September 7, 2023

The Return of Great Power Competition: How Your Economic World is About to Change

Patrick Fearon Hernandez

Patrick Hernandez, a market strategist for Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, addresses the resurgence of great power competition on the world stage and its impacts on the global economy, with a particular focus on the dynamics involving Russia, China, and the United States. Hernandez, with a background at NATO and the CIA, analyzes the interplay between global economic and geopolitical developments and their implications for investment strategies. His talk delves into the nuances of China’s rise to great power status, underscored by its expansive diplomatic efforts, military advancements, and assertive foreign policy. He highlights China’s influence in various international organizations, its efforts to promote Chinese culture and perspectives globally, and the transformation of their diplomatic and military posture. The discussion also touches on the U.S. ‘s evolving role as a global hegemon, the implications of shifting U.S. policies, and the resultant opportunities seized by China and Russia. Hernandez provides a detailed analysis of China’s military capabilities, particularly its naval power, and the implications for potential conflicts, notably around Taiwan. This presentation offers a blend of geopolitical analysis, economic insights, and investment implications, highlighting the connections between global power shifts and economic trends. Following the talk, Hernandez engages in a Q&A session, addressing questions about the global economic landscape and the strategic calculus of major world powers.

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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

At the heart of this crisis are the political triggers. Armed conflicts, ethnic or religious persecutions, and systemic human rights abuses force millions to flee their homes in terror. Many are displaced within their own national boundaries, while others seek asylum abroad. If these factors change as a result of political shifts at home or the pressures from abroad, they can return to their homes. Forced displacement is thus different from environmentally driven displacement, as victims of climate change may never be able to return to their homes.

The ramifications of any sort of displacement are profound, not just for those directly affected, but also for host communities and countries. Overburdened infrastructures, socio-economic strains, and cultural tensions can arise, necessitating comprehensive strategies to foster harmony and integration. Yet the root causes of forced displacement can be remedied with a concerted focus by local players and international diplomacy.

Organizations like Refugees International play a crucial role in this arena, advocating for the rights and needs of the displaced, conducting on-the-ground assessments, and influencing policymakers to take informed actions. Their relentless work underscores the gravity of the situation and the urgency ofinternational cooperation. But they, too, are overwhelmed by the rapid expansion of the crisis.

International Humanitarian Law (IHL), with its core principles centered on the protection of civilians during conflicts, plays a pivotal role in this discourse. Yet, despite clear legal frameworks, compliance remains
inconsistent. This initiative emphasizes the importance of upholding and reinforcing these international standards.

It’s not just about recognizing the problem; it’s about active engagement. We urge governments, organizations, and individuals to prioritize the rights and needs of the forced displaced. Through collective efforts, informed policies, and sustained advocacy, we can shift the narrative from passive acknowledgment to proactive intervention.