Critical Trends in the Russia-Ukraine War: A Review of 2025 and Prospects for 2026
Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu reviews the most consequential developments from the past year of war in Ukraine and identifies their significance for 2026.
Key Trends
— The Kursk incursion: North Korean support in the Russian region of Kursk helped erase Ukraine’s brief territorial hold—and Kyiv’s diplomatic insurance.
— Expanded Russian drone production: Russia heightened the operational tempo of its drone warfare operations, driven largely by increased production of Iran-designed Shahed systems.
— Russian drones threaten Europe: Moscow probed North Atlantic Treaty Organization airspace with drone incursions.
— Ukraine strikes sanctioned tankers: Kyiv grew the geographic scope of its maritime pressure on Russia, striking a shadow fleet vessel in the Mediterranean.
— Counter-drone developments: A volunteer drone warfare group called the Wild Hornets developed a cost-effective Shahed-killer drone, presaging the future of Ukrainian air defenses.
1. Russia and North Korea Recapture Kursk
In spring 2025, Russian forces backed by the elite North Korean 11th Corps recapturedKursk. Kyiv’s control of the enclave was its main leverage against being forced into ceding territory to achieve a frozen conflict, or worse.
The joint counteroffensive marked a significant escalation in North Korea’s involvement. The hermit kingdom moved from arms transfers and advisory support to active involvement in combat operations. In 2026 North Korea could further expand its involvement and even deploy troops in Ukraine.
2. Shahed Drones Shape the Battle Space
In the second half of 2025 Russia launched over five thousand Shahed-type drones per month at Ukrainian population centers and critical infrastructure—double its 2024 operational tempo. Images suggest Moscow has significantly grown its Alabuga drone plant and developed new manufacturing sites across Russia.
Russia further advanced its drone warfare model, which relies heavily on mass deployment of these low-cost airframes. The most notable developments were the additions of thermobaric warheads, cluster-munition payloads, and R-60 air-to-air missiles. While the model’s strength lies in its ability to impose sustained attrition at a favorable cost ratio, these technological innovations expanded the Russian drone threat in Ukraine and beyond.
3. Russia Probes NATO Airspace
In September about 20 Russian unmanned aerial vehicles, which North Atlantic Treaty Organization sources assessed to be Shahed decoys known as Gerberas, entered Polish airspace. The incident prompted a high-profile response from Polish and NATO forces, including Dutch F-35 aircraft, a German Patriot air and missile defense battery, and airborne early warning and control (AWACS) and aerial refueling platforms under NATO command.
This probing mission gave the Russian military valuable operational insight. It allowed Moscow to observe NATO’s response times, command coordination, quick reaction alert procedures, and escalation thresholds. The incident also had political consequences. It sped up policy debates within the European Union on a layered air defense project known as the drone wall.
This drone incursion was the war’s most significant kinetic spillover into NATO territory thus far. It reflected a deliberate escalation by Moscow and signaled that the alliance should not take for granted that the conflict will be confined to Ukraine’s borders.
4. Russia’s Rubicon Center Advances Drone Operations
In August 2024, by order of Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, the Russian Ministry of Defense established the Rubicon Center to formalize drone warfare lessons from Ukraine. The center sought to move beyond dispersed, tactical experimentation to grow the importance of robotic warfare in Russia’s conventional force structure.
Rubicon’s main mission is to train drone operators for combat roles and innovate new drone warfare systems to shape novel concepts of operations (CONOPS). Rubicon is not a special forces unit. Instead, it focuses on standardization, doctrine development, and scalability across the Russian military. It also serves as a development hub, testing new drone systems, refining operational art, and researching artificial intelligence in robotic warfare.
Rubicon played a key role in targeting Ukrainian drone operators, enhancing unmanned systems capabilities, and integrating drones across the Russian Armed Forces. But the center’s impact extends beyond the invasion of Ukraine. In 2026 Rubicon’s influence on Russian drone warfare is likely to increase significantly, posing a broader threat to NATO nations and other US allies.
5. Ukraine Takes Maritime Drone Strikes to the Mediterranean
Since late 2022 Russia has built a shadow shipping network of hundreds of vessels, which now transports about 3.7 million barrels of oil per day. This represents roughly 65 percent of its seaborne exports and generates $87 to $100 billion of annual revenue—more than the total economic and military aid the West has provided to Ukraine sincethe war began.
In December Ukraine escalated its campaign against Russia’s crucial hydrocarbon revenues by targeting sanctions-evading shadow fleet tankers in the Mediterranean. This incident marked a significant expansion in the geographic scope of Kyiv’s maritime pressure. Ukrainian forces used unmanned aerial systems in a multi-stage operation to strike the Oman-flagged crude oil tanker Qendil, demonstrating a limited but vital ability to project force far from Ukrainian territory. By operating in the Mediterranean, Ukraine signaled that Russian vessels can no longer rely on distance for protection. In 2026 Ukraine is likely to keep targeting this maritime revenue system.
6. Kyiv Begins to Reverse Shahed Drone Dominance
Ukraine produced and deployed the STING counter-drone system, developed by the Wild Hornets volunteer group. STING is designed to restore balance to the cost equation, enabling Ukraine to counter mass drone attacks without depleting high-end missile stocks.
The STING system successfully targeted thousands of Shahed drones, including jet-powered variants. In 2026 groups like the Wild Hornets are likely to develop and proliferate more such systems, which Ukraine will integrate more closely into its layered air defense networks.