen whether its servicemen will remain in Kursk or fight in occupied Ukrainian territory, Pyongyang’s soldiers will gain invaluable combat experience alongside their Russian comrades. Ominously, North Korea has reached the doorstep of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
3. Battlefield Assessment
While no drastic changes occurred on the battlefield last week, the outlook continued to deteriorate for Ukrainian formations across multiple fronts. Russian forces made gains near Pokrovsk, while Siversk, Lymansk, Chasiv Yar, and Velyka Novosilka saw heavy combat activity. In the south, the Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) conducted glide bomb salvos. Additionally, the Russian high command has reportedly deployed special technology teams to convert captured Ukrainian drones, including Baba Yaga night bombers, into Russian assets.
The evolving situation in Syria is diverting the Kremlin’s attention from Ukraine. Moscow continues to send high-end equipment, such as the S-400 strategic surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, to its Khmeimim Air Base on the Mediterranean Sea. Satellite imagery has also revealed Russian Il-76 and An-124 cargo aircraft preparing for heavy lift duties, suggesting that a large-scale withdrawal may soon occur, though Syria’s new government has not formally asked Russian forces to leave the country. Russian vessels in limbo continue to loiter off the Syrian coast, avoiding the docks at Russia’s Tartus naval base.