Ukraine Military Situation Report | January 8
Below Hudson Senior Fellow Can Kasapoğlu offers a military situation report about the war in Ukraine.
Executive Summary
— The Russian Navy has no Improved Kilo–class submarines left in the Mediterranean Sea after the Assad regime’s fall from power in Syria.
— Russia is advancing in Ukraine, particularly in Kurakhove and Toretsk.
— Ukrainian forces are making a tactical push in Kursk, likely to grant Kyiv diplomatic leverage.
— Ukraine scored the first confirmed naval unmanned-on-manned aerial kill in military history.
1. Assad’s Fall Disrupts Russian Submarine Deployments in the Mediterranean
Bashar al-Assad’s fall from power in Syria marks another setback for Russia’s overseas military posture. After the regime’s collapse, the Russian Navy’s last Improved Kilo–class submarine in the Mediterranean Sea departed the Soviet-remnant Tartous naval base. On January 2, the Portuguese Navy spotted the Novorossiysk sailing through Gibraltar en route to the Baltics.
Since 2013 the Russian Black Sea Fleet has rotated its Improved Kilos to the Tartous base. In 2015 Russian submarines launched Kalibr naval cruise missiles at targets in Syria, a milestone for Moscow’s nonnuclear long-range strike prowess. And in 2017 Jens Stoltenberg, then the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s secretary general, warned that Russian submarine activity in the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean was at its highest level since the Cold War.
The Black Sea Fleet has six Improved Kilo–class submarines, four of which remain inthe Black Sea. The Ukrainian military has repeatedly struck and disabled one, the Rostov-on-Don, with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Along with the Novorossiysk, the Krasnodar is forward deployed to the Baltic Sea.
This leaves Russia with only three operational Improved Kilos in the Black Sea and none in the Mediterranean, jeopardizing the Kremlin’s ability to project power. Russia’s Tartous and Khmmeimim bases functioned as staging points for Russian combat operations in Syria and logistical hubs for Moscow’s geopolitical ambitions in Africa.
2. Ukraine’s 155th Mechanized Brigade Demonstrates Ukraine’s Force Generation Struggles
The Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation is investigating elements of Kyiv’s French-trained 155th Mechanized Brigade for going absent without official leave (AWOL) or deserting the force. The press reported that the missing elements were deployed to the heavily reinforced yet beleaguered Pokrovsk theater.
Nicknamed “Anne of Kyiv” after a Kyivan Rus princess who became queen of France after marrying King Henry I, the 155th Brigade is a vital demonstration of Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense. The unit is armed with French AMX-10 armored fighting vehicles and CAESAR howitzers, as well as German Leopard 2A4 main battle tanks. It is part of a NATO project whereby alliance members train and equip individual Ukrainian combat formations.
The Ukrainian military’s force generation strategy of building new combat brigades rather than reinforcing existing ones has sparked debates among observers. Many wonder whether inexperienced leaders can ensure unit cohesion, discipline, and warfighting capability against mounting Russian pressure.
3. Battlefield Assessment
The crucial Kharkiv front has remained relatively calm. But the situation looks grim for Ukrainian defensive operations in Pokrovsk, Velyka Novosilka, Kurakhove, and Toretsk. Russian forces have advanced steadily, particularly in Toretsk.
Kurakhove has been hanging in the balance, with conflicting reports about whether the Russian military has seized the town. Current force-on-force and force-to-terrain ratios and Ukraine’s lack of solid defensive positions suggest that Kurakhove will soon fall.
In Kursk, Ukrainian forces have heightened their efforts to capture more Russian territory. Ukraine likely hopes to reverse the momentum on this front and strengthen its position in potential ceasefire talks under the incoming second Trump administration.
4. Drone Warfare Update
In a significant drone warfare development, Ukraine scored the first confirmed naval unmanned-on-manned aerial kill in military history. Ukrainian Defense Intelligence (GUR) shot down a Russian Mi-8 helicopter with a Magura V5 unmanned surface vehicle in the Black Sea. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s heavy electronic warfare activity has been effective against Russian drone warfare in Kursk. In response, Russia continues to deploy drones controlled through fiber-optic cables.