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December 17, 2024

WHAT HAPPENED IN SYRIA? 

Dr. Robert O. Freedman 

Johns Hopkins University 

WHY DID THE REGIME COLLAPSE SO QUICKLY? 

  • It is hard to determine how rotten an authoritarian regime is until it collapses 
  • Poorly paid soldiers had no incentive to fight for Assad 
  • The regime depended for its income on the export of the drug captagon which caused problems with Syria’s neighbors, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. However, the drug profits were not transferred to Syrian society 
  • The main external supporters of the regime, Russia, Iran and Hezbollah were either badly damaged by war (Hezbollah), unable to transfer troops to Syria for fear of Israeli air attacks (Iran) or otherwise occupied (Russia with Ukraine). Thus, unlike the situation in 2015, external allies could not help Assad 

WHO ARE THE MAIN WINNERS 

Turkey (Turkiye) 

  • Turkey has direct influence over the free Syrian Army and some influence over Hayat Tahrir al-Shams. It is thus likely to replace Iran as the major foreign influencer in Syria 
  • Turkey will now have a freer hand to oppose the Syrian Kurds and their military force, the SNF, since they are no longer linked to the Assad regime. However, the SNF has been backed by the US which sees it as its ally against a resurgent ISIS. Turkish leader Erdogan may wait until Trump takes office as he has been talking about pulling US forces out of Syria(900 troops)  
  • Turkish firms may now have the inside track on getting contracts for the rebuilding of Syria 
  •  Some of the three million plus Syrian refugees in Turkey, who have caused social problems there, may now go home 

ISRAEL  

  • The weakening, or possible elimination, of the Iranian position in Syria, will sever the connection between Iran and Hezbollah for military equipment, forcing Iran to ship by sea which can be interdicted.
  • However, if the currently “moderate” HTS returns to its al-Qaeda roots, Israel will be faced with a Sunni Islamist or Jihadist foe on its northwest border. 
  • For this reason Israel has taken preemptive action:
    • Seizing the top of Mount Hermon 
    • Taking control of the 1974 demilitarized zone and establishing physical barriers there 
    • Bombing Syrian military depots and airports to ensure that Syrian weapons, including poison gas , do not fall into the hands of potential enemies—but will this alienate the new Syrian regime? 

The United States 

  • In its zero-sum-game competition with Russia in the Middle East, Russia’s loss of Syria as a long term ally (going back to 1970)—along with its possible loss of its major air base at Hmeinem, and its major naval base at Tartus is a major victory for the US.
  • The weakening of Iran, and its loss of its major ally Syria, is a major victory for the US. But the danger for the US, as it is for Israel, is the possibility that the regime that takes power in Syria will be an Islamist, or Jihadist one. 

THE BIG LOSERS 

Iran 

  • Its main ally, the Syria regime of Bashar Assad, has been eliminated. Even though Assad did not help Iran in its conflict with Israel, it was still a strategic and economic partner. 
  • Its main link to Hezbollah, its key partner in the so-called  “Axis of Resistance”, appears to have been severed.
  • With the weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah, and the elimination of the Assad regime, the “Axis of Resistance” has been gravely weakened, leaving Iran only with the Houthis in Yemen and some pro-Iranian militias.
  • Under the circumstances Iran appears to have two choices:
    1. Given the poor economic conditions in Iran, and the restive population (water shortages, Islamic head dress issues [Hijab], and other societal problems, Iran may choose to negotiate a new nuclear deal with the US in an effort to get sanctions lifted.
    2. Iran may strengthen its ties with Russia, get SAM-400 OR SAM-500 surface to air missile systems and  SU-35 fighter bombers as well as move to nuclear weapons. 

Russia 

  • Putin had invested  weapons and rubles, as well as Russian prestige in supporting the Assad regime and even intervened militarily to save him in 2015. However, his unwillingness to help Assad when he was under attack from the HTS and the Free Syrian Army has to raise questions about Russia’s reliability as an ally. 
  • It is still unclear whether Russia will be able to retain its air base at Hmeinim and its Naval base at Tartus. If Russia is forced out of its bases, it will be a major blow to its strategic position in the Middle East. 

Hezbollah 

  • Already badly damaged by Israeli military and other actions (assassinations, exploding pagers etc.), Hezbollah now appears it will be cut off from overland supply through Syria. 
  • The key question is whether Hezbollah is sufficiently weakened that a new political order in Lebanon will emerge?

KNOWN UNKNOWNS (Key questions) 

  1. Will HTS, and its transitional government to be headed by the governor of Idlib, Mohamed al-Bashir, really have an  inclusive government to include minority Kurds(10% of the population);Christians (10% of the population) and especially Alawites (10% of the population and the ethnic/religious group from which  the Assad clan came) or will HTS revert to its Jihadist origins?
  2. Will Turkish leader Erdogan move against the Syrian Kurds  now in a major way or wait until Trump takes office? 
  3. Will Russia retain its bases in Tartus and Hmeinim? 
  4.  Will the coalition of HTS and the Free Syrian Army , which have clashed in the past, be able to maintain their working relationship? 

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Wilson Center

Forced displacement represents one of the most pressing humanitarian issues of our time. Individuals and families, torn from the fabric of their communities, find themselves navigating a world of uncertainty, often without basic necessities or a clear path to safety. There are currently some 110 million forced displaced, and this number is growing by 10 million each year!

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