June 16, 2024

Institute for the Study o f War: Arab, global South nations boycott Ukraine Peace Summit declaration

Institute for the Study of War

The vast majority of the countries and international organizations that participated in the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16 signed a joint communique on June 16 reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The communique also reaffirmed support for Ukrainian operation and control over the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to ensure the safety of nuclear energy and installations, “free full, and safe” commercial navigation in the Black Sea to ensure global food security, the exchange of all prisoners of war (POWs), and the return of all “deported and unlawfully displaced Ukrainian children” and other unlawfully detained Ukrainian civilians. Over 80 countries and international organizations signed the communique, although Saudi Arabia, India, South Africa, Armenia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Brazil (which attended the summit as an “observer”) were among the countries that did not endorse the communique. The Ukrainian President’s Office emphasized that the purpose of the summit was to facilitate “fair peace … based on the United Nations (UN) Charter and international law,” highlighting Ukraine’s effort to garner support from the international community in ending the war on terms that do not violate international law by compromising Ukraine’s territory integrity or sovereignty. Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte stated on June 16 at the summit that “Russia should not be at the [negotiating] table now” and that there will only be peace in Ukraine “when Russia agrees to international principles and the UN Charter.” ISW continues to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not interested in good-faith negotiations and only feigns interest in negotiations in specific instances as part of a wider informational effort to seduce the West to preemptively make concessions that would violate Ukraine’s sovereignty. Putin is unlikely to be interested in good faith negotiations for the foreseeable future given that he recently outlined a theory of Russian victory in Ukraine based on the assumption that Russian forces are capable of indefinite creeping advances on the battlefield to outlast Western support for Ukraine.

A limited prison break and hostage situation at a Russian pretrial detention center in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, prompted Russian ultranationalist complaints highlighting Russia’s failure to crack down against domestic Islamic extremism following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack. Russian state media reported on June 16 that around six prisoners at Pretrial Detention Center No. 1 in Rostov-on-Don broke out of their cells and took two employees of the pretrial detention center hostage in the central courtyard. Rosgvardia and Russian Federal Penitentiary Service forces later stormed the pretrial detention center and reportedly killed the detainees, freeing the hostages. Russian state media claimed that the prisoners had links to the Islamic State (IS) or had been convicted of terrorism-related charges prior to the June 16 incident. ISW is unable to verify the identities or affiliations of these prisoners or the extent of IS involvement in the prison break at the time of this publication.

Key Takeaways:

  • The vast majority of the countries and international organizations that participated in the Ukraine-initiated Global Peace Summit in Switzerland on June 15-16 signed a joint communique on June 16 reaffirming support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
  • A limited prison break and hostage situation at a Russian pretrial detention center in Rostov-on-Don, Rostov Oblast, prompted Russian ultranationalist complaints highlighting Russia’s failure to crack down against domestic Islamic extremism following the March 22 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack.
  • The Kremlin and Kremlin affiliates continue efforts to use Russia’s relationship with Republika Srpska (the Serbian political entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina) to destabilize the Balkans.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Vovchansk and Donetsk City.

  • The Russian military reportedly continues to coerce Russian conscripts into signing military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), likely as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.

For full report:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-16-2024

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