“Iran is an ancient Middle East power, but its halcyon days of empire are centuries in the past. Today, it is a revisionist actor with hegemonic ambitions, ruled by a corrupt and self-aggrandizing theocracy. Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran has sought to export its version of Shia Islam to often unwilling neighbors. At the policy level, the fundamental goals of Iran’s statecraft have been to eject the United States from the Middle East, destroy the state of Israel, and preserve the regime.”

This is the opening paragraph from a recent essay by our next speaker – Retired General Frank McKenzie, who served as commander of the U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2021.

His message is startling:  in addition to Iran’s ability to “sprint” to nuclear weapons development, it has produced a sophisticated conventional arsenal that takes advantage of its home production of military drones, theater ballistic missiles and land attack cruise missiles.  The drones alone, if sent in a “swarm,” can inundate even American air defenses. As a result, the United States can no longer count on air superiority even over American forces and bases. The Iranian “triad” of unmanned systems can then be deployed to attack air bases, ground and naval bases and population centers.

And the threat is growing “every day.”  In the Middle East region, Iran’s missiles and drones are now an “existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel.”

What is the U.S. doing in response? Successive American presidents have been sending “clumsy and confusing” messages about U.S. intentions to “pivot” to Asia, which countries in the region read as abandonment.

There’s one bright spot, for with American encouragement, beginning in the Trump administration, Arab states in the region are now working with Israel to map out a genuine multilateral response. It hasn’t yet advanced to the political level so that countries can respond to any threat together. That is the near-term challenge, especially with Israel in the throes of civic chaos.

Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. is a graduate of the Citadel and was commissioned into the Marine Corps in 1979 as an infantry officer. He has commanded at platoon, company and battalion levels and led a Marine Expeditionary Unit into Afghanistan in 2004 and Iraq in 2005-2006.  His connection with the Central Command, which covers the Middle East, began in 2010, when he was assigned as the Director, Strategy, Plans, and Policy (J-5). In 2014, he was promoted to lieutenant general and took command of the U.S. Marine forces in the Central Command.

In 2017 he was named director, Joint Staff, and promoted to the rank of General.  He served as commander of the Central Command from March 2019 to April 2022, when he retired from the Marine Corps after 42 years of service.

General McKenzie became the Executive Director of the University of South Florida’s Global and National Security Institute and in May 2022 he also became Executive Director of the Florida Center for Cybersecurity, also known as Cyber Florida.

General McKenzie will address the Baltimore Council on Foreign Affairs on August 23 over Zoom.  His title: “Iran, the United States, and the Middle East.” Please join us!