March 22, 2022

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 

Institute for the Study of War

Mason Clark, George Barros, and Kateryna StepanenkoMarch 22, 6:00 pm ET
Russian forces did not make any major advances on March 22 and Ukrainian forces conducted local counterattacks northwest of Kyiv and around Mykolayiv. Russian forces around Kyiv and other major cities are increasingly prioritizing long-range bombardment after the failure of Russian ground offensives but are unlikely to force major cities to surrender in this manner. Russian forces did not conduct any offensive operations toward the northeastern Ukrainian cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, or Kharkiv in the last 24 hours. Russian forces continued to further reduce the Mariupol pocket.Key TakeawaysRussian forces are likely moving to a phase of protracted bombardment of Ukrainian cities due to the failure of Russia’s initial campaign to encircle and seize Kyiv and other major cities.Ukrainian forces conducted successful localized counterattacks northwest of Kyiv.Russian forces in northeastern Ukraine did not conduct any offensive operations in the past 24 hours.Ukrainian forces repelled several Russian assaults in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the past 24 hours.Russian forces continue to make slow but steady progress reducing the Mariupol pocket.Russia may have failed to appoint an overall commander for its invasion of Ukraine, leading to Russian axes of advance competing for limited supplies and failing to synchronize their operations.
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