Iran has had a very bad year, sustaining severe military setbacks at the hands of Israel and the United States and a dramatic loss of political influence throughout the Middle East. The economy is in dire shape, and the clerical government is deeply unpopular; there are power and water shortages, and the country is under severe sanctions from the United States and Europe. The one hopeful sign for Iran’s rulers is that the population didn’t revolt after the fighting in June, but rather seemed to rally around the flag. “Could the setbacks be a catalyst for change?” the Financial Times asks in a recent article.

We’ve invited Iran expert Kamran Bokhari, Phd. of the New Lines Institute to address the Baltimore Council on September 24th about Iran’s setbacks and whether they could lead to a more pragmatic policy in Tehran, possibly even to openings for the United States and its regional allies. Dr. Bokhari says this depends on the distribution of power in what he calls Iran’s “hybrid” system of government, where a Shiite Islamist theocracy is woven into western republicanism, and it depends on the succession to Ayatollah Khamenei, the 86-year-old Supreme leader. It also depends on the answer to the question: who in the Iranian system is to blame for the policy of investing heavily in regional proxies while leaving the homeland without a viable air defense network?

His answer is the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which began as a militia at the Iranian revolution in 1979 and became more powerful than the regular armed forces. The IRGC directed Hezbollah in Lebanon, subsidized Hamas in Gaza, and helped keep Syria’s Bashar al Assad in power until his overthrow last December. IRGC’s leaders were decimated by precise Israeli targeting during the 12-day conflict in June and the militia had to turn over its positions of power to leaders of the regular armed forces. That may lead to changes in Iran’s policies.

Dr. Bokhari is a key founder of the New Lines Institute, a Washington D.C. think tank. Previously, Bokhari served as New Lines Institute’s Director of Analytical Development (2019-23) and played a key role in establishing the Institute’s Graduate Program in Strategy & Policy. Dr. Bokhari also is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University and the University of Delaware. He publishes a weekly essay for Geopolitical Futures and is a columnist with Forbes. A collection of Dr. Bokhari’s recent publications are included below.

Please join us September 24th at our new venue – St. Mary’s Seminary on Roland Ave. in Baltimore, where parking is free and plentiful. It begins with refreshments at 5:15pm, with the presentation beginning at 6:00pm. We’ll put out a separate notice with additional details of the venue. You can also watch the presentation on Zoom.

Contact programs@bcfausa.org for more information or to register for this event.